Mineral carbon storage in mafic and ultramafic rock masses has the potential to be an effective and permanent mechanism to reduce anthropogenic CO. Several successful pilot-scale projects have been carried out in basaltic rock (e.g., CarbFix, Wallula), demonstrating the potential for rapid CO sequestration. However, these tests have been limited to the injection of small quantities of CO. Thus, the longevity and feasibility of long-term, large-scale mineralization operations to store the levels of CO needed to address the present climate crisis is unknown. Moreover, CO mineralization in ultramafic rocks, which tend to be more reactive but less permeable, has not yet been quantified. In these systems, fractures are expected to play a crucial role in the flow and reaction of CO within the rock mass and will influence the CO storage potential of the system. Therefore, consideration of fractures is imperative to the prediction of CO mineralization at a specific storage site. In this review, we highlight key takeaways, successes, and shortcomings of CO mineralization pilot tests that have been completed and are currently underway. Laboratory experiments, directed toward understanding the complex geochemical and geomechanical reactions that occur during CO mineralization in fractures, are also discussed. Experimental studies and their applicability to field sites are limited in time and scale. Many modeling techniques can be applied to bridge these limitations. We highlight current modeling advances and their potential applications for predicting CO mineralization in mafic and ultramafic rocks.

Convergent plate boundaries are key sites for continental crustal formation and recycling. Quantifying the evolution of crustal thickness and paleoelevation along ancient convergent margins represents a major goal in orogenic system analyses. Chemical and in some cases isotopic compositions of igneous rocks formed in modern supra-subduction arcs and collisional belts are sensitive to Moho depths at the location of magmatism, implying that igneous suites from fossil orogens carry information about crustal thickness from the time they formed. Several whole-rock chemical parameters correlate with crustal thickness, some of which were calibrated to serve as "mohometers," that is, quantitative proxies of paleo-Moho depths. Based on mineral-melt partition coefficients, this concept has been extended to detrital zircons, such that combined chemical and geochronological information extracted from these minerals allows us to reconstruct the crustal thickness evolution using the detrital archive. We discuss here the mohometric potential of a variety of chemical and isotopic parameters and show that their combined usage improves paleocrustal thickness estimates. Using a MATLAB app developed for the underlying computations, we present examples from the modern and the deeper time geologic record to illustrate the promises and pitfalls of the technique. Since arcs are in isostatic equilibrium, mohometers are useful in reconstructing orogenic paleoelevation as well. Our analysis suggests that many global-scale correlations between magma composition and crustal thickness used in mohometry originate in the sub-arc mantle; additional effects resulting from intracrustal igneous differentiation depend on the compatible or incompatible behavior of the involved parameters.

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO, characterized by an effective sensitivity . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Alkalinity, the excess of proton acceptors over donors, plays a major role in ocean chemistry, in buffering and in calcium carbonate precipitation and dissolution. Understanding alkalinity dynamics is pivotal to quantify ocean carbon dioxide uptake during times of global change. Here we review ocean alkalinity and its role in ocean buffering as well as the biogeochemical processes governing alkalinity and pH in the ocean. We show that it is important to distinguish between measurable titration alkalinity and charge balance alkalinity that is used to quantify calcification and carbonate dissolution and needed to understand the impact of biogeochemical processes on components of the carbon dioxide system. A general treatment of ocean buffering and quantification via sensitivity factors is presented and used to link existing buffer and sensitivity factors. The impact of individual biogeochemical processes on ocean alkalinity and pH is discussed and quantified using these sensitivity factors. Processes governing ocean alkalinity on longer time scales such as carbonate compensation, (reversed) silicate weathering, and anaerobic mineralization are discussed and used to derive a close-to-balance ocean alkalinity budget for the modern ocean.

Studies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) have progressed considerably during the past decades in observations, numerical modeling, and theoretical understanding. Many theoretical attempts have been made to identify the most essential processes responsible for the existence of the MJO. Criteria are proposed to separate a hypothesis from a theory (based on the first principles with quantitative and testable assumptions, able to predict quantitatively the fundamental scales and eastward propagation of the MJO). Four MJO theories are selected to be summarized and compared in this article: the skeleton theory, moisture-mode theory, gravity-wave theory, and trio-interaction theory of the MJO. These four MJO theories are distinct from each other in their key assumptions, parameterized processes, and, particularly, selection mechanisms for the zonal spatial scale, time scale, and eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparison of the four theories and more recent development in MJO dynamical approaches lead to a realization that theoretical thinking of the MJO is diverse and understanding of MJO dynamics needs to be further advanced.

Human activity has led to increased atmospheric concentrations of many gases, including halocarbons, and may lead to emissions of many more gases. Many of these gases are, on a per molecule basis, powerful greenhouse gases, although at present-day concentrations their climate effect is in the so-called weak limit (i.e., their effect scales linearly with concentration). We published a comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies (RE) and global warming potentials (GWP) for around 200 such compounds in 2013 (Hodnebrog et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20013). Here we present updated RE and GWP values for compounds where experimental infrared absorption spectra are available. Updated numbers are based on a revised "Pinnock curve", which gives RE as a function of wave number, and now also accounts for stratospheric temperature adjustment (Shine & Myhre, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001951). Further updates include the implementation of around 500 absorption spectra additional to those in the 2013 review and new atmospheric lifetimes from the literature (mainly from WMO (2019)). In total, values for 60 of the compounds previously assessed are based on additional absorption spectra, and 42 compounds have REs which differ by >10% from our previous assessment. New RE calculations are presented for more than 400 compounds in addition to the previously assessed compounds, and GWP calculations are presented for a total of around 250 compounds. Present-day radiative forcing due to halocarbons and other weak absorbers is 0.38 [0.33-0.43] W m, compared to 0.36 [0.32-0.40] W m in IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018), which is about 18% of the current CO forcing.

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time. Despite the advances, gaps in the understanding of contemporary sea-level change remain and inhibit the ability to predict how the relevant processes may lead to future change. These gaps arise in part due to the complexity of the linkages between the drivers of sea-level change. Here we review the individual processes which lead to sea-level change and then describe how they combine and vary regionally. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea-level change and to identify and discuss limitations and uncertainty in our understanding of these processes. Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inhibit the ability to provide the needed information for comprehensive planning efforts are of particular focus. Finally, a goal of this paper is to highlight the role of the expanded sea-level observation network-particularly as related to satellite observations-in the improved scientific understanding of the contributors to regional sea-level change.

Spaceborne radars offer a unique three-dimensional view of the atmospheric components of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Existing and planned spaceborne radar missions provide cloud and precipitation information over the oceans and land difficult to access in remote areas. A careful look into their measurement capabilities indicates considerable gaps that hinder our ability to detect and probe key cloud and precipitation processes. The international community is currently debating how the next generation of spaceborne radars shall enhance current capabilities and address remaining gaps. Part of the discussion is focused on how to best take advantage of recent advancements in radar and space platform technologies while addressing outstanding limitations. First, the observing capabilities and measurement highlights of existing and planned spaceborne radar missions including TRMM, CloudSat, GPM, RainCube, and EarthCARE are reviewed. Then, the limitations of current spaceborne observing systems, with respect to observations of low-level clouds, midlatitude and high-latitude precipitation, and convective motions, are thoroughly analyzed. Finally, the review proposes potential solutions and future research avenues to be explored. Promising paths forward include collecting observations across a gamut of frequency bands tailored to specific scientific objectives, collecting observations using mixtures of pulse lengths to overcome trade-offs in sensitivity and resolution, and flying constellations of miniaturized radars to capture rapidly evolving weather phenomena. This work aims to increase the awareness about existing limitations and gaps in spaceborne radar measurements and to increase the level of engagement of the international community in the discussions for the next generation of spaceborne radar systems.

Dry deposition of ozone is an important sink of ozone in near surface air. When dry deposition occurs through plant stomata, ozone can injure the plant, altering water and carbon cycling and reducing crop yields. Quantifying both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake accurately is relevant for understanding ozone's impact on human health as an air pollutant and on climate as a potent short-lived greenhouse gas and primary control on the removal of several reactive greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Robust ozone dry deposition estimates require knowledge of the relative importance of individual deposition pathways, but spatiotemporal variability in nonstomatal deposition is poorly understood. Here we integrate understanding of ozone deposition processes by synthesizing research from fields such as atmospheric chemistry, ecology, and meteorology. We critically review methods for measurements and modeling, highlighting the empiricism that underpins modeling and thus the interpretation of observations. Our unprecedented synthesis of knowledge on deposition pathways, particularly soil and leaf cuticles, reveals process understanding not yet included in widely-used models. If coordinated with short-term field intensives, laboratory studies, and mechanistic modeling, measurements from a few long-term sites would bridge the molecular to ecosystem scales necessary to establish the relative importance of individual deposition pathways and the extent to which they vary in space and time. Our recommended approaches seek to close knowledge gaps that currently limit quantifying the impact of ozone dry deposition on air quality, ecosystems, and climate.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5-30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller-scale SMB processes.

The cloud droplet number concentration (N ) is of central interest to improve the understanding of cloud physics and for quantifying the effective radiative forcing by aerosol-cloud interactions. Current standard satellite retrievals do not operationally provide N , but it can be inferred from retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ ) cloud droplet effective radius (r ) and cloud top temperature. This review summarizes issues with this approach and quantifies uncertainties. A total relative uncertainty of 78% is inferred for pixel-level retrievals for relatively homogeneous, optically thick and unobscured stratiform clouds with favorable viewing geometry. The uncertainty is even greater if these conditions are not met. For averages over 1° ×1° regions the uncertainty is reduced to 54% assuming random errors for instrument uncertainties. In contrast, the few evaluation studies against reference in situ observations suggest much better accuracy with little variability in the bias. More such studies are required for a better error characterization. N uncertainty is dominated by errors in r , and therefore, improvements in r retrievals would greatly improve the quality of the N retrievals. Recommendations are made for how this might be achieved. Some existing N data sets are compared and discussed, and best practices for the use of N data from current passive instruments (e.g., filtering criteria) are recommended. Emerging alternative N estimates are also considered. First, new ideas to use additional information from existing and upcoming spaceborne instruments are discussed, and second, approaches using high-quality ground-based observations are examined.

The measurement and simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has matured rapidly over the last decade, with long-term datasets and comprehensive modeling capabilities now available. Theories for water vapor isotopic composition have been developed by extending the theories that have been used for the isotopic composition of precipitation to include a more nuanced understanding of evaporation, large-scale mixing, deep convection, and kinetic fractionation. The technologies for in-situ and remote sensing measurements of water vapor isotopic composition have developed especially rapidly over the last decade, with discrete water vapor sampling methods, based on mass spectroscopy, giving way to laser spectroscopic methods and satellite- and ground-based infrared absorption techniques. The simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has evolved from General Circulation Model (GCM) methods for simulating precipitation isotopic composition to sophisticated isotope-enabled microphysics schemes using higher-order moments for water- and ice-size distributions. The incorporation of isotopes into GCMs has enabled more detailed diagnostics of the water cycle and has led to improvements in its simulation. The combination of improved measurement and modeling of water vapor isotopic composition opens the door to new advances in our understanding of the atmospheric water cycle, in processes ranging from the marine boundary layer, through deep convection and tropospheric mixing, and into the water cycle of the stratosphere. Finally, studies of the processes governing modern water vapor isotopic composition provide an improved framework for the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy records of the hydrological cycle.

Polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field are a major feature of the Earth's dynamo. Questions remain regarding the dynamical processes that give rise to reversals and the properties of the geomagnetic field during a polarity transition. A large number of paleomagnetic reversal records have been acquired during the past 50 years in order to better constrain the structure and geometry of the transitional field. In addition, over the past two decades, numerical dynamo simulations have also provided insights into the reversal mechanism. Yet despite the large paleomagnetic database, controversial interpretations of records of the transitional field persist; they result from two characteristics inherent to all reversals, both of which are detrimental to an ambiguous analysis. On the one hand, the reversal process is rapid and requires adequate temporal resolution. On the other hand, weak field intensities during a reversal can affect the fidelity of magnetic recording in sedimentary records. This paper is aimed at reviewing critically the main reversal features derived from paleomagnetic records and at analyzing some of these features in light of numerical simulations. We discuss in detail the fidelity of the signal extracted from paleomagnetic records and pay special attention to their resolution with respect to the timing and mechanisms involved in the magnetization process. Records from marine sediments dominate the database. They give rise to transitional field models that often lead to overinterpret the data. Consequently, we attempt to separate robust results (and their subsequent interpretations) from those that do not stand on a strong observational footing. Finally, we discuss new avenues that should favor progress to better characterize and understand transitional field behavior.

For over 16 years, the Precipitation Radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite detected the three-dimensional structure of significantly precipitating clouds in the tropics and subtropics. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies using the TRMM radar data to present a global picture of the variation of convection throughout low latitudes. The multiyear data set shows convection varying not only in amount but also in its very nature across the oceans, continents, islands, and mountain ranges of the tropics and subtropics. Shallow isolated raining clouds are overwhelmingly an oceanic phenomenon. Extremely deep and intense convective elements occur almost exclusively over land. Upscale growth of convection into mesoscale systems takes a variety of forms. Oceanic cloud systems generally have less intense embedded convection but can form very wide stratiform regions. Continental mesoscale systems often have more intense embedded convection. Some of the most intense convective cells and mesoscale systems occur near the great mountain ranges of low latitudes. The Maritime Continent and Amazonia exhibit convective clouds with maritime characteristics although they are partially or wholly land. Convective systems containing broad stratiform areas manifest most strongly over oceans. The stratiform precipitation occurs in various forms. Often it occurs as quasi-uniform precipitation with strong melting layers connected with intense convection. In monsoons and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, it takes the form of closely packed weak convective elements. Where fronts extend into the subtropics, broad stratiform regions are larger and have lower and sloping melting layers related to the baroclinic origin of the precipitation.

Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

Volume-area power law scaling, one of a set of analytical scaling techniques based on principals of dimensional analysis, has become an increasingly important and widely used method for estimating the future response of the world's glaciers and ice caps to environmental change. Over 60 papers since 1988 have been published in the glaciological and environmental change literature containing applications of volume-area scaling, mostly for the purpose of estimating total global glacier and ice cap volume and modeling future contributions to sea level rise from glaciers and ice caps. The application of the theory is not entirely straightforward, however, and many of the recently published results contain analyses that are in conflict with the theory as originally described by Bahr et al. (1997). In this review we describe the general theory of scaling for glaciers in full three-dimensional detail without simplifications, including an improved derivation of both the volume-area scaling exponent and a new derivation of the multiplicative scaling parameter . We discuss some common misconceptions of the theory, presenting examples of both appropriate and inappropriate applications. We also discuss potential future developments in power law scaling beyond its present uses, the relationship between power law scaling and other modeling approaches, and some of the advantages and limitations of scaling techniques.

Discussion of climate change on a range of time scales has tended to focus on carbon dioxide and a changing greenhouse effect. Because carbon dioxide couples climate to ocean, land, and biota, it has appealed to scientists with an interest in the whole Earth system. Carbon dioxide has left a geological record in fossils, isotopes, and sediments, so we can reasonably expect to reconstruct its history. While important questions of detail remain to be resolved, many published applications of carbon cycle modelling suggest that we understand the biogeochemical cycles of carbon well enough to estimate carbon dioxide concentrations in the past and the future. Furthermore, we have an excellent instrumental record of recent changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. While these considerations make carbon dioxide attractive to paleoclimatologists, they do not necessarily make it a major component of climate change. I shall argue in this paper that clouds deserve much more attention than they have been getting.