The 17th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and 7th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting
Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
Recent Progress in Atmospheric Chemistry Research in China: Establishing a Theoretical Framework for the "Air Pollution Complex"
Atmospheric chemistry research has been growing rapidly in China in the last 25 years since the concept of the "air pollution complex" was first proposed by Professor Xiaoyan TANG in 1997. For papers published in 2021 on air pollution (only papers included in the Web of Science Core Collection database were considered), more than 24 000 papers were authored or co-authored by scientists working in China. In this paper, we review a limited number of representative and significant studies on atmospheric chemistry in China in the last few years, including studies on (1) sources and emission inventories, (2) atmospheric chemical processes, (3) interactions of air pollution with meteorology, weather and climate, (4) interactions between the biosphere and atmosphere, and (5) data assimilation. The intention was not to provide a complete review of all progress made in the last few years, but rather to serve as a starting point for learning more about atmospheric chemistry research in China. The advances reviewed in this paper have enabled a theoretical framework for the air pollution complex to be established, provided robust scientific support to highly successful air pollution control policies in China, and created great opportunities in education, training, and career development for many graduate students and young scientists. This paper further highlights that developing and low-income countries that are heavily affected by air pollution can benefit from these research advances, whilst at the same time acknowledging that many challenges and opportunities still remain in atmospheric chemistry research in China, to hopefully be addressed over the next few decades.
Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather: Current Understanding, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions
Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.
The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects
On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.
Comparison of PM and CO Concentrations in Large Cities of China during the COVID-19 Lockdown
Estimating the impacts on PM pollution and CO emissions by human activities in different urban regions is important for developing efficient policies. In early 2020, China implemented a lockdown policy to contain the spread of COVID-19, resulting in a significant reduction of human activities. This event presents a convenient opportunity to study the impact of human activities in the transportation and industrial sectors on air pollution. Here, we investigate the variations in air quality attributed to the COVID-19 lockdown policy in the megacities of China by combining in-situ environmental and meteorological datasets, the Suomi-NPP/VIIRS and the CO emissions from the Carbon Monitor project. Our study shows that PM concentrations in the spring of 2020 decreased by 41.87% in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and 43.30% in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), respectively, owing to the significant shutdown of traffic and manufacturing industries. However, PM concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region only decreased by 2.01% because the energy and steel industries were not fully paused. In addition, unfavorable weather conditions contributed to further increases in the PM concentration. Furthermore, CO concentrations were not significantly affected in China during the short-term emission reduction, despite a 19.52% reduction in CO emissions compared to the same period in 2019. Our results suggest that concerted efforts from different emission sectors and effective long-term emission reduction strategies are necessary to control air pollution and CO emissions.
Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0
Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST-CFS1.0, previously SINTEX-F). The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands, initialized from 1 March. In addition, the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but the individual members show great discrepancies, indicating large uncertainty in the forecasts. Furthermore, the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020, albeit with underestimated magnitudes. The Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km, which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method, display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some extent. However, the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill, suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.
The 2020 Summer Floods and 2020/21 Winter Extreme Cold Surges in China and the 2020 Typhoon Season in the Western North Pacific
China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21. Additionally, the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific (WNP). Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China, but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles. Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward, inducing cold surges in China. Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season. Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events, its influences on individual events still need to be quantified. Additionally, the extreme cold surge during 16-18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.
The Anomalous Mei-yu Rainfall of Summer 2020 from a Circulation Clustering Perspective: Current and Possible Future Prevalence
Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China, Japan, and South Korea. At the intercontinental scale, case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the climatological western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, potentially associated Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns and a mid-latitude wave train emanating from the North Atlantic. Using clusters of spatial patterns of sea level pressure, we show that an unprecedented 80% of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China Sea. By examining the rainfall and water vapor fluxes in other years when these clusters were also prevalent, we find that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of 2020. From two ensembles of future climate projections, we show that summers like 2020 in East Asia may become more frequent and considerably wetter in a warmer world with an enhanced moisture supply.
Observational Subseasonal Variability of the PM Concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming
It is still not well understood if subseasonal variability of the local PM in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is affected by the stratospheric state. Using PM observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, the evolution of the air quality in BTH during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is explored. The subseasonal variability of the PM concentration after the SSW onset is evidently enhanced. Stratospheric circumpolar easterly anomalies lasted for 53 days during the January-February 2021 SSW with two evident stratospheric pulses arriving at the ground. During the tropospheric wave weakening period and the intermittent period of dormant stratospheric pulses, the East Asian winter monsoon weakened, anomalous temperature inversion developed in the lower troposphere, anomalous surface southerlies prevailed, atmospheric moisture increased, and the boundary layer top height lowered, all of which favor the accumulation of pollutant particulates, leading to two periods of pollution processes in the BTH region. In the phase of strengthened East Asian winter monsoon around the very beginning of the SSW and another two periods when stratospheric pulses had reached the near surface, opposite-signed circulation patterns and meteorological conditions were observed, which helped to dilute and diffuse air pollutants in the BTH region. As a result, the air quality was excellent during the two periods when the stratospheric pulse had reached the near surface. The increased subseasonal variation of the regional pollutant particulates after the SSW onset highlights the important role of the stratosphere in the regional environment and provides implications for the environmental prediction.
The Impact of the Numbers of Monitoring Stations on the National and Regional Air Quality Assessment in China During 2013-18
China national air quality monitoring network has become the core data source for air quality assessment and management in China. However, during network construction, the significant change in numbers of monitoring sites with time is easily ignored, which brings uncertainty to air quality assessments. This study aims to analyze the impact of change in numbers of stations on national and regional air quality assessments in China during 2013-18. The results indicate that the change in numbers of stations has different impacts on fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone concentration assessments. The increasing number of sites makes the estimated national and regional PM concentration slightly lower by 0.6-2.2 µg m and 1.4-6.0 µg m respectively from 2013 to 2018. The main reason is that over time, the monitoring network expands from the urban centers to the suburban areas with low population densities and pollutant emissions. For ozone, the increasing number of stations affects the long-term trends of the estimated concentration, especially the national trends, which changed from a slight upward trend to a downward trend in 2014-15. Besides, the impact of the increasing number of sites on ozone assessment exhibits a seasonal difference at the 0.05 significance level in that the added sites make the estimated concentration higher in winter and lower in summer. These results suggest that the change in numbers of monitoring sites is an important uncertainty factor in national and regional air quality assessments, that needs to be considered in long-term concentration assessment, trend analysis, and trend driving force analysis.
COP26: Progress, Challenges, and Outlook
The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Glasgow a year later than scheduled, with expected outcomes achieved under a post-pandemic background. Based on the Issue-Actor-Mechanism Framework, this paper systematically evaluates the outcomes achieved at COP26 and analyzes the tendency of post-COP26 climate negotiations. Overall, with the concerted efforts of all parties, COP26 has achieved a balanced and inclusive package of outcomes and concluded six years of negotiations on the Paris Rulebook. It is fair to say that COP26 is another milestone in climate governance following the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the Glasgow Climate Pact has cemented the consensus on a global commitment to accelerating climate action over the next decade and reached a breakthrough consensus on reducing coal, controlling methane, and halting deforestation. In the post-COP26 era, we still need to take concrete actions to implement the outcomes of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, innovate ways to speed up CO emissions reduction, and continue to strive for breakthroughs in important issues such as finance, technology, adaptation, and collaboration. In addition to avoiding the escalation of international conflicts, we need to collectively and properly handle the relationship between energy security, carbon reduction, and development and facilitate the efforts of countries to achieve their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate-related goals. China will continue to maintain the existing multilateral mechanisms and processes for climate governance, unremittingly take concrete actions to address climate change, promote a domestic comprehensive green transition and global cooperation on carbon neutrality, and contribute constructively to global climate governance.
Detection of Anthropogenic CO Emission Signatures with TanSat CO and with Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) NO Measurements: First Results
China's first carbon dioxide (CO) measurement satellite mission, TanSat, was launched in December 2016. This paper introduces the first attempt to detect anthropogenic CO emission signatures using CO observations from TanSat and NO measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite. We focus our analysis on two selected cases in Tangshan, China and Tokyo, Japan. We found that the TanSat XCO measurements have the capability to capture the anthropogenic variations in the plume and have spatial patterns similar to that of the TROPOMI NO observations. The linear fit between TanSat XCO and TROPOMI NO indicates the CO-to-NO ratio of 0.8 × 10 ppm (molec cm) in Tangshan and 2.3 × 10 ppm (molec cm) in Tokyo. Our results align with the CO-to-NO emission ratios obtained from the EDGAR v6 emission inventory.
Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth's energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth's climate system. In 2022, the world's oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0-2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the "salty gets saltier-fresh gets fresher" pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.
A New Index Developed for Fast Diagnosis of Meteorological Roles in Ground-Level Ozone Variations
China experienced worsening ground-level ozone (O) pollution from 2013 to 2019. In this study, meteorological parameters, including surface temperature ( ), solar radiation (SW), and wind speed (WS), were classified into two aspects, (1) Photochemical Reaction Condition (PRC = × SW) and (2) Physical Dispersion Capacity (PDC = WS). In this way, a Meteorology Synthetic Index (MSI = PRC/PDC) was developed for the quantification of meteorology-induced ground-level O pollution. The positive linear relationship between the 90th percentile of MDA8 (maximum daily 8-h average) O concentration and MSI determined that the contribution of meteorological changes to ground-level O varied on a latitudinal gradient, decreasing from ∼40% in southern China to 10%-20% in northern China. Favorable photochemical reaction conditions were more important for ground-level O pollution. This study proposes a universally applicable index for fast diagnosis of meteorological roles in ground-level O variability, which enables the assessment of the observed effects of precursor emissions reductions that can be used for designing future control policies.
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content (OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year's record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ (1 zetta J = 10 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by 16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans, and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.
A Causality-guided Statistical Approach for Modeling Extreme Mei-yu Rainfall Based on Known Large-scale Modes-A Pilot Study
Extreme Mei-yu rainfall (MYR) can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China. While significant improvements have been made in climate models, they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall (e.g., MYR). Yet, large-scale climate modes (LSCMs) are relatively well represented in climate models. Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs, it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs. These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models. In this pilot study, it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs. The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature. The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature. The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed. The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.
Spatial and Temporal Distributions and Sources of Anthropogenic NMVOCs in the Atmosphere of China: A Review
As the key precursors of O, anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) have been studied intensively. This paper performed a meta-analysis on the spatial and temporal variations of NMVOCs, their roles in photochemical reactions, and their sources in China, based on published research. The results showed that both non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) in China have higher mixing ratios in the eastern developed cities compared to those in the central and western areas. Alkanes are the most abundant NMHCs species in all reported sites while formaldehyde is the most abundant among the OVOCs. OVOCs have the highest mixing ratios in summer and the lowest in winter, which is opposite to NMHCs. Among all NMVOCs, the top eight species account for 50%-70% of the total ozone formation potential (OFP) with different compositions and contributions in different areas. In devolved regions, OFP-NMHCs are the highest in winter while OFP-OVOCs are the highest in summer. Based on positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis, vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions, and solvent usage in China are the main sources for NMHCs. However, the emission trend analysis showed that solvent usage and industrial emissions will exceed vehicle exhaust and become the two major sources of NMVOCs in near future. Based on the meta-analysis conducted in this work, we believe that the spatio-temporal variations and oxidation mechanisms of atmospheric OVOCs, as well as generating a higher spatial resolution of emission inventories of NMVOCs represent an area for future studies on NMVOCs in China.
Characterization of Regional Combustion Efficiency using ΔXCO: ΔXCO Observed by a Portable Fourier-Transform Spectrometer at an Urban Site in Beijing
Measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, CO (XCO) and CO (XCO), were performed throughout 2019 at an urban site in Beijing using a compact Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) EM27/SUN. This data set is used to assess the characteristics of combustion-related CO emissions of urban Beijing by analyzing the correlated daily anomalies of XCO and XCO (e.g., ΔXCO and ΔXCO). The EM27/SUN measurements were calibrated to a 125HR-FTS at the Xianghe station by an extra EM27/SUN instrument transferred between two sites. The ratio of ΔXCO over ΔXCO (ΔXCO:ΔXCO) is used to estimate the combustion efficiency in the Beijing region. A high correlation coefficient (0.86) between ΔXCO and ΔXCO is observed. The CO:CO emission ratio estimated from inventories is higher than the observed ΔXCO:ΔXCO (10.46 ± 0.11 ppb ppm) by 42.54%-101.15%, indicating an underestimation in combustion efficiency in the inventories. Daily ΔXCO:ΔXCO are influenced by transportation governed by weather conditions, except for days in summer when the correlation is low due to the terrestrial biotic activity. By convolving the column footprint [ppm (µmol m s)] generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting-X-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport models (WRF-X-STILT) with two fossil-fuel emission inventories (the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) and the Peking University (PKU) inventory), the observed enhancements of CO and CO were used to evaluate the regional emissions. The CO emissions appear to be underestimated by 11% and 49% for the MEIC and PKU inventories, respectively, while CO emissions were overestimated by MEIC (30%) and PKU (35%) in the Beijing area.
Characteristics of Chemical Speciation in PM in Six Representative Regions in China
A better knowledge of aerosol properties is of great significance for elucidating the complex mechanisms behind frequently occurring haze pollution events. In this study, we examine the temporal and spatial variations in both PM and its major chemical constituents using three-year field measurements that were collected in six representative regions in China between 2012 and 2014. Our results show that both PM and its chemical compositions varied significantly in space and time, with high PM loadings mainly observed in the winter. By comparing chemical constituents between clean and polluted episodes, we find that the elevated PM mass concentration during pollution events should be largely attributable to significant increases in organic matter (OM) and inorganic aerosols like sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (SNA), indicative of the critical role of primary emissions and secondary aerosols in elevating PM pollution levels. The ratios of PM/PM are found to be generally high in Shanghai and Guangzhou, while relatively low ratios are seen in Xi'an and Chengdu, indicating anthropogenic emissions were more likely to accumulate in forms of finer particles. With respect to the relative importance of chemical components and meteorological factors quantified via statistical modeling practices, we find that primary emissions and secondary aerosols were the two leading factors contributing to PM variations, though meteorological factors also played important roles in regulating the dispersion of atmospheric PM.
Transport Patterns and Potential Sources of Atmospheric Pollution during the XXIV Olympic Winter Games Period
The attainment of suitable ambient air quality standards is a matter of great concern for successfully hosting the XXIV Olympic Winter Games (OWG). Transport patterns and potential sources of pollutants in Zhangjiakou (ZJK) were investigated using pollutant monitoring datasets and a dispersion model. The PM concentration during February in ZJK has increased slightly (28%) from 2018 to 2021, mostly owing to the shift of main potential source regions of west-central Inner Mongolia and Mongolian areas (2015-18) to the North China Plain and northern Shanxi Province (NCPS) after 2018. Using CO as an indicator, the relative contributions of the different regions to the receptor site (ZJK) were evaluated based on the source-receptor-relationship method (SRR) and an emission inventory. We found that the relative contribution of pollutants from NCPS increased from 33% to 68% during 2019-21. Central Inner Mongolia (CIM) also has an important impact on ZJK under unfavorable weather conditions. This study demonstrated that the effect of pollution control measures in the NCPS and CIM should be strengthened to ensure that the air quality meets the standard during the XXIV OWG.