GROWTH AND CHANGE

Do governmental policy interventions help urban economic recovery? Experimental evidence from China's provinces governance amid the COVID-19 pandemic
Jiang D, Li W, Yu J and Zhang Y
By examining China's province-level data, this paper uses governmental intervention theory to investigate the extent to which governmental policy interventions alleviate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on local economic growth. Results suggest that stronger government intervention during COVID-19 pandemic boost the economic recovery, and the effectiveness of governmental policy interventions is contingent on pandemic severity and local economic endowment. Specifically, facilitating effect of government intervention on economic growth is effective in all provinces, and the impact of government intervention is more pronounced in the province with more diagnosed cases, a high level of marketization and fiscal income.
The corona blues according to daily life changes by COVID-19: A partial least squares regression model
Gim TT
This study identifies determinants of the variation in depression resulting from COVID-19, specifies in detail the changes to daily life, and then compares the determinants' magnitude. The determinants were combined into three groups: first, the unpredictability of the disease and side effects by its response measures (specifically, restrictions on the freedom of movement and strain on social relationships); second, (mis)information through social media, public authorities, and mass media; and third, income reductions and other sociodemographic factors. Daily life changes were divided into four categories: travel/mobility, time at home (alone and with family), domestic activities (remote work, online shopping, food deliveries, reading, and online networking), and conflicts (with family and neighbors). We measured the total 29 predictors using data from the 2020 Seoul Survey, which is based on face-to-face interviews with a probability sample of adult residents. We made our estimations using partial least squares regression, which can analyze all original variables regardless of collinearity. The regression model found that major stressors include declines in out-of-home offline networking and the rise of domestic activities-and subsequent conflicts with family-restrictions on mobility (specifically, those of leisure travel), and income reductions. In contrast, changes to working and shopping (to remote work and online shopping) rather than leisure increased uses of private transportation modes. Moreover, we found influences of all forms of communications and media to be insignificant. We shall also provide a discussion on policy and academic implications of the findings.
Employment impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic across metropolitan status and size
Cho SJ, Lee JY and Winters JV
We use individual-level data from the United States Current Population Survey to examine effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment losses across metropolitan area status and population size. Job losses spiked in April 2020, and partially recovered in subsequent months. Non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas of all sizes experienced significant employment losses, but the impacts were much larger in large metropolitan areas. The COVID-19 infection rate was initially higher in large metropolitan areas and this is a significant factor explaining the higher early employment losses in large metropolitan areas. However, higher job losses for large metropolitan areas persisted through summer and fall 2020 even after COVID-19 infection rates became higher in less populous areas. We find evidence of persistent effects of early COVID-19 infection rates on later employment.
What drives people to repost social media messages during the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Weibo news microblog
Pei J, Lu Z and Yang X
COVID-19 poses an unprecedented challenge to human society. To cope with the pandemic, people seek information from various communication channels. Microblog websites are highly influential information channels for the public to get timely information during the pandemic. Building on the heuristic-systematic processing model, this study identifies the multiple characteristics (content, author, and social features) that may play a role in triggering long cascades of reposts of COVID-19-related news microblogs. With a large-scale news microblog database collected from Weibo and an innovative information gain method, we find that heuristic thinking plays a dominant role in COVID-19 pandemic-related news microblog reposting decisions and further discloses the specific influencing factors of such behavior.
Legitimate but "not for me": The role of validation in migrant entrepreneur understanding of COVID-19 business support policies in Shanghai
Blalock EC and Lyu X
COVID-19 pandemic destroyed lives and the global economy, and in the wake left businesses struggling to re-open in urban China. The Chinese party-state implemented fiscal reforms targeted towards small businesses, however little research has evaluated business' understanding of policies and implementation, particular to the focus on rural migrant entrepreneurs. Therefore, we conducted an ethnographic case study including in-depth interviews to determine to what extent rural migrant micro-entrepreneurs understand and adopt COVID-19 business support policies at two retail markets in Shanghai amid a pandemic. Applying an inductive grounded theory approach, the data demonstrated participants believe policies are but because . We maintain their understanding is a legacy of and is confirmed through the theory of validation including through agreement with significant others including other entrepreneurs and family; with life experiences in Shanghai; and of their migration story as self-sufficient entrepreneurs surviving with their own capabilities. They have a degree of certainty their understanding is fact because it has been repeatedly validated through life experiences of a migrant lacking in Shanghai. The study encourages consideration for the migrant entrepreneur context and has important practical implications for policymakers.
Identifying resilient industries in Mexico's automotive cluster: Policy lessons from the great recession to surmount the crisis caused by COVID 19
Mendoza-Velázquez A and Rendón-Rojas L
This study investigates regional employment and production resilience to adverse crisis shocks. We extend the concept of resilience beyond the notion of resistance and fast recovery to include the potential of positive spillovers to related industries in neighboring regions. The industrial analysis of the automotive cluster in Mexico relies on a spatial shift-share approach to characterize the resilience ability of regional industries. The study employs the Sub-Prime crisis as a benchmark to identify the type of employment and production recovery after an adverse shock of similar magnitude. Four industries within the automotive cluster present various degrees of spatial dependence-those industries with the most significant spillover effects on neighboring regions. The type of resilience shown by these automotive industries in the regions during the Sub Prime Crisis serves as a benchmark to base policy government and corporate decisions after the economic crisis caused by the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2.
The variations in individual consumption change and the substitution effect under the shock of COVID-19: Evidence from payment system data in China
Xu J, Gao M and Zhang Y
Over the last two decades, scholars have pointed to the significance of the impact of extreme events on consumption, a prominent part of national economies. How does the COVID-19 epidemic influence consumption? Using high-frequency payment system panel data, we explicitly consider the individual consumption changes and the substitution effect between online and offline markets of multiple categories by constructing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and conducting regression analyses. The value and regression coefficients of the substitution elasticity are used to estimate the changes and the substitution effects from the offline to the online channels. The results show that consumption saw a remarkable decline after the surge of COVID-19 in 2020 compared to 2019. Overall, online markets were more resilient than the offline markets and the substitution effects after the epidemic's outbreak between the online and offline markets were significant for one-third of the consumption categories. However, the online market could not replace the offline market for some categories due to the product characteristics. The vulnerable industries in the face of the epidemic's intervention are determined as being traditional catering, transportation, tourism, and education, and the shortage of healthcare services in extreme events is also pointed out. The results provide suggestions for policies on targeted enterprises and public service.
Geographic perspectives on elderly population growth
Rogerson PA
"The proportion of a region's population that is elderly may change over time for many different reasons. The proportion may grow because of the net in-migration of elderly individuals, or it may grow because of the net out-migration of nonelderly residents. Furthermore, the proportion may grow if the number of nonmovers in the 'pre-elderly' cohort is relatively high. This paper discusses in detail the ways in which this proportion may change over time. This is complemented by a state-level empirical study of elderly population growth in the United States during the late 1980s. The spatial pattern of the rate of new entry into the elderly cohort among nonmovers is found to be particularly influential in determining changes in the proportion of a state's population that is elderly."
Recent trends in nonmetropolitan migration: toward a new turnaround?
Fuguitt GV and Beale CL
An attempt is made to review migration trends in the United States over the past 30 years. The emphasis is on changes in migration patterns between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. "Annual net migration estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functional county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespread nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend toward greater retention and/or acquisition of people in rural and small town areas is clear."
Using moving-industry data to depict U.S. migration patterns
Gober P, Jeffery CF and Mchugh KE
"Migration analysis is hindered by the lack of up-to-date migration data. This paper examines the feasibility of using information from the American Moving Conference (AMC), the trade organization of the moving industry, to develop timely estimates of gross in- and out-migration and net migration rates at the state level. When adjusted for the spatially varying size of migrant households and the spatially varying market share of the professional moving industry, the number of AMC inbound and outbound shipments provides useful, but slightly imperfect, estimates of migration in 1990 and 1991. Viewed as a time series, adjusted AMC shipment data accurately reveal the major migration stories of the last decade. AMC-based estimates for 1992, 1993, and 1994 provide a picture of state in- and out-migration for years in which official data are not yet available."
Personal and location-specific characteristics and elderly interstate migration
Clark DE, Knapp TA and White NE
"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of locational and individual characteristics upon interstate retiree migration, particularly in state-level public policy variables. Data regarding the characteristics of individual movers are drawn from the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing 5% Public Use Microdata Sample. The household data are merged with location-specific attributes including both natural amenities and local fiscal variables." Three alternative models are developed, involving push factors, pull factors, and differences in site characteristics experienced by migrants. "The results indicate that both personal and locational characteristics are important factors determining the decision of elderly migrants to change their state of residence. While there is some limited support for the push and pull specifications, the difference model is found to provide the best overall fit."
Migration regions and interstate labor flows by occupation in the United States
Ellis M, Barff R and Renard B
"This paper investigates the migration patterns of occupational groups [in the United States]. The results confirm previous analyses of the differences in movement behavior between occupations but, in addition, show that this variation is a function of the industrial sector of employment. The chief aim of the paper, however, is to uncover the geography of labor flows for different occupational groups using a principal components analysis of interstate flow matrices....Results indicate that migration regions vary by occupation and industry and we argue that these differences reflect job information flows and regional employment structure for various classes of labor." Data are from the Public Use Microdata Sample A taken from the 1980 census.
The housing, geography, and mobility of Latin American urban poor: the prevailing model and the case of Quito, Ecuador
Klak T and Holtzclaw M
The Roles of Population, Place, and Institution in Student Diversity in American Higher Education
Franklin RS
Student racial and ethnic diversity in higher education is an important and timely topic, as institutions, policy-makers, and economists increasingly recognize the value that accrues at many levels of having a skilled and diverse student body and workforce. Students benefit from learning in a diverse environment; firms may benefit from a diverse workforce; and more demographically diverse regions make experience higher rates of economic growth. However, the forces governing institution-level student diversity are poorly understood, as little prior research on the topic exists. This paper uses school enrollment data to parse out the contribution institutional characteristics, geographical setting, and local demographic characteristics make to student body diversity at each level of study. Results indicate that geographical location and local demographic composition play a role in student body diversity, as do the type and orientation of the institution. Institutional characteristics explain a lot of the variation in student body diversity and actual location of schools matters less than the demographic composition of young people around that location. Two broad conclusions emerge with regard to schools seeking to increase their student diversity. First, some may find their efforts hampered by circumstances outside their control (location, for example). Second, the influence of public/private status and even school size suggest further research on the ways in which these factors influence student diversity so that eventual policy action can be more effective.
Dynamics of the U.S. interstate migration system, 1975-1992
Miller GH
This note further develops an analysis of the U.S. interstate migration system by K.E. McHugh and P. Gober. Specifically, it uses annual state-to-state migration flow data from Internal Revenue Service for the period 1975-1992 to analyze migration trends. Some modifications to earlier conclusions are suggested. "First the note concludes that the emergence of a new pattern of population redistribution in the U.S. in the 1980s, as reported by McHugh and Gober, was indeed significant, but that it was transitory. Second, the note's analysis does not support McHugh and Gober's conclusion of a fairly strong inverse relationship between migration effectiveness and economic expansions and contractions."
Elderly migration and development in small communities
Rowles GD and Watkins JF
"This paper develops a conceptual model of the process of community change [in the United States] in response to elderly inmigration. Analysis of intra-regional variation in elderly migration patterns in Appalachia, and synthesis of an emergent literature on the benefits and costs of attracting elderly migrants, serve as a backdrop for case studies, based on field observations and interviews, of three contrasting Appalachian communities at different stages of development as retirement destinations."
Gender and ethnic concentration and employment prospects for Mexican-American migrants
Shumway JM and Cooke TJ
The spatial dynamics of U.S. fertility, 1970-1990
Pandit K and Bagchi-sen S
"The fertility downturn in the U.S. since the baby boom has been accompanied by a growing divergence in regional fertility rates. This paper examines the spatial implications of recent fertility trends. Two interrelated questions are posed. First, how and why have the time trends in fertility varied spatially? Second, how have the regional patterns of fertility changed over time? These questions are investigated using a continuous spatio-temporal model of U.S. fertility built using the Dual Expansion Method. Results indicate that the pace of fertility decline has been the most rapid in the Northeast and the slowest in the West. Further, the traditional North-South distinctions in fertility rates are being replaced by East-West patterns. These changes tentatively suggest that regional ethnic composition is becoming an increasingly important factor in accounting for the spatial variation of U.S. fertility."
Independent and linked migrants: determinants of African American interstate migration
Lee SW and Roseman CC
"Through kinship and other links to destinations, many African American interstate migrants in the United States join other people in destination households. These ¿linked' migrants contrast to ¿independent migrants' who move as individuals or intact groups and set up their own households at the destination. Using U.S. Census Public Use Micro Sample data, this paper first shows that, in the 1985-90 period, about 45 percent of all Black interstate migrants were independent, compared to 38 percent who were linked to housing at the destination and 17 percent who moved into group quarters. Second, a multinomial logit model, incorporating individual and state-level variables, is specified that contrasts the determinants of independent and linked migration.... It is concluded that the understanding of Black migration must take into account a variety of factors beyond traditional labor market conditions, including links to the destination and individual housing circumstances."
Short-term dynamics of the U.S. interstate migration system, 1980-1988
Mchugh KE and Gober P
"This paper identifies short-term fluctuations in the [U.S.] interstate migration system using annual state-to-state migration flow data from Internal Revenue Service (IRS) records for the period, 1980 to 1988. Measures of migration efficiency are employed to indicate the net redistribution of population between states relative to the size of underlying gross interstate flows. Three findings stand out: (1) migration was more effective in redistributing the population in years of economic retrenchment than during periods of growth and expansion, (2) the dominant pattern of population redistribution shifted from a core-periphery configuration evident in the 1970s and early 1980s to a bi-coastal distribution by the mid-1980s, and (3) the most dramatic event of the 1980s was the oil glut and decline in oil prices and profits which ravaged the economies of energy states in the West South Central and Mountain regions....Overall, results demonstrate the high degree of temporal and spatial volatility in the U.S. interstate migration system."
Density and the journey to work
Levinson DM and Kumar A
"This paper evaluates the influence of residential density on commuting behavior across U.S. cities while controlling for available opportunities, the technology of transportation infrastructure, and individual socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The measures of metropolitan and local density are addressed separately.... Regressions are conducted to predict commuting time, speed, and distance, by mode of travel on a cross-section of individuals nationally and city by city. The results indicate that residential density in the area around the tripmaker's home is an important factor: the higher the density the lower the speed and the shorter the distance.... The paper suggests a threshold density at which the decrease in distance is overtaken by the congestion effects resulting in a residential density between 7,500 and 10,000 persons per square mile (neither the highest nor lowest) with the shortest duration auto commutes."