OUTLOOK ON AGRICULTURE

Assessing impacts of COVID-19 and their responses among smallholder farmers in Brazil, Madagascar and Tanzania
Löhr K, Mugabe P, Turetta APD, Steinke J, Lozano C, Bonatti M, Eufemia L, Ito LH, Konzack A, Kroll S, Mgeni CP, Andrasana DR, Tadesse S, Yazdanpanah M and Sieber S
This study investigates the impacts of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on smallholder farmers and their coping strategies in three contrasting Low- and Middle-Income Countries. The case studies include Brazil (South region), Madagascar (Atsimo Atsinanana region), and Tanzania (Morogoro/Eastern Tanzania). These countries were chosen because i) the economies are strongly influenced by the agricultural sector; ii) their national food security is strongly affected by smallholder production, and, iii) they represent a set of contrasting government responses to COVID-19 including the denial of the pandemic. Data were collected through semi-structured household interviews in all three countries in rural areas. COVID-19 induced effects were found in all three countries, including in Brazil and Tanzania where both national governments initially neglected the existence of COVID-19 and introduced few containment measures only. Here, mobility and trade restrictions of other countries impact also on agricultural trade and production in countries in which governments took less action to COVID-19 and also people remained home and practiced social distancing even if no official government policy was issued. The findings in all three countries suggest that the COVID-19 crisis had negatively affected smallholders' agricultural production, leading to a vicious cycle of low production, low incomes, and higher food insecurity. Results of this study raise the thorny issue of how best to balance containment of pandemic and future shocks against the well-being of the vulnerable rural population in lower- and middle-income countries; especially considering also the degree of global interconnected and the potential of polices to effect people beyond the national scale.
Gender inclusivity through maize breeding in Africa: A review of the issues and options for future engagement
Voss RC, Donovan J, Rutsaert P and Cairns JE
With the prioritization of social inclusion in agricultural development, donors and research centers have shown growing interest in gender-intentional varietal development and delivery. Breeding maize varieties that respond to gender-based differences in trait preferences now represents a central objective of maize R&D in the CGIAR and elsewhere. Drawing on literature on gender and maize seed adoption, variety preferences, and seed system constraints, we take stock of knowns and unknowns related to gender-responsive and gender-intentional maize breeding. While recent research on farmers' variety preferences across crops has yielded insights into gender-based differences, we find that evidence of gender-differentiated preferences for maize varieties remains inconclusive. Ultimately, we identify several research priorities to support gender-intentional maize breeding, including a more nuanced understanding of gender relations in maize production and maize seed decision-making, new and more gender-responsive approaches to measuring farmer preferences and seed demand more broadly, and research to address operational challenges in gender-intentional breeding. We close by identifying some institutional constraints to achieving impact through gender-intentional maize breeding.
Characterizing cassava farmer typologies and their seed sourcing practices to explore opportunities for economically sustainable seed business models in Rwanda
Kilwinger F, Mugambi S, Manners R, Schut M, Tumwegamire S, Nduwumuremyi A, Bambara S, Paauwe M and Almekinders C
The overdependency on local cassava varieties and informal seed sources by farmers in Rwanda has contributed to the spread of cassava viral diseases. The use of improved planting materials made available through formal seed sources, that assure seed quality, is one way to prevent future disease outbreaks. In order to increase the availability of, and farmers access to, such materials there is increasing interest to develop seed business models. This study aims to understand seed sourcing practices of different farm typologies to inform the development of tailored seed business models. A total of 390 farmers were interviewed and the collected data was analyzed into clusters, resulting in seven farm typologies. Seed sourcing strategies, seed replacement dynamics and purchasing behavior of these typologies were explored via a seed tracing study. We find that more commercial oriented farmers have better access to formal seed sources. Nevertheless, the majority of farmers in all typologies accessed new varieties and quality cassava seed via informal channels. At both formal and informal sources, cash investments in seed were mainly made by the categories of better-off farmers, and were one-time investments to acquire a new variety. Based on farmers current seed sourcing practices, clarifications on the differences between farmers and their willingness-to-pay, the roles of seed degeneration, cost-benefit analysis, value propositions and profit formulas seem important requirements for the further development of viable cassava seed business models. We conclude that tailoring seed business models can have a high potential as it acknowledges differences among farmers, but that careful coordination is needed to ensure that one approach or intervention does not contrast with and/or undermine the others.
Tailoring rice varieties to consumer preferences induced by cultural and colonial heritage: Lessons from New Rice for Africa (NERICA) in The Gambia
Britwum K and Demont M
Rice breeding priorities in Africa often focus on agronomic gains. However, being a net importer of rice, the continent's varietal replacement success also crucially hinges on new varieties' market competitiveness vis-à-vis imports. Markets have been profoundly shaped by cultural and colonial heritage. Indigenous preferences for African rice can be traced back to ancient rice domestication and have been subsequently influenced by Asian rice import standards as a result of colonial import substitution policies. New Rice for Africa (NERICA) crosses between African and Asian rice species have the potential to reconcile these dual indigenous/import preferences, but little is known about their market competitiveness. We use auction market data to assess the intrinsic and extrinsic consumer value of NERICA in The Gambia relative to two market standards: branded, Asian rice imports and the most popular locally grown Asian rice variety. We categorize rice consumers into four market segments, based on their heritage as evidenced by their preferences and genealogical lineages. NERICA outperforms both Asian rice standards in terms of market competitiveness, and its value is further reinforced by colonial heritage and labeling, but somewhat weakened by cultural heritage. Consumers were found to pay price premiums for NERICA in the range of 5% to 22% relative to Asian rice imports, with the highest premiums offered by consumers with colonial heritage, representing 86% of the sample. Maintaining and expanding this market will require breeders to incorporate trait mixes that reconcile agronomic gains and consumer preferences induced by cultural and colonial heritage.
Basket of options: Unpacking the concept
Ronner E, Sumberg J, Glover D, Descheemaeker K, Almekinders C, Haussmann B, Kuyper TW, Posthumus H, Ebanyat P and Giller KE
How to stimulate technological change to enhance agricultural productivity and reduce poverty remains an area of vigorous debate. In the face of heterogeneity among farm households and rural areas, one proposition is to offer potential users a 'basket of options' - a range of agricultural technologies from which potential users may select the ones that are best suited to their specific circumstances. While the idea of a basket of options is now generally accepted, it has attracted little critical attention. In this paper, we reflect on outstanding questions: the appropriate dimensions of a basket, its contents and how they are identified, and how a basket might be presented. We conceive a basket of options in terms of its depth (number of options related to a problem or opportunity) and breadth (the number of different problems or opportunities addressed). The dimensions of a basket should reflect the framing of the problem or opportunity at hand and the objective in offering the basket. We recognise that increasing the number of options leads to a trade-off by decreasing the fraction of those options that are relevant to an individual user. Farmers might try out, adapt or use one or more of the options in a basket, possibly leading to a process of technological change. We emphasise that the selection (or not) of specific options from the basket, and potential adaptation of the options, provide important opportunities for learning. Baskets of options can therefore be understood as important boundary concepts that invite critical engagement, comparison and discussion. Significant knowledge gaps remain, however, about the best ways to present the basket and to guide potential users to select the options that are most relevant to them.
"Breaking through the 40% adoption ceiling: Mind the seed system gaps." A perspective on seed systems research for development in One CGIAR
McEwan MA, Almekinders CJ, Andrade-Piedra JJ, Delaquis E, Garrett KA, Kumar L, Mayanja S, Omondi BA, Rajendran S and Thiele G
Seed systems research is central to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Improved varieties with promise for ending hunger, improving nutrition, and increasing livelihood security may be released, but how do they reach and benefit different types of farmers? Without widespread adoption the genetic gains achieved with improved crop varieties can never be actualized. Progress has been made toward demand responsive breeding, however the draft CGIAR 2030 Research and Innovation Strategy fails to recognize the complexity of seed systems and thus presents a narrow vision for the future of seed systems research. This points to the lack of evidence-based dialogue between seed systems researchers and breeders. This perspective paper presents findings from an interdisciplinary group of more than 50 CGIAR scientists who used a suite of seed systems tools to identify four knowledge gaps and associated insights from work on the seed systems for vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs), focusing on bananas (especially cooking bananas and plantains), cassava, potato, sweetpotato, and yam. We discuss the implications for thinking about and intervening in seed systems using a combined biophysical and socioeconomic perspective and how this can contribute to increased varietal adoption and benefits to farmers. The tools merit wider use, not only for the seed systems of VPCs, but for the seed of crops facing similar adoption challenges. We argue for deeper collaboration between seed systems researchers, breeders and national seed system stakeholders to address these and other knowledge gaps and generate the evidence and innovations needed to break through the 40% adoption ceiling for modern varieties, and ensure good quality seed once the new varieties have been adopted. Without this, the achievements of breeders may remain stuck in the seed delivery pipeline.
Regenerative Agriculture: An agronomic perspective
Giller KE, Hijbeek R, Andersson JA and Sumberg J
Agriculture is in crisis. Soil health is collapsing. Biodiversity faces the sixth mass extinction. Crop yields are plateauing. Against this crisis narrative swells a clarion call for Regenerative Agriculture. But what is Regenerative Agriculture, and why is it gaining such prominence? Which problems does it solve, and how? Here we address these questions from an agronomic perspective. The term Regenerative Agriculture has actually been in use for some time, but there has been a resurgence of interest over the past 5 years. It is supported from what are often considered opposite poles of the debate on agriculture and food. Regenerative Agriculture has been promoted strongly by civil society and NGOs as well as by many of the major multi-national food companies. Many practices promoted as regenerative, including crop residue retention, cover cropping and reduced tillage are central to the canon of 'good agricultural practices', while others are contested and at best niche (e.g. permaculture, holistic grazing). Worryingly, these practices are generally promoted with little regard to context. Practices most often encouraged (such as no tillage, no pesticides or no external nutrient inputs) are unlikely to lead to the benefits claimed in all places. We argue that the resurgence of interest in Regenerative Agriculture represents a re-framing of what have been considered to be two contrasting approaches to agricultural futures, namely agroecology and sustainable intensification, under the same banner. This is more likely to confuse than to clarify the public debate. More importantly, it draws attention away from more fundamental challenges. We conclude by providing guidance for research agronomists who want to engage with Regenerative Agriculture.
Grain legume seed systems for smallholder farmers: Perspectives on successful innovations
Ojiewo CO, Omoigui LO, Pasupuleti J and Lenné JM
Grain legumes are nutritionally important components of smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Unfortunately, limited access to quality seed of improved varieties at affordable prices due to inadequate seed systems has reduced their contribution to improving nutrition and reducing poverty in these regions. This paper analyses four seed systems case studies: chickpea in Ethiopia and Myanmar; cowpea in Nigeria; and tropical grain legumes in Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda highlighting outcomes, lessons learned, and the enabling factors which supported the successful innovations. All four case studies highlighted at least some of the following outcomes: increased adoption of improved varieties and area planted; increased productivity and income to farmers; improved market access and growth; and significant national economic benefits. Important lessons were learned including the value of small seed packets to reach many farmers; the value of innovative partnerships; capacity building of value chain actors; and continuity and coherence of funding through Tropical Legumes projects II and III and the recently funded Accelerated Varietal Improvement and Seed Delivery of Legumes and Cereals in Africa (AVISA) project. Successful adoption of innovations depends not just on the right technologies but also on the enabling environment. The case studies clearly showed that market demand was correctly identified, establishment of successful partners and institutional linkages overcame constraints in production and delivery of improved seed to smallholders, and fostered conducive policies supported national seed systems. All were integral to seed system viability and sustainability. It is hoped that these examples will provide potential models for future grain legume seed systems efforts. In addition, the analysis identified a number of areas that require further research.
Confronting genetic gains with markets: Retrospective lessons from New Rice for Africa (NERICA) in Uganda
Britwum K, Owusu ES and Demont M
Breeders have two non-exclusive strategic investment options for increasing smallholder farmers' and consumers' livelihoods through genetic improvement of crop varieties: (i) enhancing productivity; and (ii) enhancing value and market access. New Rice for Africa (NERICA) varieties with superior agronomic characteristics were bred and introduced in various African countries in the early 2000s. Two decades later, drought tolerant NERICA4 is among the popular upland rice varieties grown across Africa. We analyze market evidence for NERICA4 from Uganda in 2011, i.e. well before it massively reached urban markets, where it is currently commingled with standard rice. We then compare the breeding priorities that would have ensued from the 2011 market evidence with the reality a decade later. Non-hypothetical auction experiments with consumers were conducted in urban Uganda in 2011 to predict potential market share and value of non-fragrant NERICA4 and fragrant NERICA1, relative to two market standards, i.e. non-fragrant , and , the most popular fragrant rice variety in the region. Average consumer bids positioned the two NERICAs between both market standards. Whereas NERICA1 easily outcompeted NERICA4 and in the non-fragrant rice category, it failed to compete with in the fragrant category. The 2011 market evidence would have suggested breeders prioritize investment in breeding programs for fragrant NERICAs to help smallholders gain access to high-value markets and expand consumers' choice with cheaper fragrant rice alternatives. However, the popularity of NERICA4 relative to NERICA1 in farmers' fields seems to suggest that agronomic genetic gains may have outweighed market traits such as fragrance.
Effect of varietal attributes on the adoption of an orange-fleshed sweetpotato variety in Upper East and Northern Ghana
Adekambi SA, Okello JJ, Rajendran S, Acheremu K, Carey EE, Low J and Abidin PE
Despite sustained economic growth and reduction in some of forms of malnutrition, Ghana still faces a national prevalence rate of 20.8% vitamin A deficiency (VAD) among for children 6-59 months old. Orange-fleshed sweetpotato ( L.) (OFSP) can significantly improve vitamin A intake and contribute toward reducing VAD, especially in Northern Ghana where VAD is 31% among young children. Several poverty and nutrition projects in Ghana have promoted the use of OFSP for its health benefits. This study assesses the effect of three varietial attributes on adoption of the first released OFSP variety in Northern Ghana namely, Apomuden. The study concluded that sweetness, taste and dry matter have joint significant effects on adoption of an OFSP variety. The positive and negative traits highlighted will inform the on-going breeding effort.
Carbon-free conferencing in the age of COVID-19
Veldhuizen LJ, Slingerland M, Barredo L and Giller KE
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a crash course for many in working from home using various online tools, many of which can be used to organize e-conferences. An e-conference is a fully online event with multiple sessions and virtual discussion in one platform. In this paper, we aim to provide insights in and present key steps to organize a successful e-conference, increase our understanding of the impact of e-conferences, and identify key strengths, weaknesses, and success factors. Based on a participant survey and our own experience, we found that e-conferences are relatively easy to organize with readily-available and free tools, that they are more accessible and thus inclusive than physical meetings, and that they are virtually carbon-free which can contribute to large emission savings. Three important success factors are attracting a good set of speakers, building an interested audience, and reaching your objectives and desired impact. A successful e-conference can enable joint learning among speakers and participants, and allows novel ways of disseminating scientific knowledge while also enabling networking for the many participants who might not be able to attend an in-person event.
Potential returns to yam research investment in sub-Saharan Africa and beyond
Mignouna DB, Akinola AA, Abdoulaye T, Alene AD, Manyong V, Maroya NG, Aighewi BA, Kumar LP, Balogun M, Lopez-Montes A, Rees D and Asiedu R
Lack of good-quality planting materials has been identified as the most severe problem militating against increased agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and beyond. However, investment of research efforts and resources in addressing this menace will only be feasible and worthwhile if attendant economic gains are considerable. As a way of investigating the economic viability of yam investment, this research has been initiated to address problems confronting yam productivity in eight countries of SSA and beyond: Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, Papua New Guinea, Jamaica, and Columbia. Research options developed were to be deployed and disseminated. Key technologies include the adaptive yam minisett technique (AYMT), varieties adapted to low soil fertility and drought, nematode-resistant cultivars (NRC), and crop management and postharvest practices (CMPP). This article aims at estimating the potential economic returns, the expected number of beneficiaries, and poverty reduction consequent to the adoption of technology options. Estimates show that the new land area that will be covered by the technologies in the eight countries will range between 770,000 ha and 1,000,000 ha with the highest quota accounted for by AYMT. The net present value will range between US$584 and US$1392 million and was highest for the NRC. The CMPP had the lowest benefit-cost ratio of 7.74. About 1,049,000 people would be moved out of poverty by these technologies by 2037 in the region. These technologies are less responsive to changes in cost than that in adoption rate. Therefore, the realization of the potential economic gains depends on the rate and extent of adoption of these technologies. Giving the knowledge-intensive nature of some of these interventions, capacity building of potential adopters will be critical to increasing the sustainability of the yam sector, thereby enhancing food security and reducing poverty.
Factors facilitating sustainable scientific partnerships between developed and developing countries
Kunert KJ, Botha AM, Oberholster PJ, Yocgo R, Chimwamurombe P, Vorster J and Foyer CH
International scientific partnerships are key to the success of strategic investments in plant science research and the farm-level adoption of new varieties and technologies, as well as the coherence of agricultural policies across borders to address global challenges. Such partnerships result not only in a greater impact of published research enhancing the career development of early and later stage researchers, but they also ensure that advances in plant science and crop breeding technologies make a meaningful contribution to society by brokering acceptance of emerging solutions to the world problems. We discuss the evidence showing that despite a lack of funding, scientists in some African countries make a significant contribution to global science output. We consider the criteria for success in establishing long-term scientific partnerships between scientists in developing countries in Southern Africa ("the South") and developed countries such as the UK ("the North"). We provide our own personal perspectives on the key attributes that lead to successful institutional collaborations and the establishment of sustainable networks of successful "North-South" scientific partnerships. In addition, we highlight some of the stumbling blocks which tend to hinder the sustainability of long-term "North-South" scientific networks. We use this personal knowledge and experiences to provide guidelines on how to establish and maintain successful long-term "North-South" scientific partnerships.
Not only the seed matters: Farmers' perceptions of sources for banana planting materials in Uganda
Kilwinger FB, Marimo P, Rietveld AM, Almekinders CJ and van Dam YK
The adoption of improved seed and other planting material in developing countries shows mixed results despite their potential to increase agricultural productivity. To arrive at a better understanding of the observed adoption rates, a lot of research is focused on finding the cultivars and variety traits that are attractive to farmers. Given smallholder farmers' seed sourcing practices are often influenced by social ties and cultural norms, it is also relevant to understand where and why farmers seek to acquire planting material. In this study, means-end chain analysis was applied to understand farmers' perceptions of formal and informal sources of banana planting material. Means-end chain analysis allows respondents to select and verbalize their own constructs to evaluate a product or service. These personally relevant constructs are subsequently linked to their personal goals via laddering interviews. We interviewed 31 Ugandan banana farmers from Western and Central region. Farmers associated formal sources mainly with improved cultivars, tissue culture plantlets and low levels of diversity. Informal seed sources were mostly associated with traditional cultivars, suckers and high levels of diversity. The goals farmers pursued while acquiring planting material, such as financial gains, food security, and to sustain and develop the household, were fairly similar among different groups of farmers. The means through which farmers aimed and preferred to pursue these goals differed and could be related to aspects such as gender, production scale and production goals. These differences among farmers preferences for particular sources indicate that not only cultivar traits should be tailored to farmers' preferences and needs, but also the characteristics of the sources from which farmers access planting material.
Options for agricultural service cooperatives in a postsocialist economy: Evidence from Romania
Wolz A, Möllers J and Micu MM
Almost three decades since the collapse of the socialist regime, Romania's farm structure is characterized by a distinct dual pattern. The far majority of farms is relatively small, while a small number manages about half of the total utilized agricultural area. Most farmers face significant constraints in creating viable farm businesses. When this is the case, it can be assumed that farmers will unite and establish agricultural service cooperatives (ASCs), as has been observed in many other parts of the world. In Romania, however, as in many other postsocialist economies, farmers tend to be reluctant to form or join formal organizations of mutual assistance. Yet there are signs of change, as first ASCs have recently been established. The objectives of this contribution are twofold: First, we discuss the major obstacles why ASCs did not develop after regime change. Second, we analyze the major reasons and influencing factors why private family farmers become more open to this type of formal organization in recent years. The analysis is based on a literature review, farm statistics, and qualitative in-depth interviews with farmers in 2018.
Improved feeding and forages at a crossroads: Farming systems approaches for sustainable livestock development in East Africa
Paul BK, Groot JC, Maass BL, Notenbaert AM, Herrero M and Tittonell PA
Dairy development provides substantial potential economic opportunities for smallholder farmers in East Africa, but productivity is constrained by the scarcity of quantity and quality feed. Ruminant livestock production is also associated with negative environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution, high water consumption, land-use change, and loss of biodiversity. Improved livestock feeding and forages have been highlighted as key entry point to sustainable intensification, increasing food security, and decreasing environmental trade-offs including GHG emission intensities. In this perspective article, we argue that farming systems approaches are essential to understand the multiple roles and impacts of forages in smallholder livelihoods. First, we outline the unique position of forages in crop-livestock systems and systemic obstacles to adoption that call for multidisciplinary thinking. Second, we discuss the importance of matching forage technologies with agroecological and socioeconomic contexts and niches, and systems agronomy that is required. Third, we demonstrate the usefulness of farming systems modeling to estimate multidimensional impacts of forages and for reducing agro-environmental trade-offs. We conclude that improved forages in East Africa are at a crossroads: if adopted by farmers at scale, they can be a cornerstone of pathways toward sustainable livestock systems in East Africa.
Sticking with the old seed: Input value chains and the challenges to deliver genetic gains to smallholder maize farmers
Rutsaert P and Donovan J
The Kenyan maize seed sector exhibits high hybrid adoption rates, a growing number of seed companies, and an extensive agro-dealer network. Nonetheless, maize yields remain low and uptake of new, stress-tolerant varieties has been disappointing. This article investigates interactions in maize seed value chains in Kenya, and decisions made by agro-dealers, farmers, and seed companies, to gain a better understanding of how to encourage the uptake of new, stress-tolerant varieties. Data were collected during the 2019 seed-purchasing season from Kenyan seed companies ( = 8), agro-dealers ( = 80), and farmers immediately following their seed purchase ( = 466). Most agro-dealers had a wide offer of seed products available, but seed companies' engagement with them was limited and marketing efforts were directly focused on farmers. Only a fraction of farmers used the agro-dealer environment to guide their decision-making. However, when agro-dealers engaged with farmers, they influenced varietal selection in 80% of the cases. Agro-dealers were one of the key information outlets about maize seed varieties. Seed company engagement with agro-dealers and in-store promotions (push marketing) should be further explored to improve returns on investments in seed systems.
Tracing legume seed diffusion beyond demonstration trials: An exploration of sharing mechanisms
Almekinders CJ, Ronner E and van Heerwaarden J
Many interventions are assuming that introduced seeds diffuse. However, the details of this diffusion among farmers are poorly understood. This article presents data from eight sites in four on the diffusion of seed and associated information given to farmers involved in N2Africa's demonstration trials. The study showed that 2-3 years after the trials had been organised, more than 90% of the farmers who had participating in the trial activities and were given a seed-input package with 1-5 kg of legume seed had shared this seed, on average with four other farmers. The farmers who received this seed from these directly involved farmers shared their seed less frequently. Eighty per cent of all the seed sharings were of 1-2 kg of seed given as a gift. Only 5% of the sharings involved a cash transaction. More than half of the seed sharings were with family members and around a third were between friends. Men shared at least as often as women and both men and women shared most with persons of their own sex. Information about rhizobium as an associated input for soya was shared by more than one-third of farmers, almost exclusively by farmers who had participated in the demonstration trials themselves. Extrapolation of data suggest that in addition to the 250,000 farmers who participated directly in the N2Africa demonstration trials, another 1,400,000 farmers may have received seed of a new legume crop or variety. The results show that knowing about the character of the seed sharing mechanisms may offer opportunities to influence the diffusion of seeds. Providing farmers with somewhat larger amounts of seeds, emphasise the importance of sharing seeds and information with relatives and friends could be an important factor in achieving a high multiplier effect.
Poverty eradication and food security through agriculture in Africa: Rethinking objectives and entry points
Gassner A, Harris D, Mausch K, Terheggen A, Lopes C, Finlayson RF and Dobie P
Agriculture in Africa is expected to meet the dual objectives of providing food and helping people to escape poverty. African agriculture is dominated by smallholdings and donors generally target their agricultural support at the smallholder sector. The expectation is that if the gap between actual and potential yields can be closed, smallholders will grow sufficient crops to feed their families, with a surplus to sell, thus meeting food security needs and bringing in an income to move them out of poverty. In practice, this is often not possible. While technologies already exist that can raise smallholder farmers' yields 3 or 4 times, even under rainfed conditions, the small size of land available to them limits how much can be grown and the per capita income from agriculture is insufficient to allow people to move above the current World Bank-defined poverty line of US$1.90 per day. We link this finding with farmer typologies to further explain that there are large differences between individual farming households themselves in terms of their investment incentives and capability to benefit from field-level technologies that are aimed at increasing farm productivity. We argue for more differentiated policies for agricultural development in Africa and suggest that policymakers should be much more aware of the heterogeneity of farms and target interventions accordingly. It is important to understand where and for whom agriculture will have the main purpose of ensuring food and nutritional security and where and for whom there is the potential for significant increases in incomes and a contribution to wider economic growth. Let us recognize the distinctiveness of these targets and underlying target groups and work towards solutions that address the underlying needs.
The birth rate decline in developing countries
Robey B
Population growth and natural resource use: do we need to despair of Africa?
Tiffen M and Mortimore M
The authors make the case that population growth can lead to increases in agricultural output per head on a sustainable basis. This argument, originally developed by E. Boserup, is "illustrated by a study of Machakos District, Kenya during 1930-1960, which shows that, if policies are supportive, agricultural and non-farm incomes grow faster than even the rapid population growth rate experienced in Africa. Land use capability is not fixed, but can be transformed by investment, new technologies and good management. Lack of investment and consequent degradation are most likely at low population densities. While the study cannot foretell the future, Java illustrates a similar theme at even higher densities."