This paper studies the long-run mortality effects of in-utero and early-life economic conditions. We examine how local economic conditions experienced during the Great Depression, proxied by county-level banking deposits during in-utero and first years of life, influence old-age longevity. We find that a one-standard-deviation rise in per capita bank deposits is associated with an approximately 1.7 month increase in males' longevity at old age. Additional analyses comparing state-level versus county-level economic measures provide insight on the importance of controlling for local-level confounders and exploiting more granular measures when exploring the relationship between early-life conditions and later-life mortality.

Peacetime military service has both positive and negative effects on human capital. While it depreciates academic skills, it also enhances non-cognitive ones. The net effect of conscription is hard to identify due to issues of self-selection, endogenous timing and omitted variables bias. We exploit the compulsory service of men in the Republic of Cyprus preceding university enrolment to deal with the first two problems. After controlling for prior academic performance and other relevant controls in a selection on observables model, we find that duration of service has a positive and significant effect on men's subsequent academic performance as measured by grade point average. Two exogenous reforms-one at the extensive margin and one at the intensive margin of military service-allow us to deal with omitted variables bias. We estimate difference-in-differences models, where female students act as a control group, and show that an increase (reduction) in the average length of army service has a positive (negative) and significant effect on men's academic performance.

Understanding the causal relationship between vaccination and individuals' risky behavioral responses has important policy implications as it affects the ultimate effectiveness of increasing access to vaccination. This paper examines the causal effects of vaccination on risky behaviors by exploring the 1992 hepatitis B vaccination campaign in China. Our empirical strategy exploits variations in age at the campaign as well as the pretreatment infection risks across provinces. Using a large cross-section of individuals born between 1981 and 1994, we find that more exposure to the hepatitis B vaccination leads to lower alcohol use during adulthood, and such impacts are almost entirely driven by men. Individuals from more educated families and people who live in urban areas tend to react more. Improved educational attainment and dissemination of related knowledge are important contributors. Our results uncover an unexpected benefit of promoting access to vaccination.

I study the short-run and long-run effects of exposure to peers from disrupted families in adolescence. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data, I find that girls are mostly unaffected by peers from disrupted families, while boys exposed to more peers from disrupted families exhibit more school problems in adolescence and higher arrest probabilities, less stable jobs and higher probabilities of suffering from financial stress as young adults. These results suggest negative effects on non-cognitive skills but no effect on cognitive skills, as measured by academic performance. The dramatic increase in family disruption in the United States should thus receive more attention, as the intergenerational mobility and inequality consequences could be larger than anticipated as a result of classroom spillovers.

We analyze the effectiveness of a vocational training (VT) programme targeting unemployed youth in Latvia, contributing to the scant literature on active labour market policies in transition countries. The programme we analyse is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme (2014-2020), the largest action launched by the European Union to combat youth unemployment after the 2008 financial crisis. Although the programme was targeted to youths aged between 15 and 29, priority was given to those younger than 25 years of age. We exploit this eligibility rule in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design framework to estimate the impact of VT participation on the probability of being employed and gross monthly labour income at given dates after the training. Using rich administrative data, we find that the age priority rule increased programme participation for the youngest group by about 10 percentage points. However, participation in the programme did not lead to statistically significant positive effects in labour market outcomes. We argue that this result could be due to some specific characteristics of the programme, namely the voucher system (potentially inducing lock-in effects) and the type of training (classroom instead of on-the-job training). Moreover, the programme was targeted at ex-ante low-employable individuals (e.g. without vocational qualifications), a fact that is confirmed by our analysis of the characteristics of the population of compliers with the age priority rule.

Knowing how school reopenings affect the spread of COVID-19 is crucial when balancing children's right to schooling with contagion management. This paper considers the effects on COVID-19 testing prevalence and the positive test rate of reopening Norwegian schools after a 6-week closure aimed at reducing contagion. We estimate the effects of school reopening on teachers, parents and students using an event study/difference-in-differences design that incorporates comparison groups with minimal exposure to in-person schooling. We find no evidence that COVID-19 incidence increased following reopening among students, parents or teachers pooled across grade levels. We find some suggestive evidence that infection rates among upper secondary school teachers increased; however, the effects are small and transitory. At low levels of contagion, schools can safely be reopened when other social distancing policies remain in place.

Using a novel panel survey of relatively poor urban Peruvian adolescents, we explore the link between educational aspirations and propensity to invest in the future. Aspirations comprise hope and agency. We find remarkably high educational aspirations, even among relatively poor individuals and adolescents who were exposed to negative shocks, suggesting high levels of resilience. We also find high occupational aspirations and aspirations to migrate. High-aspiration respondents were also more likely to invest in their education and avoid risky behaviors. These are associations as we do not have enough data to establish causality, although we were able to control for within-person traits. Aspirations are stable over time and positively associated with personality traits such as self-efficacy and life satisfaction, which help explain their persistence over time. Our findings complement those of other recent studies that highlight the role of personality traits in addition to cognitive skills in long-term educational, health, and socioeconomic outcomes.

The potential death toll from an epidemic is larger than the number of deaths directly associated with the infection. In this study, we find that prenatal exposure to a cholera epidemic in Peru increased childhood mortality and that surviving children were more likely to be underweight and to suffer from diarrhea. We further find that a significant part of this mortality happened during the first day of life, and that prenatal exposure to cholera decreased prenatal care and institutional deliveries, suggesting that the mortality and possibly other longer-term effects were partially driven by a reduction in prenatal investments.

Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department's epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11 of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.

When the European Union expanded eastward in 2004 and 2007 to accession the so-called EU8 and EU2 countries, respectively, the incumbent member states imposed temporary restrictions on the employment of EU8 and EU2 nationals. Self-employed individuals were exempted from these transitional arrangements, prompting concerns that self-employment could be used as a means to evade the restrictions on labour market access. If the transitional arrangements led to an increase in EU8 and EU2 nationals' self-employment rates, as previous research suggests, then their removal should have led to a corresponding decrease. This article analyses whether the latter has indeed been the case. Using pooled cross section data from the EU Labour Force Survey, over the period 2004-2019, we show that removing the transitional arrangements has had a negative effect on the self-employment rates of EU2 nationals, but seemingly no effect on the self-employment rates of EU8 nationals. Distinguishing between types of capitalist regimes, however, reveals a much more nuanced picture, with significant variation in terms of the magnitude and significance of the effect across groups of countries.

We propose a mechanism based on regional inequality in economic activity to explain the heterogeneity in the spread of COVID-19 and test it using data from India. Contagion is expected to spread at a higher rate in regions characterized by greater movement of goods and services. We argue that mobility is higher in regions with greater degree of intra-regional inequality in economic activity. Such regions are usually characterized by a core-periphery economic structure in which the periphery is dependent on the core for the supply of jobs, goods, and services. Such dependence leads to a greater degree of mobility between the core and periphery, which in turn leads to higher rate of contagion. Using nightlight data to measure regional inequality, we find evidence in support of our hypothesis. Using mobility data, we provide direct evidence in support of our proposed channel; the positive relationship between regional inequality and COVID-19 infection is driven by mobility. Our findings suggest that policy responses to contain COVID-19 contagion need to be heterogeneous across India, where the priority areas can be chosen ex ante based on a regional inequality-based criterion.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major threat to health and economic well-being in the USA, especially for older and disabled workers, and may spill over onto Social Security. We use individual-level from the Current Population Survey, state-level monthly Social Security administrative data on disability benefit applications, and national-level monthly data on Social Security retirement benefit applications to assess the impact of the pandemic on older adults' employment and benefit claiming. State-level monthly Google Trends data are used as a leading indicator of future claiming in the population. We find that employment for older workers dropped substantially more than would have been predicted prior to the pandemic: employment for 50-61-year-olds was 5.7 pp (8.3 percent) lower, while employment for 62-70-year-olds was 3.9 pp (10.7 percent) lower. We find declines in labor force exit due to disability (4-5 percent), applications for disability insurance (15 percent), the average age of disability program applicants, and Google searches for disability (7 percent). We contrast with prior periods of economic downturn and explore potential mechanisms, finding evidence for both supply- and demand-side explanations.

This paper studies the dynamic effects of longevity on intergenerational policies and fertility, distinguishing between effects of and longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age ("life-cycle effect"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly ("policy effect"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth.

This study is the first to explore the impact of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot on risk avoidance behavior and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc., and an event-study approach, we document a substantial increase on January 6 in non-resident smartphone pings at the sites of the protest: the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the US Capitol Building. Then, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol riot led to an increase in stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, consistent with risk avoidance behavior and post-riot policies designed to limit large in-person gatherings. Finally, while we find no evidence that the Capitol riot substantially increased the spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia, we do find that counties with the highest inflows of out-of-town protesters experienced a 0.004 to 0.010 increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth during the month following the event. These findings are exacerbated in counties without COVID-19 mitigation policies in place.

We develop a model of optimal lockdown policy for a social planner who balances population health with short-term wealth accumulation. The unique solution depends on tolerable infection incidence and social network structure. We then use unique data on nursing home networks in the US to calibrate the model and quantify state-level preference for prioritizing health over wealth. We also empirically validate simulation results derived from comparative statics analyses. Our findings suggest that policies that tolerate more virus spread (laissez-faire) increase state GDP growth and COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes. The detrimental effects of laissez-faire policies are more potent for nursing homes that are more peripheral in networks, nursing homes in poorer counties, and nursing homes that operate on a for-profit basis. We also find that US states with Republican governors have a higher tolerable incidence level, but these policies tend to converge with a high death count.

This paper uses data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe to analyze the effect of spousal health shocks on own labor supply decisions. The results suggest minimal changes to the probability of work and the intensity of work for both husbands and wives of disabled spouses. Wives do, however, experience an increase in the probability of retirement after their husbands experience a work-limiting health shock. The results suggest that this increased probability is due to the desire to consume joint leisure. Finally, the analysis finds substantial cross-regional heterogeneity in the effects that spousal health shocks have on the various labor market outcomes examined here, which suggests an important role for country-specific factors in the estimates provided in the earlier literature.

This paper measures social mobility rates in Hungary during the period 1949 to 2017, using surnames to measure social status. In those years, there were two very different social regimes. The first was the Hungarian People's Republic (1949-1989), which was a communist regime with an avowed aim of favouring the working class. The second is the modern liberal democracy (1989-2017), which is a free-market economy. We find five surprising things. First, social mobility rates were low for both upper- and lower-class families during 1949-2017, with an underlying intergenerational status correlation of 0.6-0.8. Second, social mobility rates under communism were the same as in the subsequent capitalist regime. Third, the Romani minority throughout both periods showed even lower social mobility rates. Fourth, the descendants of the eighteenth-century noble class in Hungary were still significantly privileged in 1949 and later. And fifth, although social mobility rates did not change measurably during the transition, the composition of the political elite changed rapidly and sharply.

Italy was among the first countries to introduce drastic measures to reduce individual mobility in order to slow the diffusion of COVID-19. The first measures imposed by the central authorities on March 8, 2020, were unanticipated and highly localized, focusing on 26 provinces. Additional nationwide measures were imposed after one day, and were removed only after June 3. Looking at these watershed moments of the pandemic, this paper explores the impact of the adoption of localized restrictions on changes in individual mobility in Italy using a spatial discontinuity approach. Results show that these measures lowered individual mobility by 7 percentage points on top of the reduction in mobility recorded in the adjacent untreated areas. The study also fills a gap in the literature in that it looks at the changes in mobility after the nationwide restrictions were lifted and shows how the recovery in mobility patterns is related to various characteristics of local labour markets. Areas with a higher proportion of professions exposed to diseases, more suitable for flexible work arrangements, and with a higher share of fixed-term contracts before the pandemic are characterised by a smaller increase in mobility after re-opening.

Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9-10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.

Using panel data from India, this paper investigates the effect of early maternal age on offspring human capital, contributing to the scarce evidence on this phenomenon, especially in the context of a developing country. The analysis relies on mother fixed effects to allow for unobserved differences between mothers and employs a variety of empirical strategies to address remaining sibling-specific concerns. Our results indicate that children born to young mothers are shorter for their age, with stronger effects for girls born to very young mothers. We also find some evidence suggesting that children born to very young mothers perform worse in math. By exploring the evolution of effects over time for the first time in the literature, we find that the height effect weakens as children age. Further analysis suggests both biological and behavioral factors as transmission channels.