This paper investigates to what extent the theories of Thomas Robert Malthus and Ester Boserup are still useful to analyse population and land-use trajectories in an industrial society at a regional scale. Following a model-based approach toward long-term socio-ecological research, we built two system dynamic models, each representing one theory, and calculated socio-ecological trajectories from 1961 to 2011 for a study region located within the Eisenwurzen region in Austria. Comparing the model trajectories with empirical data reveals opposing results for the fit of the dynamics of 'population and technology' compared to 'land use and technology'. Technology strongly influenced population development, whereas its impact on land-use intensity faded over time. Although these theories are usually seen as opposing, both models identify population development as a main driver for land-use changes, mainly population decreases that contributed to farmland abandonment. We find out-migration to be essential when applying the investigated theories to contemporary societies.

This paper proposes a new land-change model, the Geographic Emission Benchmark (GEB), as an approach to quantify land-cover changes associated with deforestation and forest degradation. The GEB is designed to determine 'baseline' activity data for reference levels. Unlike other models that forecast business-as-usual future deforestation, the GEB internally (1) characterizes 'forest' and 'deforestation' with minimal processing and ground-truthing and (2) identifies 'deforestation hotspots' using open-source spatial methods to estimate regional rates of deforestation. The GEB also characterizes forest degradation and identifies leakage belts. This paper compares the accuracy of GEB with GEOMOD, a popular land-change model used in the UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) Program. Using a case study of the Chinese tropics for comparison, GEB's projection is more accurate than GEOMOD's, as measured by Figure of Merit. Thus, the GEB produces baseline activity data that are moderately accurate for the setting of reference levels.

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process.

The objective of this paper is to examine issues in the inclusion of simulations of ecosystem functions in agent-based models of land use decision-making. The reasons for incorporating these simulations include local interests in land fertility and global interests in carbon sequestration. Biogeochemical models are needed in order to calculate such fluxes. The Century model is described with particular attention to the land use choices that it can encompass. When Century is applied to a land use problem the combinatorial choices lead to a potentially unmanageable number of simulation runs. Century is also parameter-intensive. Three ways of including Century output in agent-based models, ranging from separately calculated look-up tables to agents running Century within the simulation, are presented. The latter may be most efficient, but it moves the computing costs to where they are most problematic. Concern for computing costs should not be a roadblock.

In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances - in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure - can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from 'yet another model' to doing better science with models.

For land use science to engage the general public it must successfully translate its concepts and conclusions and make them public outside of traditional scientific venues. Here we explore science-art exhibits, which blend artistic presentations with specific scientific data or themes, as a possible effective way of communicating scientific information and disrupting misconceptions. We describe the process of producing a science-art exhibit on remote sensing and Puerto Rican landscape history from 1937 to the present, sited at a rural Puerto Rican community museum, and examine the visitor experience and educational outcomes of the museum exhibit through analysis of survey data. The exhibit project engaged undergraduate students from a variety of academic backgrounds, introduced land use science concepts to the public in an engaging format, and was effective at reshaping visitors' misconceptions of Puerto Rico's landscape change history.

We consider trends in the use of modern agricultural inputs of migrant settlers and indigenous populations in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon and the demographic, socioeconomic, and land use-related factors affecting input use. It is widely believed that the different livelihood strategies and therefore different relationships to the land of indigenous populations and migrant settlers result in different uses of chemical inputs in agriculture. We analyze data from two panel surveys, one of migrant settler households and a separate panel of indigenous households. We find low input use among both types of households, particularly among two of the five main ethnicities of indigenous households in the study region, the Cofán and Waorani. Multivariate statistical models were run separately for each panel, with significant relationships found between several predictors and the use of pesticides and herbicides. Our results highlight continuing differences in land use patterns between households in the NEA.

This study develops a methodology to distinguish vacant land types and introduces a classification scheme using a citywide vacancy inventory. Using Minneapolis, MN as a study area, three land characteristics associated with vacant properties - parcel size, ownership, and land use - are examined. Kaplan-Meier survival rates are then estimated to evaluate and compare the durations of vacancy between 2005 and 2015. The results indicate that a vacant property, in general, has the lowest probability to remain vacant within its first two years after becoming vacant. Smaller-sized parcels tend to result in a longer-term vacancy; while publicly owned, industrial, institutional, and/or recreational vacancies show similar tendencies. From this analysis, this study then develops a six-category classification scheme that can be used as (1) a novel tool to inventory vacant urban lands, (2) a diagnostic tool to identify repurposing opportunities, and (3) reliable means of comparing vacant properties across localities.

Understanding the drivers of forest transitions is relevant to inform effective forest conservation. We investigate pathways of forest transitions in the United States (1920-2010), France (1850-2010), and Austria (1830-2010). By combining evidence from forest inventories with the forest model CRAFT, we first quantify how change in forest area (), maximum biomass density ( ), and actual biomass as fraction of maximum biomass ( ) shaped forest dynamics. Second, to investigate the connections between forest change and societal resource use, or social metabolism, we quantify the importance of selected proximate and underlying socio-metabolic drivers. We find that agricultural intensification and reduced forest grazing correlated most with positive . By contrast, change in biomass imports or harvest did not explain forest change. Our findings highlight the importance of forest growth conditions in explaining long-term forest dynamics, and demonstrate the distinct ways in which resource use drove forest change.

Land cover and land use have established effects on hazard and exposure to vector-borne diseases. While our understanding of the proximate and distant causes and consequences of land use decisions has evolved, the focus on the proximate effects of landscape on disease ecology remains dominant. We argue that land use governance, viewed through a land system lens, affects tick-borne disease risk. Governance affects land use trajectories and potentially shapes landscapes favourable to ticks or increases contact with ticks by structuring human-land interactions. We illustrate the role of land use legacies, trade-offs in land-use decisions, and social inequities in access to land resources, information and decision-making, with three cases: Kyasanur Forest disease in India, Lyme disease in the Outer Hebrides (Scotland), and tick acaricide resistance in cattle in Ecuador. Land use governance is key to managing the risk of tick-borne diseases, by affecting the hazard and exposure. We propose that land use governance should consider unintended consequences on infectious disease risk.