Social Infrastructure and the Alleviation of Loneliness in Europe
In Europe, individualist societies, in which people more highly value independence, have fewer people who are lonely. Yet these societies also have more people who live alone, a strong determinant of loneliness. Evidence suggests that some unrecognized societal-level resources or characteristics can explain this. We uncover multiple pathways toward a lower degree of loneliness among European societies using an ideal method for this purpose, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. Using data from the 2014 wave of the European Social Survey and other sources, we analyzed loneliness outcomes among 26 European societies. Our findings suggest two necessary conditions for a low degree of loneliness: high internet access and high association participation. Further, three pathways are sufficient for achieving less loneliness at the societal level. Most societies that have less loneliness follow both the welfare support and cultural support pathways. The third path, commercial provision, is mutually exclusive with welfare support because the former requires a weak welfare state. The surest policy for building societies that have lower rates of loneliness includes the expansion of internet accessibility, the fostering of civil society through association participation and volunteering, and a welfare state that protects potentially vulnerable populations while funding opportunities for social interaction. This article further contributes methodologically by demonstrating "configurational robustness testing," a more comprehensive means to implement current best practices for fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis robustness testing.
A New Social Conflict on Globalisation-Related Issues in Germany? A Longitudinal Perspective
We draw on cleavage theory to assess the emergence of a social conflict concerning globalisation-related issues among the German population between 1989 and 2019. We argue that issue salience and opinion polarisation are key conditions for a successful and sustainable political mobilisation of citizens and thus for the emergence of a social conflict. In line with globalisation cleavage theory, we hypothesised that issue salience as well as overall and between-group opinion polarisation on globalisation-related issues have increased over time. Our study considers four globalisation-related issues: immigration, the European Union (EU), economic liberalism, and the environment. While the salience of the EU and economic liberalism issues remained low during the observed period, we found a recent increase in salience for the issues of immigration (since 2015) and the environment (since 2018). Furthermore, our results point to rather stable attitudes on globalisation-related issues among the German population: We did not find any consistent evidence of an increase in overall or between-group polarisation over time. In conclusion, the idea of an emerging conflict around globalisation-related issues among the German population finds very little empirical support.
[Partnership and migration. A theoretical explanation of an empirical effect]
[Social determinants of life expectancy]
"Life expectancy and mortality increasingly are analyzed in the context of social factors. This study analyzes the impact of social position, marital status, and religious confession on cohort life expectancy. The analysis is based on [German data from the] Socio-Economic Panel Survey, wherein proxy-interviewee's parents have been used to estimate cohort mortality. Results confirm a lower mortality risk of the upper classes and of married persons. However, as opposed to other studies, Catholics do not have a lower, but even a higher mortality risk." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
[Regional living conditions, migration, and family composition]
"On the basis of life history data of German birth cohorts born 1929-31, 1939-41, and 1949-51 hypotheses about the relation between regional context, migration and family formation are tested. Results of proportional hazard models do not show significant regional effects on first birth rates for stayers when sociostructural variables are controlled for. However, social background and employment status of [women], which are proved to be important factors concerning family formation, reflect differential regional opportunities on the labor market. For men including the indicator of marriage in the model makes the regional effect insignificant." The impact on fertility of rural or urban residence and of rural-urban migration is analyzed. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
[The expansion of the educational system and the birth decline in the Federal Republic of Germany: a cohort-based simulation on the impact of the changing educational structure on reproductive behavior]
"Demographic studies on cohort fertility have revealed that the birth decline in the [Federal Republic of Germany] was accompanied or even brought about by a considerable postponement in parenthood. By means of event history analysis and micro-simulation this article shows that the postponement of motherhood can be attributed to the expansion of the educational system that took place in the 60s and early 70s. Furthermore, changes in educational structure have contributed markedly to increased childlessness in the younger generation, whereas there is no relation between the reduction in family size and the structural changes in education. The impact of increased education on the family life-cycle can be explained by labour market theories, whereas traditional theories have neglected biographic aspects of fertility." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
[Socio-structural and individualistic theories of migration. Elements of a comparison of theories]
[Non-marital living arrangements--alternatives to marriage? An international data review]
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM MEXICO AND POLAND
In this article we use uniquely comparable data sets from two very different settings to examine how exogenous economic transformations affect the likelihood and selectivity of international out-migration. Specifically, we use data from the Mexican Migration Project to construct event history files predicting first U.S. trips from seven communities in the state of Veracruz, which until recently sent very few migrants abroad. Similarly, using data from the Polish Migration Project, we derive comparable event history files predicting first trips to Germany from four Polish communities, which also sent few migrants abroad before the 1980s. Our analyses suggest that the onset of structural adjustment in both places had a significant effect in raising the probability of international migration, even when controlling for a set of standard variables specified by other theories to influence migration propensity, such as the size of the binational income gap and various indicators of human and social capital.
[Innovation Crisis in Public Theatre? A Longitudinal Study of Theaters in North Rhine-Westphalia, 1995-2018]
This paper examines cultural innovations in German public theaters, using North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) as the most populated region as an example. While existing analyses, including social structure-centered audience research, have focused on the demand side, diagnosing in particular the steady decline and aging of the cultural audience, our analysis addresses the supply side, especially the number of premieres and new productions as well as their adoption into the repertoire. The paper shows that recent efforts by public theaters on the municipal or regional level to increase both the number of venues and the number of plays have not been sufficient to stabilize the declining audience. Too few new plays are scheduled, of which even fewer make it into the long-term repertoire. Our results suggest that theaters can retain their capability for renewal only by staging significantly more new plays, thus attracting new audiences. With regard to such renewal, decentralized competition as a characteristic of the NRW theater landscape seems a favorable institutional context.
Persisting Differences or Adaptation to German Fertility Patterns? First and Second Birth Behavior of the 1.5 and Second Generation Turkish Migrants in Germany
In this study, we use data of the German Mikrozensus to explore first and second birth behavior of migrants' descendants. Whereas prior waves of the Mikrozensus only included respondents' citizenship, in the survey years 2005 and 2009 also parental citizenship has been surveyed. This allows us to identify respondents' migrant backgrounds, even if they have German citizenship. We distinguish those who migrated as children (1.5 generation) from those who were born to Turkish parents in Germany (second generation migrants). We compare both migrant generations to German non-migrants. Using discrete-time hazard models, our results show that 1.5 generation migrants have the highest probability of having a first and second birth, while German non-migrants have the lowest birth probabilities. The second generation lies in-between. This pattern also persists after taking the educational attainment of respondents into consideration. However, there seems to be an adaptation of highly educated second generation Turkish migrants to non-migrant Germans: we find no significant differences in the probability of having a first birth in the two groups. For second births, we do not find this pattern which might be related to the young age structure in the sample of second generation migrants.
How the Welfare-State Regime Shapes the Gap in Subjective Well-Being Between People With and Without Disabilities
This paper focuses on disability, an under-researched area of inequality, and subjective well-being. According to social production function theory, people with a disability do not have the same opportunities as people without disabilities to obtain resources, instrumental goals, and ultimately subjective well-being. Social participation and employment seem to be crucial mechanisms behind such disparities. The social system of a country (macro level) also shapes the gap in subjective well-being between both groups. The main objective of this paper is to analyse the gap in subjective well-being between people with and without disabilities. How is this gap linked to social participation and labour market integration, and how does the welfare-state regime shape the gap in subjective well-being between people with and without disabilities? The core of this research are multilevel analyses of cumulative European Social Survey data from 31 European countries. The results reveal that people with disabilities show significantly lower subjective well-being than people without disabilities. Welfare-state regimes have an effect on this gap, with social-democratic (and family-oriented) Nordic countries performing best in providing equal living conditions for people with and without disabilities.
Regional Mortality Disparities in Germany: Long-Term Dynamics and Possible Determinants
While regional mortality inequalities in Germany tend to be relatively stable in the short run, over the course of the past century marked changes have occurred in the country's regional mortality patterns. These changes include not only the re-emergence of stark differences between eastern and western Germany after 1970, which have almost disappeared again in the decades after the reunification of Germany in 1990; but also substantial changes in the disparities between northern and southern Germany. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the northern regions in Germany had the highest life expectancy levels, while the southern regions had the lowest. Today, this mortality pattern is reversed. In this paper, we study these long-term trends in spatial mortality disparities in Germany since 1910, and link them with theoretical considerations and existing research on the possible determinants of these patterns. Our findings support the view that the factors which contributed to shape spatial mortality variation have changed substantially over time, and suggest that the link between regional socioeconomic conditions and recorded mortality levels strengthened over the last 100 years.
How to Construct a Mixed Methods Research Design
This article provides researchers with knowledge of how to design a high quality mixed methods research study. To design a mixed study, researchers must understand and carefully consider each of the dimensions of mixed methods design, and always keep an eye on the issue of validity. We explain the seven major design dimensions: purpose, theoretical drive, timing (simultaneity and dependency), point of integration, typological versus interactive design approaches, planned versus emergent design, and design complexity. There also are multiple secondary dimensions that need to be considered during the design process. We explain ten secondary dimensions of design to be considered for each research study. We also provide two case studies showing how the mixed designs were constructed.
[What Happens After Childbirth? Changes in Partners' Employment Patterns Three Years After the Transition to Parenthood]
For many couples, the transition to parenthood also marks a transition to gender-specific employment arrangements. However, decisions about employment arrangements after the birth of the first child can be critical for future employment patterns and old-age provision. This article focuses on two questions: first, whether after the transition to parenthood there is a convergence in the employment patterns of younger parental couples born in the 1980s compared with birth cohorts born in the 1970s, and second, whether a division of labour before the transition to parenthood plays an increasing role in employment arrangements afterwards. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analysed the employment patterns of 900 couples over 36 months after the transition to parenthood using sequence, cluster, and regression analysis methods. It was shown that even though traditional employment arrangements have declined in importance, they continue to dominate. Furthermore, the convergence observed is due more to the increasing discontinuities in men's employment trajectories than to the birth of the child. Moreover, the prebirth division of labour has a rather minor influence on the postbirth employment arrangements of younger parental couples. The findings suggest that greater efforts should be made to reduce gender inequalities in the labour market in order to create further incentives for a more equal division of labour in the couple context.
[The Prestige of Housewives in Germany-A Quantitative-Empirical Analysis of Differential Perceptions]
The employment rate of women has increased markedly over the past decades, both internationally and in Germany, whereas the classic male breadwinner model is eroding. Against this background, using current survey data, the aim of this study is to examine the social prestige of the shrinking group of housewives whose main activity is domestic and family work. The analyses address, on the one hand, the question of how high their reputation is generally rated by the population in Germany and, on the other hand, whether the perceptions differ systematically by raters' sociodemographic characteristics. The empirical findings show that the reputation of housewives in Germany is generally rated higher than that of the unemployed and of those in helper jobs but lower than for those in professional jobs at the skilled level. Moreover, the assessments of housewives' prestige vary significantly according to the social group (birth cohort, level of education, labor force participation, gender) to which the respondents belong. Further analyses of interaction effects also reveal a differentiated interaction of the gender variable with the other structural group characteristics. The paper concludes with a detailed discussion of the results and an outlook on future research.
Social Background Effects on Educational Outcomes-New Insights from Modern Genetic Science
Sociological theory and empirical research have found that parents' socioeconomic status and related resources affect their children's educational outcomes. Findings from behavior genetics reveal genetic underpinnings of the intergenerational transmission of education, thus altering previous conclusions about purely environmental transmission mechanisms. In recent years, studies in molecular genetics have led to new insights. Genomic data, polygenic scores, and other facets of sociogenomics are increasingly used to advance research in social stratification. Notably, the 2018 discovery of "genetic nurture" suggested that parents' genes influence children above and beyond the genes they directly transmitted to their children. Such indirect genetic effects can be interpreted as consequences of parental behavior, which is itself influenced by the parents' genetics and is essential for their children's environment. Indirect genetic effects fit hand in glove with the sociological literature because they represent environmental transmission mechanisms. For instance, parenting behaviors, which are partly influenced by parents' genes, shape children's home environments and possibly their later educational outcomes. However, current findings based on more sophisticated research designs demonstrate that "genetic nurture" effects are actually much smaller than initially assumed and hence call for a reevaluation of common narratives found in the social stratification literature. In this paper, we review recent developments and ongoing research integrating molecular genetics to study educational outcomes, and we discuss their implications for sociological stratification research.
[Prohibited Comparisons? Population Statistics and the Question of Comparability in the German Colonies (1885-1914)]
This article explores the relationship between statistical classifications and comparisons in German colonial statistics between 1885 and 1914. It questions the importance and the characteristics of comparison in terms of space and population in colonial statistics. The aim is to sharpen the view of statistical methods and categories in an imperial context. The results show that the statistical observation of colonies was based on a territorial distinction between metropole and colonies, which led to the use of different methods. I argue that this territorial and methodological distinction was interwoven with a fundamental incomparability between colonized populations and colonizers.
[Who Feels Excluded? On the Use of the Concept of Social Exclusion to Analyze Current Societal Trends]
The concept of social exclusion has had an astonishing career in the social sciences. The focus of this paper is an empirical investigation of the use of this concept to analyze current societal trends. From this theoretical perspective we derive four theses, which are empirically tested in this paper with a focus on the perception of exclusion: First, that because of the processes of economic structural change, larger population groups are affected by social exclusion in several dimensions (unemployment, poverty, social isolation), culminating in a subjective sense of exclusion among them. Thus, it is assumed that social exclusion has become the main social cleavage in contemporary society. Second, it is assumed that social exclusion cannot be clearly located in classical sociostructural categories but has diffused into broad segments of society. Third, socioeconomic precariousness and social isolation are thought to play a central role in the emergence of a subjective sense of exclusion. Here, and fourth, it is assumed, however, that this impacts on the sense of exclusion via the subjective perception of the objective life conditions. We test these theses derived from this theoretical perspective on the basis of survey data, using the sense of exclusion as a dependent variable. It becomes clear that, first, social exclusion has not diffused into large parts of society and thus can by no means be regarded as the main social cleavage in society; and second, an increased sense of exclusion can be found in different but clearly identifiable social groups. Moreover, our analyses show that the subjective sense of exclusion is rooted in both social isolation and socioeconomic precariousness, albeit clearly mediated by their subjective perception.
[Longer Unemployment Insurance Benefits in Times of Crisis? Covid-19 and the Appropriate Maximum Benefit Duration]
This article deals with the question of which unemployment benefit durations are considered fair for which groups. In addition, it examines the extent to which individuals consider longer unemployment insurance benefit durations to be appropriate in times of economic crisis, such as the current situation during the Covid-19 pandemic. Longer reference periods can stabilize the income situation of benefit recipients and can provide time to search for an adequate job and thus increase matching quality. However, they also initially reduce the pressure to look for a job, and they lengthen the period of unemployment in the longer term. Using survey data from two online surveys done in November 2019 and during the crisis in May 2020, we examine which unemployment benefit durations employees consider appropriate. For this purpose, we presented vignettes to the survey participants describing hypothetical unemployed people whose characteristics varied randomly. The results show that the same respondents considered similar reference periods to be appropriate at both dates. In addition, the respondents took into account criteria of contribution as well as neediness when assessing the appropriate duration of benefits for the unemployed. Characteristics such as the age of the unemployed and any existing culpability, life benefits, or contribution periods influenced the duration of the benefit receipt that respondents judged to be appropriate.
Is the Effect of Environmental Attitudes on Behavior Driven Solely by Unobserved Heterogeneity?
A large body of research exists investigating the link between environmental attitudes and behavior. Many empirical studies have found modest positive effects, suggesting that attitudes toward the environment might indeed influence environmental behavior. However, most of the previous empirical work is cross-sectional and correlational in nature. This means that the issue of the causal effect of environmental attitudes on behavior is far from settled, and that the relationships observed in the past may be due to unobserved confounders. In a panel study using six waves of the GESIS Panel Survey, we examine the individual-level effect of changes in one's attitudes on changes in different forms of environmental behavior. We use fixed effects panel regression within the structural equation modeling framework to control for unobserved time-invariant confounders, while also tackling other methodological challenges. We find that environmental attitudes have no effect on behavior after controlling for unobserved confounders. However, there is a robust effect of attitudes on willingness to sacrifice. This suggests that creating more positive attitudes might make individuals more willing to accept sacrifices for environmental protection.
The Biodemography of Fertility: A Review and Future Research Frontiers
The social sciences have been reticent to integrate a biodemographic approach to the study of fertility choice and behaviour, resulting in theories and findings that are largely socially-deterministic. The aim of this paper is to first reflect on reasons for this lack of integration, provide a review of previous examinations, take stock of what we have learned until now and propose future research frontiers. We review the early foundations of proximate determinants followed by behavioural genetic (family and twin) studies that isolated the extent of genetic influence on fertility traits. We then discuss research that considers gene and environment interaction and the importance of cohort and country-specific estimates, followed by multivariate models that explore motivational precursors to fertility and education. The next section on molecular genetics reviews fertility-related candidate gene studies and their shortcomings and on-going work on genome wide association studies. Work in evolutionary anthropology and biology is then briefly examined, focusing on evidence for natural selection. Biological and genetic factors are relevant in explaining and predicting fertility traits, with socio-environmental factors and their interaction still key in understanding outcomes. Studying the interplay between genes and the environment, new data sources and integration of new methods will be central to understanding and predicting future fertility trends.
[Cohort fertility of men and women in the Federal Republic of Germany. A measurement with data from empirical social research]
The availability of mates and the consequences for cohort fertility by sex in Germany is analyzed using pooled data from various fertility surveys conducted since 1900. "All German male cohorts born before 1930 have a greater number of children than their female counterparts. German men up to cohorts around 1930 experienced favourable conditions of the marriage market due to the consequences of the two World Wars.... The general decline of births beginning around 1970 will, however, turn around this relative position. Leaving the preferred age-difference between spouses unchanged smaller female cohorts will now be able to select partners from greater (and older) cohorts of potential male partners. These changing relative positions are already visible in the differences between male and female cohort fertility." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability
To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.
[Perceived Inequality and Political Demand]
According to a recent social science debate, citizens tend to perceive income inequality rather inaccurately, which also influences their acceptance of redistributive policy programmes. The study reported in this article examines whether this can be confirmed using the example of the wealth tax. The wealth tax was suspended in Germany in 1996, but politicians have been debating its reintroduction for several years. Against the background of the debate on biased perceptions in the formation of distributional policy preferences, the article asks, first, how accurately the existing tax burden on wealthy households through the top income tax rate is assessed and whether a bias has consequences for the support of a wealth tax. Second, based on approaches that attribute an important role to mass media in the formation of distributional policy preferences, the influence of media framing on the acceptance of this controversial instrument is examined. According to data from an online survey, the burden of the top income tax tends to be overestimated. The more the tax is overestimated, the lower the political support for a wealth tax. Framing experiments with randomized control and treatment groups have mapped current discourses around the wealth tax and reconstructed positive frames-wealth taxes as an investment promoting tax reform, as a contribution to the reduction of national debt caused by the coronavirus pandemic-as well as negative frames-restriction of investments and loss of jobs if companies are burdened. Exposing potential job losses significantly lowers the support for a wealth tax. Strong support drops to the middle category of "partly/partly," a signal of indecision. The struggle for naming power is thus open. Support for a property tax becomes uncertain the more that political communication activates the framework of threatened jobs.
Active Inference and Social Actors: Towards a Neuro-Bio-Social Theory of Brains and Bodies in Their Worlds
Although research including biological concepts and variables has gained more prominence in sociology, progress assimilating the organ of experience, the brain, has been theoretically and technically challenging. Formal uptake and assimilation have thus been slow. Within psychology and neuroscience, the traditional brain, which has made brief appearances in sociological research, is a "bottom-up" processor in which sensory signals are passed up the neural hierarchy where they are eventually cognitively and emotionally processed, after which actions and responses are generated. In this paper, we introduce the Active Inference Framework (AIF), which casts the brain as a Bayesian "inference engine" that tests its "top-down" predictive models against "bottom-up" sensory error streams in its attempts to resolve uncertainty and make the world more predictable. After assembling and presenting key concepts in the AIF, we describe an integrated neuro-bio-social model that prioritizes the microsociological assertion that the scene of action is the situation, wherein brains enculturate. Through such social dynamics, enculturated brains share models of the world with one another, enabling collective realities that disclose the actions afforded in those times and places. We conclude by discussing this neuro-bio-social model within the context of exemplar sociological research areas, including the sociology of stress and health, the sociology of emotions, and cognitive cultural sociology, all areas where the brain has received some degree of recognition and incorporation. In each case, sociological insights that do not fit naturally with the traditional brain model emerge intuitively from the predictive AIF model, further underscoring the interconnections and interdependencies between these areas, while also providing a foundation for a probabilistic sociology.