COVID-19 and Public Transportation: Current Assessment, Prospects, and Research Needs
The COVID-19 pandemic poses a great challenge for contemporary public transportation worldwide, resulting from an unprecedented decline in demand and revenue. In this paper, we synthesize the state-of-the-art, up to early June 2020, on key developments regarding public transportation and the COVID-19 pandemic, including the different responses adopted by governments and public transportation agencies around the world, and the research needs pertaining to critical issues that minimize contagion risk in public transportation in the so-called post-lockdown phase. While attempts at adherence to physical distancing (which challenges the very concept of mass public transportation) are looming in several countries, the latest research shows that for closed environments such as public transportation vehicles, the proper use of face masks has significantly reduced the probability of contagion. The economic and social effects of the COVID-19 outbreak in public transportation extend beyond service performance and health risks to financial viability, social equity, and sustainable mobility. There is a risk that if the public transportation sector is perceived as poorly transitioning to post-pandemic conditions, that viewing public transportation as unhealthy will gain ground and might be sustained. To this end, this paper identifies the research needs and outlines a research agenda for the public health implications of alternative strategies and scenarios, specifically measures to reduce crowding in public transportation. The paper provides an overview and an outlook for transit policy makers, planners, and researchers to map the state-of-affairs and research needs related to the impacts of the pandemic crisis on public transportation. Some research needs require urgent attention given what is ultimately at stake in several countries: restoring the ability of public transportation systems to fulfill their societal role.
Public Transit Equity Analysis at Metropolitan and Local Scales: A Focus on Nine Large Cities in the US
Recent studies on transit service through an equity lens have captured broad trends from the literature and national-level data or analyzed disaggregate data at the local level. This study integrates these methods by employing a geostatistical analysis of new transit access and income data compilations from the Environmental Protection Agency. By using a national data set, this study demonstrates a method for income-based transit equity analysis and provides results spanning nine large auto-oriented cities in the US. Results demonstrate variability among cities' transit services to low-income populations, with differing results when viewed at the regional and local levels. Regional-level analysis of transit service hides significant variation through spatial averaging, whereas the new data employed in this study demonstrates a block-group scale equity analysis that can be used on a national-scale data set. The methods used can be adapted for evaluation of transit and other modes' transportation service in areas to evaluate equity at the regional level and at the neighborhood scale while controlling for spatial autocorrelation. Transit service equity planning can be enhanced by employing local Moran's I to improve local analysis.
Planning for Bike Share Connectivity to Rail Transit
Bike sharing can play a role in providing access to transit stations and then to final destinations, but early implementation of these systems in North America has been opportunistic rather than strategic. This study evaluates local intermodal plan goals using trip data and associated infrastructure such as transit stops and bike share station locations in Austin, Texas, and Chicago, Illinois. Bike sharing use data from both cities suggest a weak relationship with existing rail stations that could be strengthened through collaborative, intermodal planning. The study suggests a planning framework and example language that could be tailored to help address the linkage between bike sharing and transit. Rather than an exhaustive study of the practice, this study provides evidence from these two cities that identify opportunities to improve intermodal planning. Cities that are planning or expanding a bike sharing system should consider carefully how to leverage this mode with existing modes of transport. Regardless of a city's status in implementing a bike sharing system, planners can leverage information on existing transport systems for planning at regional and local levels.
The Causal Effect of Bus Rapid Transit on Changes in Transit Ridership
Numerous studies have reported ridership increases along routes when Bus rapid transit (BRT) replaces conventional bus service, but these increases could be due simply to broader temporal trends in transit ridership. To address this limitation, we compared changes in ridership among routes where BRT was implemented to routes where BRT was planned or already existed in King County, Washington. Ridership was measured at 2010, 2013, and 2014. Ridership increased by 35% along routes where BRT was implemented from 2010 to 2013 compared to routes that maintained conventional bus service. Ridership increased by 29% along routes where BRT was implemented from 2013 to 2014 compared to consistent existing BRT service. These results provide stronger evidence for a causal relationship between BRT and increased transit ridership and a more accurate estimate of the independent effect of BRT on ridership.
Will transit recover? A retrospective study of nationwide ridership in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic
Although the COVID-19 pandemic highly impacted transit ridership as people reduced or stopped travel, these changes occurred at different rates in different regions across the United States. This study explores the impacts of COVID-19 on ridership and recovery trends for all federally funded transit agencies in the United States from January 2020 to June 2022. The findings of this analysis show that overall transit ridership hit a 100-year low in 2020. Changepoint analysis revealed that June 2021 marked the beginning of the recovery for transit ridership in the United States. However, even by June 2022, rail and bus ridership were only about two-thirds of the pre-pandemic levels in most metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Only in a handful of MSAs like Tampa and Tucson did rail ridership reach or exceed 2019 ridership. This retrospective study concludes with a discussion of some longer-term changes likely to continue to impact ridership, such as increased telecommuting and operator shortages, as well as some opportunities, such as free fares and increased availability of bus lanes. The findings of this study can help inform agencies about their performance compared to their peers and highlight general challenges facing the transit industry.