Revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics of the general public's panic levels during the pandemic crisis in China
The existing crisis management research mostly reveals the patterns of the public's panic levels from the perspectives of public management, sociology, and psychology, only a few studies have revealed the spatiotemporal characteristics. Therefore, this study investigates the spatial distribution and temporal patterns and influencing factors on the general public's panic levels using the Baidu Index data from a geographic perspective. The results show that: (1) The public's panic levels were significantly correlated with the spatial distance between the epicenter and the region of investigation, and with the number of confirmed cases in different regions when the pandemic began to spread. (2) Based on the spatial distance between the epicenter and the region, the public's panic levels in different regions could be divided into three segments: core segment (0-500 km), buffer segment (500-1300 km), and peripheral segment (>1300 km). The panic levels of different people in the three segments were consistent with the Psychological Typhoon Eye Effect and the Ripple Effect can be detected in the buffer segment. (3) The public's panic levels were strongly correlated with whether the spread of the infectious disease crisis occurred and how long it lasted. It is suggested that crisis information management in the future needs to pay more attention to the spatial division of control measures. The type of crisis information released to the general public should depend on the spatial relationship associated with the place where the crisis breaks out.
Deep learning fusion of satellite and social information to estimate human migratory flows
Human migratory decisions are driven by a wide range of factors, including economic and environmental conditions, conflict, and evolving social dynamics. These factors are reflected in disparate data sources, including household surveys, satellite imagery, and even news and social media. Here, we present a deep learning-based data fusion technique integrating satellite and census data to estimate migratory flows from Mexico to the United States. We leverage a three-stage approach, in which we (1) construct a matrix-based representation of socioeconomic information for each municipality in Mexico, (2) implement a convolutional neural network with both satellite imagery and the constructed socioeconomic matrix, and (3) use the output vectors of information to estimate migratory flows. We find that this approach outperforms alternatives by approximately 10% ( ), suggesting multi-modal data fusion provides a valuable pathway forward for modeling migratory processes.
Are spatial patterns of Covid-19 changing? Spatiotemporal analysis over four waves in the region of Cantabria, Spain
This research approaches the empirical study of the pandemic from a social science perspective. The main goal is to reveal spatiotemporal changes in Covid-19, at regional scale, using GIS technologies and the emerging three-dimensional bins method. We analyze a case study of the region of Cantabria (northern Spain) based on 29,288 geocoded positive Covid-19 cases in the four waves from the outset in March 2020 to June 2021. Our results suggest three main spatial processes: a reversal in the spatial trend, spreading first followed by contraction in the third and fourth waves; then the reduction of hot spots that represent problematic areas because of high presence of cases and growing trends; and finally, an increase in cold spots. All this generates relevant knowledge to help policy-makers from regional governments to design efficient containment and mitigation strategies. Our research is conducted from a geoprevention perspective, based on the application of targeted measures depending on spatial patterns of Covid-19 in real time. It represents an opportunity to reduce the socioeconomic impact of global containment measures in pandemic management.
Exploring the spatial disparity of home-dwelling time patterns in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic via Bayesian inference
In this study, we aim to reveal hidden patterns and confounders associated with policy implementation and adherence by investigating the home-dwelling stages from a data-driven perspective via Bayesian inference with weakly informative priors and by examining how home-dwelling stages in the USA varied geographically, using fine-grained, spatial-explicit home-dwelling time records from a multi-scale perspective. At the U.S. national level, two changepoints are identified, with the former corresponding to March 22, 2020 (9 days after the White House declared the National Emergency on March 13) and the latter corresponding to May 17, 2020. Inspections at U.S. state and county level reveal notable spatial disparity in home-dwelling stage-related variables. A pilot study in the Atlanta Metropolitan area at the Census Tract level reveals that the self-quarantine duration and increase in home-dwelling time are strongly correlated with the median household income, echoing existing efforts that document the economic inequity exposed by the U.S. stay-at-home orders. To our best knowledge, our work marks a pioneering effort to explore multi-scale home-dwelling patterns in the USA from a purely data-driven perspective and in a statistically robust manner.
Assessing work resumption in hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic in China using multiscale geographically weighted regression
The resumption of work and production is one of the key issues during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) post-epidemic phase. We used location-based service data of mobile devices to assess the work resumption of 22,098 hospitals in mainland China. The multiscale influences of the determinants on work resumption in hospitals, including medical-service capacity, human movement, and epidemic severity, were examined using the multiscale geographically weighted regression technique. This study provides a novel insight into the assessment of work resumption in hospitals and its determinants, and is flexible to be extended to evaluate the work resumption of other industries. The findings can introduce helpful information for other countries to implement the strategies of work recovery during the post-epidemic phase.
Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of risk communication for maps depicting the hazard of COVID-19
COVID-19 maps convey hazard and risk information to the public, which play an important role in the risk communication for individual protection. The aim of this study is to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of communicating the specific risk of COVID-19 maps. By testing 71 subjects from Wuhan, China, this study explored how color schemes (cool, warm, and mixed colors) and data presentation forms (choropleth maps, graduated symbol maps) influence visual cognition patterns, risk perception, comprehension, and subjective satisfaction. The results indicated that the warm scheme (yellow/red) has significant strengths in visual cognition and understanding, and the choropleth map (vs. the graduated symbol map) has significant strengths in risk expression. On subjective satisfaction, the combination of the mixed scheme (blue/yellow/red) and the choropleth map scored highest mean value. These results have implications for enhancing the focused functions of COVID-19 maps that fit different terms: in the early and medium terms of disease transmission, choropleth maps with warm or cool colors should be considered as a priority design for their better risk perception. When the epidemic conditions are on the upturn, a better reading experience combination of choropleth maps with mixed colors can be considered.
Urban spatial epidemic simulation model: A case study of the second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, China
The second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing was controlled by non-pharmaceutical interventions, which avoided a second pandemic. Until mass vaccination achieves herd immunity, cities are at risk of similar outbreaks. It is vital to quantify and simulate Beijing's non-pharmaceutical interventions to find effective intervention policies for the second outbreak. Few models have achieved accurate intra-city spatio-temporal epidemic spread simulation, and most modeling studies focused on the initial pandemic. We built a dynamic module of infected case movement within the city, and established an urban spatially epidemic simulation model (USESM), using mobile phone signaling data to create scenarios to assess the impact of interventions. We found that: (1) USESM simulated the transmission process of the epidemic within Beijing; (2) USESM showed the epidemic curve and presented the spatial distribution of epidemic spread on a map; and (3) to balance resources, interventions, and economic development, nucleic acid testing intensity could be increased and restrictions on human mobility in non-epidemic areas eased.
A conceptual model for automating spatial network analysis
Spatial network analysis is a collection of methods for measuring accessibility potentials as well as for analyzing flows over transport networks. Though it has been part of the practice of geographic information systems for a long time, designing network analytical workflows still requires a considerable amount of expertise. In principle, artificial intelligence methods for workflow synthesis could be used to automate this task. This would improve the (re)usability of analytic resources. However, though underlying graph algorithms are well understood, we still lack a conceptual model that captures the required methodological know-how. The reason is that in practice this know-how goes beyond graph theory to a significant extent. In this article we suggest interpreting spatial networks in terms of quantified relations between spatial objects, where both the objects themselves and their relations can be quantified in an extensive or an intensive manner. Using this model, it becomes possible to effectively organize data sources and network functions towards common analytical goals for answering questions. We tested our model on 12 analytical tasks, and evaluated automatically synthesized workflows with network experts. Results show that standard data models are insufficient for answering questions, and that our model adds information crucial for understanding spatial network functionality.
Analysis of spatiotemporal mobility of shared-bike usage during COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing
The entire world is experiencing a crisis in public health and the economy owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding human mobility during the pandemic helps to formulate interventional strategies and resilient measures. The widely used bike-sharing system (BSS) could illustrate the activities of urban dwellers over time and space in big cities; however, it is rarely reported in epidemiological research. In this article, we analyze the BSS data to examine the human mobility of shared-bike users, detecting the key time nodes of different pandemic stages and demonstrating the evolution of human mobility owing to the onset of the COVID-19 threat and administrative restrictions. We assessed the impact of the pandemic using the results of co-location analysis between shared-bike usage and points of interest. Our results demonstrate that the pandemic has reduced overall bike usage by 64.8%; however, a subsequent average increase (15.9%) in shared-bike usage has been observed, suggesting partial recovery of productive and residential activities, although far from normal times. These findings could be a reference for epidemiological research, and thereby aid policymaking in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak and other epidemic events at the city scale.
Comparing the space-time patterns of high-risk areas in different waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
This study compares the space-time patterns and characteristics of high-risk areas of COVID-19 transmission in Hong Kong between January 23 and April 14 (the first and second waves) and between July 6 and August 29 (the third wave). Using space-time scan statistics and the contact tracing data of individual confirmed cases, we detect the clusters of residences of, and places visited by, both imported and local cases. We also identify the built-environment and demographic characteristics of the high-risk areas during different waves of COVID-19. We find considerable differences in the space-time patterns and characteristics of high-risk residential areas between waves. However, venues and buildings visited by the confirmed cases in different waves have similar characteristics. The results can inform policymakers to target mitigation measures in high-risk areas and at vulnerable groups, and provide guidance to the public to avoid visiting and conducting activities at high-risk places.
Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 via integrating diffusive graph embedding and compartmental models
In order to find useful intervention strategies for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), it is vital to understand how the disease spreads. In this study, we address the modeling of COVID-19 spread across space and time, which facilitates understanding of the pandemic. We propose a hybrid data-driven learning approach to capture the mobility-related spreading mechanism of infectious diseases, utilizing multi-sourced mobility and attributed data. This study develops a visual analytic approach that identifies and depicts the strength of the transmission pathways of COVID-19 between areal units by integrating data-driven deep learning and compartmental epidemic models, thereby engaging stakeholders (e.g., public health officials, managers from transportation agencies) to make informed intervention decisions and enable public messaging. A case study in the state of Colorado, USA was performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed transmission modeling approach in understanding the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 at the neighborhood level. Transmission path maps are presented and analyzed, demonstrating their utility in evaluating the effects of mitigation measures. In addition, integrated embeddings also support daily prediction of infected cases and role analysis of each area unit during the transmission of the virus.
A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 in the second half of 2020
COVID-19 has infected over 163 million people and has resulted in over 3.9 million deaths. Regarding the tools and strategies to research the ongoing pandemic, spatial analysis has been increasingly utilized to study the impacts of COVID-19. This article provides a review of 221 scientific articles that used spatial science to study the pandemic published from June 2020 to December 2020. The main objectives are: to identify the tools and techniques used by the authors; to review the subjects addressed and their disciplines; and to classify the studies based on their applications. This contribution will facilitate comparisons with the body of work published during the first half of 2020, revealing the evolution of the COVID-19 phenomenon through the lens of spatial analysis. Our results show that there was an increase in the use of both spatial statistical tools (e.g., geographically weighted regression, Bayesian models, spatial regression) applied to socioeconomic variables and analysis at finer spatial and temporal scales. We found an increase in remote sensing approaches, which are now widely applied in studies around the world. Lockdowns and associated changes in human mobility have been extensively examined using spatiotemporal techniques. Another dominant topic studied has been the relationship between pollution and COVID-19 dynamics, which enhance the impact of human activities on the pandemic's evolution. This represents a shift from the first half of 2020, when the research focused on climatic and weather factors. Overall, we have seen a vast increase in spatial tools and techniques to study COVID-19 transmission and the associated risk factors.
Analyzing spatial mobility patterns with time-varying graphical lasso: Application to COVID-19 spread
This work applies the time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL) method, an extension of the traditional graphical lasso approach, to address learning time-varying graphs from spatiotemporal measurements. Given georeferenced data, the TVGL method can estimate a time-varying network where an edge represents a partial correlation between two nodes. To achieve this, we use a COVID-19 data set from the Argentine province of Chaco. As an application, we use the estimated network to study the impact of COVID-19 confinement measures and evaluate whether the measures produced the expected result.
The US COVID Atlas: A dynamic cyberinfrastructure surveillance system for interactive exploration of the pandemic
Distributed spatial infrastructures leveraging cloud computing technologies can tackle issues of disparate data sources and address the need for data-driven knowledge discovery and more sophisticated spatial analysis central to the COVID-19 pandemic. We implement a new, open source spatial middleware component (libgeoda) and system design to scale development quickly to effectively meet the need for surveilling county-level metrics in a rapidly changing pandemic landscape. We incorporate, wrangle, and analyze multiple data streams from volunteered and crowdsourced environments to leverage multiple data perspectives. We integrate explorative spatial data analysis (ESDA) and statistical hotspot standards to detect infectious disease clusters in real time, building on decades of research in GIScience and spatial statistics. We scale the computational infrastructure to provide equitable access to data and insights across the entire USA, demanding a basic but high-quality standard of ESDA techniques. Finally, we engage a research coalition and incorporate principles of user-centered design to ground the direction and design of Atlas application development.
Mask R-CNN-based building extraction from VHR satellite data in operational humanitarian action: An example related to Covid-19 response in Khartoum, Sudan
Within the constraints of operational work supporting humanitarian organizations in their response to the Covid-19 pandemic, we conducted building extraction for Khartoum, Sudan. We extracted approximately 1.2 million dwellings and buildings, using a Mask R-CNN deep learning approach from a very high-resolution satellite image with 0.5 m pixel resolution. Starting from an untrained network, we digitized a few hundred samples and iteratively increased the number of samples by validating initial classification results and adding them to the sample collection. We were able to strike a balance between the need for timely information and the accuracy of the result by combining the output from three different models, each aiming at distinctive types of buildings, in a post-processing workflow. We obtained a recall of 0.78, precision of 0.77 and score of 0.78, and were able to deliver first results in only 10 days after the initial request. The procedure shows the great potential of convolutional neural network frameworks in combination with GIS routines for dwelling extraction even in an operational setting.
GIS as a heuristic tool to interpret ancient historiography: A case study to reconstruct what could plausibly have happened according to the accounts in New Testament texts
This article examines how GIS can be used as a heuristic tool to reconstruct spatial-temporal events from narratives in order to examine whether a scenario is conceivable within the narrative world. The narrative about Paul's escape from Berea (Acts 17:14-15) is used as a case study. Several interpretive issues related to spatial and temporal questions surround these texts. In the case study, three methods are applied: (a) least-cost path analysis on elevation data to construct journeys and travel times for Roman roads; (b) network analysis to find seafaring routes valid for ancient times; and (c) the integration of spatial and temporal data in a space-time cube. Our main finding is that the method yields insights into the spatial-temporal dynamics of the narrative. This helps a modern reader to better understand the narrative conceivability of a story in the mind of a first-century reader.
Network Optimization Approach to Delineating Health Care Service Areas: Spatially Constrained Louvain and Leiden Algorithms
Constructing service areas is an important task for evaluating geographic variation of health care markets. This study uses cancer care as an example to illustrate the methodology, with the nine-state Northeast Region of the U.S. as the study area. Two recent algorithms of network community detection are implemented to account for additional constraints such as spatial connectivity and threshold region size. The refined methods are termed "spatially-constrained Louvain (ScLouvain)" and "spatially-constrained Leiden (ScLeiden)" algorithms, corresponding to their predecessors Louvain and Leiden algorithms, respectively. Both are network optimization methods that maximize flows within delineated communities while minimizing inter-community flows. The service areas derived by the methods, termed "Cancer Service Areas (CSAs)", are more favorable than the commonly used comparable unit, Hospital Referral Regions (HRRs) for evaluating cancer-specific variation in care. Between the two, the ScLeiden performs better than ScLouvain in modularity, localization index and computational efficiency, and thus is recommended as an effective and efficient approach for defining functional regions.
Loose programming of GIS workflows with geo-analytical concepts
Loose programming enables analysts to program with concepts instead of procedural code. Data transformations are left underspecified, leaving out procedural details and exploiting knowledge about the applicability of functions to data types. To synthesize workflows of high quality for a geo-analytical task, the semantic type system needs to reflect knowledge of geographic information systems (GIS) at a level that is deep enough to capture geo-analytical concepts and intentions, yet shallow enough to generalize over GIS implementations. Recently, core concepts of spatial information and related geo-analytical concepts were proposed as a way to add the required abstraction level to current geodata models. The core concept data types (CCD) ontology is a semantic type system that can be used to constrain GIS functions for workflow synthesis. However, to date, it is unknown what gain in precision and workflow quality can be expected. In this article we synthesize workflows by annotating GIS tools with these types, specifying a range of common analytical tasks taken from an urban livability scenario. We measure the quality of automatically synthesized workflows against a benchmark generated from common data types. Results show that CCD concepts significantly improve the precision of workflow synthesis.
What drives disease flows between locations?
Communicable diseases 'flow' between locations. These flows dictate where and when certain communities will be affected. While the prediction of disease flows is essential for the timely intervention of epidemics, few studies have addressed this critical issue. This study predicts disease flows during an epidemic by considering the epidemiological, network, and temporal contextual factors using a deep learning approach. A series of scenario analyses helps identify the effects of these contextual factors on disease flows. Results show that the extended spatial-temporal effect of the epidemiological factors stimulates disease flows. The compound effects of the network factors enhance the transmission efficiency of these flows. Lastly, the temporal effect accelerates the combined effects of epidemiological and network factors on the flows. Findings of this study reveal the intricate nature of disease flows and lay a solid foundation for real-time surveillance of epidemics and pandemics to inform timely interventions for a broad range of communicable diseases.
CityJSON in QGIS: Development of an open-source plugin
When QGIS 3.0 was released in 2018, it added support for 3D visualisation. At the same time, CityJSON has been developing as an easy-to-use JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) encoding for 3D city models using the CityGML 2.0 data model. Together, this opened the possibility to support semantic 3D city models in the popular open-source GIS software for the first time. In order to add support for 3D city models in QGIS, we have developed a plugin that enables CityJSON datasets to be loaded. The plugin parses a CityJSON file and analyses its tree structure to identify all city objects. Then, the geometry and attributes of every city object are transformed into QGIS features and divided into layers according to user preferences. CityJSON parsing was proven to be straightforward and consistent when tested against several open datasets. One of the biggest challenges we faced, though, was mapping CityJSON's hierarchical data structure to the relational model of QGIS. We undertook this issue by providing various methods on how geometries from the model are loaded as QGIS features. We intend to use the plugin for educational purposes in our university and we believe it can be proven a worthy tool for researchers and practitioners.
Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID-19 lockdown strategies
This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a "one-size-fits-all" approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.