ADCoC: Adaptive Distribution Modeling Based Collaborative Clustering for Disentangling Disease Heterogeneity from Neuroimaging Data
Conventional clustering techniques for neuroimaging applications usually focus on capturing differences between given subjects, while neglecting arising differences between features and the potential bias caused by degraded data quality. In practice, collected neuroimaging data are often inevitably contaminated by noise, which may lead to errors in clustering and clinical interpretation. Additionally, most methods ignore the importance of feature grouping towards optimal clustering. In this paper, we exploit the underlying heterogeneous clusters of features to serve as weak supervision for improved clustering of subjects, which is achieved by simultaneously clustering subjects and features via nonnegative matrix tri-factorization. In order to suppress noise, we further introduce adaptive regularization based on coefficient distribution modeling. Particularly, unlike conventional sparsity regularization techniques that assume zero mean of the coefficients, we form the distributions using the data of interest so that they could better fit the non-negative coefficients. In this manner, the proposed approach is expected to be more effective and robust against noise. We compared the proposed method with standard techniques and recently published methods demonstrating superior clustering performance on synthetic data with known ground truth labels. Furthermore, when applying our proposed technique to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from a cohort of patients with Parkinson's disease, we identified two stable and highly reproducible patient clusters characterized by frontal and posterior cortical/medial temporal atrophy patterns, respectively, which also showed corresponding differences in cognitive characteristics.
Quantifying Mobility and Mixing Propensity in the Spatiotemporal Context of a Pandemic Spread
COVID-19 is the most acute global public health crisis of this century. Current trends in the global infected and death numbers suggest that human mobility leading to high social mixing are key players in infection spread, making it imperative to incorporate the spatiotemporal and mobility contexts to future prediction models. In this work, we present a generalized spatiotemporal model that quantifies the role of human social mixing propensity and mobility in pandemic spread through a composite latent factor. The proposed model calculates the exposed population count by utilizing a nonlinear least-squares optimization that exploits the intrinsic linearity in SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, or Recovered). We also present inverse coefficient of variation of the daily exposed curve as a measure for infection duration and spread. We carry out experiments on the mobility and COVID-19 infected and death curves of New York City to show that boroughs with high inter-zone mobility indeed exhibit synchronicity in peaks of the daily exposed curve as well as similar social mixing patterns. Furthermore, we demonstrate that several nations with high inverse coefficient of variations in daily exposed numbers are amongst the worst COVID-19 affected places. Our insights on the effects of lockdown on human mobility motivate future research in the identification of hotspots, design of intelligent mobility strategies and quarantine procedures to curb infection spread.
Optimisation of Non-Pharmaceutical Measures in COVID-19 Growth via Neural Networks
On [Formula: see text] March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or measures. However, some have, through a different timeline of actions, prevented this exponential growth. Currently as some continue to tackle growth, others attempt to safely lift restrictions whilst avoiding a resurgence. This study seeks to quantify the impact of government actions in mitigating viral transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by a novel soft computing approach that makes concurrent use of a neural network model, to predict the daily slope increase of cumulative infected, and an optimiser, with a parametrisation of the government restriction time series, to understand the best set of mitigating actions. Data for two territories, Italy and Taiwan, have been gathered to model government restrictions in travelling, testing and enforcement of social distance measures as well as people connectivity and adherence to government actions. It is found that a larger and earlier testing campaign with tighter entry restrictions benefit both regions, resulting in significantly less confirmed cases. Interestingly, this scenario couples with an earlier but milder implementation of nationwide restrictions for Italy, thus supporting Taiwan's lack of nationwide lockdown, i.e. earlier government actions could have contained the growth to a degree that a widespread lockdown would have been avoided, or at least delayed. The results, found with a purely data-driven approach, are in line with the main findings of mathematical epidemiological models, proving that the proposed approach has value and that the data alone contains valuable knowledge to inform decision makers.
A System-Driven Taxonomy of Attacks and Defenses in Adversarial Machine Learning
Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, specifically supervised learning, are widely used in modern real-world applications, which utilize Computational Intelligence (CI) as their core technology, such as autonomous vehicles, assistive robots, and biometric systems. Attacks that cause misclassifications or mispredictions can lead to erroneous decisions resulting in unreliable operations. Designing robust ML with the ability to provide reliable results in the presence of such attacks has become a top priority in the field of adversarial machine learning. An essential characteristic for rapid development of robust ML is an arms race between attack and defense strategists. However, an important prerequisite for the arms race is access to a well-defined system model so that experiments can be repeated by independent researchers. This paper proposes a fine-grained system-driven taxonomy to specify ML applications and adversarial system models in an unambiguous manner such that independent researchers can replicate experiments and escalate the arms race to develop more evolved and robust ML applications. The paper provides taxonomies for: 1) the dataset, 2) the ML architecture, 3) the adversary's knowledge, capability, and goal, 4) adversary's strategy, and 5) the defense response. In addition, the relationships among these models and taxonomies are analyzed by proposing an adversarial machine learning cycle. The provided models and taxonomies are merged to form a comprehensive system-driven taxonomy, which represents the arms race between the ML applications and adversaries in recent years. The taxonomies encode best practices in the field and help evaluate and compare the contributions of research works and reveals gaps in the field.