Fiscal externalities and underinvestment in early-life human capital: Optimal policy instruments for a developing country
We study policy instruments to correct inefficiently low investment in maternal nutrition in India, where one-fifth of all births occur. We focus on fiscal externalities: healthier babies become more productive adults, who pay more tax. However, parents do not internalize this externality, which, combined with other distortions, results in mothers weighing too little during pregnancy. We calibrate the first sufficient-statistics policy model for the quantitatively important case of fiscal externalities and maternal nutrition in developing countries. The optimal subsidy is large. Yet, welfare gains are even greater from public investment in state capacity to monitor nutrition, enabling targetted incentives.
Employee well-being in the digital age: Assessing the impacts of a smartphone application in the workplace
Recently, providing smartphone-based health-improving applications to employees has emerged as a promising strategy for sustaining their well-being. This study estimates the impact of the routine use of an application, introduced in 2020 by a Japanese manufacturing company, on various health-related behaviours and outcomes among employees by exploiting a distinctive large-scale longitudinal dataset and personnel records. The analysis addresses potential selection biases arising from the non-random nature of application usage by employing the instrumental variable approach. Regular application use generates significant positive impacts on health-related habits, including moderate alcohol consumption, regular breakfast intake and refraining from eating two hours before bedtime. Furthermore, regarding physical and psychological stress, noteworthy reductions in physical burden and less frequent experiences of annoyance are observed. Employees also report a lower frequency of dizziness, headaches and palpitations, albeit an increase in the frequency of strained eyes is noted. Additionally, application use is associated with lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as decreased levels of triglycerides and gamma-GTP.
Teen parent trap? The education and labor implications of motherhood and fatherhood during the transition from adolescence to adulthood in Cebu, the Philippines
For both males and females, adolescent parenthood can affect human capital investments and labor market choices during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. However, only scant evidence exists on the educational and labor implications of adolescent motherhood in developing countries and there is none on adolescent fatherhood. Using fixed effects, linear, and hazard models on a matched sample, we examine the association between early parenthood and education and labor market outcomes for a cohort of adolescents using longitudinal data from Cebu, the Philippines. While we find that early parenthood is associated with poorer educational outcomes for both teen mothers and fathers, the association is stronger for mothers. Upon becoming parents, labor market participation reduces for teen mothers but increases for teen fathers. Teen parents (both mothers and fathers) face a higher hazard of leaving school early, but teen fathers exhibit a substantially higher hazard of entering the labor market earlier. In young adulthood, conditional on working, both teen mothers and fathers are more likely to be informally employed. This paper highlights the potential gains from delaying first childbirth for adolescent males and females.
Does early-life famine exposure lead to healthy later-life dietary behavior: Evidence from the great Chinese famine
This paper investigates the long-run effect of early-life exposure to famine on survivors' dietary behavior. By exploiting exogenous variations in local severity of the Great Chinese Famine and variations of different cohorts, we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. Based on detailed three-day food intake records from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we find that famine exposure led the famine cohort who was conceived or born during the famine to adopt healthier dietary behaviors, as evidenced by a higher healthy eating score and a healthier dietary composition. Additionally, the pre-famine cohort exposed to the famine at ages 9-12 in late childhood exhibited a healthier food composition, characterized by a higher share of aquatic products. However, no statistically significant effects were observed for the pre-famine cohorts that experienced the famine in early and middle childhood. The results remain robust across various sensitivity checks. We propose that early-life famine exposure influences dietary behavior through mechanisms such as awareness of healthy eating, diet knowledge and risk aversion.
High temperatures and traffic accident crimes: Evidence from more than 470,000 offenses in China
How does climate change affect road safety? This study examines the impacts of high temperatures on the crime of causing traffic casualties based on comprehensive data covering more than 470,000 offenses from verdicts published by Chinese courts. Using 2014-2018 city-level daily panel data, we find that a day with a daily maximum temperature above 100 °F leads to a significant 11.9 % increase in traffic accident crime compared with days with a mild temperature. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that people aged 45 and above, samples on weekdays, and samples in regions with high population densities are more vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat. More importantly, we find no lagged or cumulative effects and little evidence of adaptation. Finally, by using traffic congestion index data, we observe that drivers can engage in avoidance behavior on hot days, suggesting that our estimates may provide a lower bound on the effect of extreme heat on traffic accident crime.
Health benefits of air pollution reduction: Evidence from economic slowdown in India
This paper evaluates health benefits associated with the impact of air pollution reduction on infant mortality in India. Leveraging plausibly exogenous geographic variation in air pollution due to the post-2010 economic slowdown-a period largely overlooked in the literature-I find that improvements in air quality resulted in a significant decline in infant mortality, particularly through respiratory diseases and biological pathways such as in utero and post-birth exposure. The associated health benefits correspond to 1338 saved infant lives, translating to monetary gains of $312.5 million. The paper advances our understanding of the link between air pollution and human health in settings with elevated air pollution and suboptimal regulatory frameworks.
The physical well-being of Indigenous communities in the Pacific Northwest: Anthropometric evidence from British Columbia's jails, 1864-1913
This paper documents the height of Indigenous men from the Pacific Northwest who were incarcerated in British Columbia's jails during a period of colonization and increasing market access. The average height of adults from a given community reflects the standard of living in that community at the time the adults were growing to maturity. After correcting for the impact of sample selection arising from prisoners' personal attributes, their home communities' access to market opportunities, and unobserved height determinants associated with exposure to the colonial criminal justice system, we find that Indigenous men were positively selected into incarceration based on their height. Moreover, the tendency for the tallest men to be incarcerated became stronger over our period of study. Our results suggest that Indigenous communities in the Pacific Northwest were at a severe bioeconomic disadvantage during the nineteenth century, and their well-being did not improve as market access and colonial institutions spread through the region.
Discrimination backfires? Minority ethnic disparities in vaccine hesitancy
A number of minority ethnic groups (MEGs) exhibited persistent reluctance to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. This paper attempts to empirically identify some of the contentious behavioral determinants for vaccine hesitancy (VH) that remain unexplained including the role of risk perceptions, trust in government institutions, and prior experiences of racism and trauma. We draw on unique longitudinal data from a minority-boosted sample that was collected in the United Kingdon (UK). We document robust evidence of MEG disparities in VH, which declined between November 2020 and March 2021. While VH is associated to both historical and current distrust in government, risk beliefs, exposure to racism, and an individuals socio-economic background, these factors do not fully explain MEG disparities. Furthermore, similar patterns of inequality are observed when we examine MEG disparities in healthcare use, suggesting that disparities in VH reflect broader unobservable structural barriers to healthcare access.
Social inequalities in adult mortality across Europe (18-21 centuries): A critical analysis of theories and evidence
This study examines the historical evolution of socioeconomic disparities in adult mortality, with a focus on European societies. Despite the widespread improvements in population health, social inequalities in mortality are a pervasive phenomenon nowadays. This paper employs a critical analysis of both theoretical and empirical literature to investigate major international studies and their findings on longevity differences associated with socioeconomic status from the nineteenth century to the early twenty-first century. Findings reveal that adult mortality trajectories have differed notably across social classes and regions, with some areas exhibiting disparities before the demographic transition and others showing inequalities emerging later. Understanding these long-term health inequality trends sheds light on the changing influence of medical advances and their interplay with economic growth, educational disparities, environmental factors, state roles, and production distribution, which have shaped mortality disparities through different development stages. These factors elucidate the international heterogeneity of results until the mid-twentieth century and offer explanatory insights into observed north-south patterns in Europe. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how advancements in public health, economic development, and social policies have shaped health outcomes over centuries. The implications of this research inform ongoing debates and health policy, emphasizing a nuanced interpretation of historical data to craft effective strategies that address health inequalities today.
The fattening speed: Understanding the impact of internet speed on obesity, and the mediating role of sedentary behaviour
We examine the impact of access to high-speed internet on obesity. Using 14 waves of longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey and a newly constructed dataset on the rollout and adoption rate of the National Broadband Network (NBN) across Australian postcodes, we find that access to high-speed internet has a positive effect on obesity. Specifically, our preferred instrumental variable estimates, which predict the variation in timing and location of internet access upgrades, suggest that a 1 % increase in the proportion of a postcode that has access to NBN is associated with a 1.573 increase in Body Mass Index and a 6.6 percentage point increase in the probability of being obese. These results are robust to several checks and alternative specifications. We also find that sedentary behaviour and inactivity are mechanisms through which access to high-speed internet transmits to obesity.
The effects of physical activity prescription on mental health: Evidence from primary care
While the benefits of physical activity on health are well documented, in high-income countries 1 in 3 adults do not reach the recommended levels. Thus, policy makers have developed interventions to promote physical activity. The aim of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of physical activity prescription on mental health outcomes, by studying an intervention that prescribes physical activity at the primary care level in Catalonia (PAFES). This intervention specifically targets the adult population with high cardiovascular risk. We use data from the Health Survey of Catalonia (2011-2016) and exploit the variation in the number of trained General Practitioners that prescribe physical activity. Our results show that physical activity prescription reduces the probability of suffering from poor mental health. This effect is mainly driven by females within the targeted population. We also explore the main effect (or the output) of the intervention. While PAFES increases the probability of patients undertaking high-level physical activity, it does not affect rates of sedentarism or minutes walked per day. Results are consistent when using alternative mental health outcome measures, including self-reported depression and anxiety. We conclude that the prescription of physical activity not only contributes to the improvement of physical health but is also a useful tool to help preserve mental wellbeing.
Decentralized wage bargaining and health
This study examines the association between decentralized wage bargaining and worker health in Finland. We utilize unique data on collective agreements matched with total population administrative data on mental health disorders and sickness absence for the 2005-2013 period. We find that decentralized wage bargaining is related to mental health among blue-collar workers. Specifically, local wage increase allowances are associated with improved mental health in firms with a high concentration of white-collar employees, whereas this association is reversed in firms where blue-collar workers predominate. No consistent links to sickness absences are observed. Further analyses indicate that higher earnings under local wage agreements may explain the observed improvement in mental health in white-collar intensive firms, whereas decreased employment could partially explain the worsened mental health in blue-collar intensive firms.
The geography of healthcare: Mapping patient flow and medical resource allocation in China
The misallocation of medical resources leads to interregional patient flow in search of better healthcare. Using out-of-pocket medical expenditure data and a delineating method, this paper identifies spatial clusters of medical services in China based on patient flow across cities. Our findings indicate that healthcare resources are more concentrated in northern China, while southern China is divided into several large healthcare clusters at the same threshold. The provincial capital and economically significant cities are more likely to serve as medical cluster centers. We further apply the gravity model to examine the effects of healthcare disparity on cross-city medical expenditure. The results reveal that geographic disparities in high-quality medical resources encourage remote healthcare-seeking behavior, and the shorter the distance between locations, the higher the level of medical consumption. Patients are inclined to seek medical services within their own province and within specific medical clusters identified through delineation methods. This effect is more pronounced among patients from non-central cities. This study highlights healthcare inequality by examining cross-regional medical expenditure, providing valuable insights for future healthcare policy.
Daylight duration and time allocation of children and adolescents
This study explores the allocation of time, particularly to sleep, among children and adolescents in response to daily daylight variation. Utilising a dataset of over 50,000 time-use diaries from two Australian cohorts spanning 16 years and employing an individual fixed effects estimator, we uncover a substantial causal impact of daily daylight duration on sleep patterns. Our findings reveal that days with longer daylight hours are associated with a decrease in total sleep duration, primarily driven by a later sleep onset time. Additionally, longer daylight hours correspond to reduced time spent on personal care and media activities, with increased dedication to school and physical activities. Furthermore, we identify socio-demographic factors moderating these effects, such as older age and weekend days exerting a stronger influence on sleep duration, while females and children of unemployed mothers exhibit a subtle impact. These insights contribute to our understanding of how environmental factors shape daily routines and offer implications for designing schedules that promote positive developmental outcomes in young individuals.
The role of gene-environment interaction in the formation of risk attitudes
Understanding the formation of risk preferences is crucial for elucidating the roots of economic, social, and health inequalities. However, this area remains inadequately explored. This study employs a risk preference measure directly linked to the labor market to examine whether previous experiences with high unemployment rates influence current risk decision-making among the elderly, and whether this impact varies by genotype. The findings indicate that individuals with low genetic predispositions for risk tolerance are more significantly influenced by historical fluctuations in unemployment rates than those with high genetic predispositions for risk tolerance. Consequently, this paper identifies genetic endowment as a crucial moderating factor that shapes how past experiences impact current decision-making processes. This disparity in how past experiences shape risk preferences based on genetic predisposition may further amplify inequalities in health, wealth, income, and other outcomes associated with risk preferences.
What is the relationship between risk attitudes and ambient temperature? Evidence from a large population-based cohort study
Rising temperatures affect human behavior and risk-taking in several domains. However, it is not yet well understood just how ambient temperature shapes risk attitudes. Using data from the large population-based KORA-Fit study (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) of older people (N=2454), we identify a statistically significant, but very small, positive association between short-term ambient temperature changes and individuals' general willingness to take risks. Health-related risk attitudes, however, show no significant relationship with temperature. These findings support a domain-specific view of risk attitudes, with results remaining consistent for vulnerable individuals with the chronic conditions diabetes, hypertension, and asthma. Overall, our findings suggest that risk attitudes are somewhat stable towards changes in ambient temperature.
Stress in the air: A conjecture
The 1949 study The American Soldier: Combat and Its Aftermath, Volume II, by Stouffer et al. presents detailed accounts of the attitudes of American fighter pilots toward the stress experienced by them and of the policies and practices of the American Air Force command in addressing this stress during WWII. The 2022 study "Killer incentives" by Ager et al. documents an aspect and a repercussion of the stress of German fighter pilots and can be used to identify the response to that stress by the German Air Force command during WWII. Drawing on these two studies, in this paper I construct fighter pilot stress profiles in the two air forces. The picture that emerges is that there is a stark difference between the approaches of the two commands. This diversity leads me to conjecture that the American Air Force command explicitly sought to forestall and curtail fighter pilots' stress, whereas the German Air Force command implicitly cultivated and engineered fighter pilots' stress.
The role of economic news in predicting suicides
In this paper we explore the role of media and language used to comment on economic news in nowcasting and forecasting suicides in England and Wales. This is an interesting question, given the large delay in the release of official statistics on suicides. We use a large data set of over 200,000 news articles published in six major UK newspapers from 2001 to 2015 and carry sentiment analysis of the language used to comment on economic news. We extract daily indicators measuring a set of negative emotions that are often associated with poor mental health and use them to explain and forecast national daily suicide figures. We find that highly negative comments on the economic situation in newspaper articles are predictors of higher suicide numbers, especially when using words conveying stronger emotions of fear and despair. Our results suggest that media language carrying very strong, negative feelings is an early signal of a deterioration in a population's mental health.
Beyond the biological prime: Deciphering the link between child survival and maternal age in India
This paper investigates the impact of maternal age at birth on child mortality in India, the world's most populous country burdened with significant neonatal and infant mortality. Utilizing data from the latest National Family Health Surveys, covering around 1 million children, our analysis incorporates models with household and biological-mother fixed-effects to address unobserved heterogeneity. Outcomes include neonatal mortality (<28 days), infant mortality (<12 months), and under-5 mortality. Findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between maternal age and child mortality, with the highest risk for mothers below 17 and above 40 years old. Robustness checks confirm the enduring significance of maternal age even after adjusting for socioeconomic factors and time-variant unobservables. Moreover, models with biological-mother fixed-effects suggest higher risks compared to models that only control for observables, indicating that regressions without controls for time-invariant heterogeneity may underestimate the risks of maternal age at birth.
Long-term exposure to ambient PM and population health: evidence from linked census data
Particulate matter suspended in the air that is comprised of microscopic particles with a diameter of 2.5μm or less (PM) is among the most impactful pollutants globally. Extensive evidence shows exposure to ambient PM is associated with a wide range of poor health outcomes. However, few studies examine long-run pollution exposures in nationally representative data. This study exploits Census data for Northern Ireland, linked to average PM concentrations at the 1x1km grid-square level during the period 2002-2010. We combine outcome measures in 2011 with data on complete residential histories. Before adjusting for other covariates, we show strong relationships between PM exposure, self-rated general health, disability, and all available (eleven) domain-specific health measures in the data. Associations with poor general health, chronic illness, breathing difficulties, mobility difficulties, and deafness are robust to extensive conditioning and to further analysis designed to examine sensitivity to unobserved confounders.
Diverging destinies: How children are faring under demographic transition
India reached the replacement level of fertility in 2020. However, the journey of fertility transition is unconventional and heterogeneous within the country and across the different socio-economic groups. The fertility transition is considered to be faster than its socio-economic and health transition in several states. Thus, it has been presumed that the returns to fertility decline are heterogeneous across the states and population sub-groups. Our specific hypothesis is that although rich and poor, and educated and un-educated, everyone had significantly contributed to the fertility decline in response to family planning policies, only those socio-economically better-off have been investing relatively more in their children compared to the poor, and this has led to diverging destinies for children. We tested this supposition using a macro-level panel dataset (1992-2021), fixed and random effects, and IV regression models. The results confirm that child health care and outcomes have diverged while fertility declined from 1992 to 2021. These results are sustained in multiple robustness checks. While fertility is declining with highly state-sponsored family planning programmes, the persistent socio-economic inequalities are leading to unequal progress in health outcomes for children in India.