TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE

What Drives Counter-Extremism? The Extent of P/CVE Policies in the West and Their Structural Correlates
Shanaah S and Heath-Kelly C
Counter-extremism (P/CVE) policies have shot to global prominence rapidly, yet there are large discrepancies in their implementation both between, and inside, countries. In this paper, we construct and present a robust index of P/CVE policies in Western countries (N = 38), based on data submitted by national experts, which we then use to test three hypothesized structural correlates of the extent of P/CVE implementation: threat of terrorism (measured as the number of past attacks/victims), size of Muslim minorities (Muslim communities have been "securitised" as potential threats in the post 9/11 period), and neoliberal governance (drawing on criminological literature that connects neoliberalism to anticipatory crime control). We find the first two structural factors to be positively and significantly correlated to the intensity of P/CVE deployment, while neoliberal governance negatively and significantly. In the discussion, we highlight the usefulness of a complementary in-depth qualitative research inspired by these findings.
The Impact of Public Holidays on Insurgent Attacks: The Case of Thailand
Chinda C, Unal C, Marchment Z and Gill P
This paper analyzes Malay-Muslim insurgents' attacks in the three southern provinces of Thailand between the years of 2010-2021 and identifies the role of public holidays on the level of violence. The existing literature suggests terrorists consider holidays during attack planning. However, there is a lack of agreement on the effect direction. Some studies have found that holidays are a force for peace while others have found they can act as trigger for more violence. Applying environmental criminology to the timing of terrorist attacks, we argue that the type of the holiday matters. Therefore, we analyze public (secular), Islamic, and Buddhist holidays separately. We show that Islamic holidays witness increased violence while Buddhist and public holidays see reductions. We discuss that Islamic holidays increase the Malay-Muslim insurgents' motivation to attack by assigning to those dates a higher symbolic value. On the other hand, on Buddhist and public holidays, insurgents may hesitate to attack to avoid the adverse effects of losing public support and triggering a backlash. The results demonstrate the necessity to analyze the temporal dynamics of terrorist attacks.
Supporting Women and Children Returning from Violent Extremist Contexts: Proposing a 5R Framework to Inform Program and Policy Development
Ellis BH, King M, Cardeli E, Christopher E, Davis S, Yohannes S, Bunn M, McCoy J and Weine S
Women and children returning from areas formerly controlled by the Islamic State typically have experienced high levels of trauma and indoctrination, further complicating politically fraught efforts at reintegration and resettlement. Consequently, countries around the world are grappling with how best to manage the return of these women and children. To help better understand which types of programming can contribute to the successful, non-violent reintegration of these individuals, we incorporated ideas from existing Repatriation and Rehabilitation (R&R) literature, field practitioners, R&R subject matter experts, and literature from adjacent fields (e.g., refugee resettlement, criminal justice, psychological resilience) into a recommended best practice approach to supporting returning women and children. We propose a shift from "R&R" programming to what we call the "5R" framework: Repatriation/ Resettlement, Reintegration, Rehabilitation, and Resilience. This shift provides conceptual clarity related to how different program elements target proximal goals (e.g., wellbeing and personal safety, belonging and opportunity, non-violence, and dignity), and how programming can shift from more centrally- and government-held services to informal and community-based supports.
Assessing Violence Risk among Far-Right Extremists: A New Role for Natural Language Processing
Ebner J, Kavanagh C and Whitehouse H
A growing body of research suggests that an individual's willingness to fight and die for groups is rooted in the fusion of personal and group identities, especially when the group is threatened, violence is condoned, and the group's enemies are dehumanised or demonised. Here we consider whether the language used by extremists can help with early detection of these risk factors associated with violent extremism. We applied a new fusion-based linguistic violence risk assessment framework to a range of far-right extremist online groups from across the violence spectrum. We conducted an R-based NLP analysis to produce a Violence Risk Index, integrating statistically significant linguistic markers of terrorist manifestos as opposed to non-violent communiqués into one weighted risk assessment score for each group. The language-based violence risk scores for the far-right extremist groups were then compared to those of non-extremist control groups. We complemented our quantitative NLP analysis with qualitative insights that contextualise the violence markers detected in each group. Our results show that the fusion markers combined with several other variables identified across the different online datasets are indeed indicative of the real-world violence level associated with the relevant groups, pointing to new ways of detecting and preventing violent terrorism.
Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Women and Children Returning from Violent Extremist Contexts: A Rapid Review to Inform Program and Policy Development
Bunn M, Christopher E, Polutnik-Smith C, McCoy J, Hanneke R, King M, Ellis BH, Cardeli E and Weine S
This rapid review used a systematic approach to examine the available literature on rehabilitation and reintegration (R&R) programs for women and children returning from contexts of violent extremism, examining common assumptions, inputs, activities and outcomes across diverse settings. Fifty-one documents including peer reviewed articles and grey literature were included in the analysis. The most common program activities identified included mental health services, community level social programs, promoting school and vocational enrollment, regular health services, and parenting training & education, though there was a lack of consensus around core program components. The analysis points to the need for a robust set of inputs and resources to implement R&R programs including government officials, child welfare, mental health professionals, teachers, law enforcement, healthcare, community leaders, and extended family. The review also uncovered a number of gaps. This includes the need to create clear and analytically distinct definitions of rehabilitation and reintegration that are applicable and relevant to key stakeholders, delineating age-appropriate activities and outcomes for young children, youth, and adults, defining frameworks for service delivery and coordination of stakeholders, and placing R&R programs within existing domains of public safety and restorative justice.