In the independent component model, the multivariate data are assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components. The independent component analysis (ICA) then aims at estimating these latent components. In this article, we study an ICA method which combines the use of linear and quadratic autocorrelations to enable efficient estimation of various kinds of stationary time series. Statistical properties of the estimator are studied by finding its limiting distribution under general conditions, and the asymptotic variances are derived in the case of ARMA-GARCH model. We use the asymptotic results and a finite sample simulation study to compare different choices of a weight coefficient. As it is often of interest to identify all those components which exhibit stochastic volatility features we suggest a test statistic for this problem. We also show that a slightly modified version of the principal volatility component analysis can be seen as an ICA method. Finally, we apply the estimators in analysing a data set which consists of time series of exchange rates of seven currencies to US dollar. Supporting information including proofs of the theorems is available online.

This article studies the sensitivity of Granger causality to the addition of noise, the introduction of subsampling, and the application of causal invertible filters to weakly stationary processes. Using canonical spectral factors and Wold decompositions, we give general conditions under which additive noise or filtering distorts Granger-causal properties by inducing (spurious) Granger causality, as well as conditions under which it does not. For the errors-in-variables case, we give a continuity result, which implies that: a 'small' noise-to-signal ratio entails 'small' distortions in Granger causality. On filtering, we give general necessary and sufficient conditions under which 'spurious' causal relations between (vector) time series are not induced by linear transformations of the variables involved. This also yields transformations (or filters) which can eliminate Granger causality from one vector to another one. In a number of cases, we clarify results in the existing literature, with a number of calculations streamlining some existing approaches.

Many studies record replicated time series epochs from different groups with the goal of using frequency domain properties to discriminate between the groups. In many applications, there exists variation in cyclical patterns from time series in the same group. Although a number of frequency domain methods for the discriminant analysis of time series have been explored, there is a dearth of models and methods that account for within-group spectral variability. This article proposes a model for groups of time series in which transfer functions are modeled as stochastic variables that can account for both between-group and within-group differences in spectra that are identified from individual replicates. An ensuing discriminant analysis of stochastic cepstra under this model is developed to obtain parsimonious measures of relative power that optimally separate groups in the presence of within-group spectral variability. The approach possess favorable properties in classifying new observations and can be consistently estimated through a simple discriminant analysis of a finite number of estimated cepstral coefficients. Benefits in accounting for within-group spectral variability are empirically illustrated in a simulation study and through an analysis of gait variability.

We study non-parametric regression function estimation for models with strong dependence. Compared with short-range dependent models, long-range dependent models often result in slower convergence rates. We propose a simple differencing-sequence based non-parametric estimator that achieves the same convergence rate as if the data were independent. Simulation studies show that the proposed method has good finite sample performance.

Periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models are indicated for time series whose mean, variance, and covariance function vary with the season. In this paper, we develop and implement forecasting procedures for PARMA models. Forecasts are developed using the innovations algorithm, along with an idea of Ansley. A formula for the asymptotic error variance is provided, so that Gaussian prediction intervals can be computed. Finally, an application to monthly river flow forecasting is given, to illustrate the method.

Motivated by problems in Sleep Medicine and Circadian Biology, we present a method for the analysis of cross-sectional categorical time series collected from multiple subjects where the effect of static continuous-valued covariates is of interest. Toward this goal, we extend the spectral envelope methodology for the frequency domain analysis of a single categorical process to cross-sectional categorical processes that are possibly covariate dependent. The analysis introduces an enveloping spectral surface for describing the association between the frequency domain properties of qualitative time series and covariates. The resulting surface offers an intuitively interpretable measure of association between covariates and a qualitative time series by finding the maximum possible conditional power at a given frequency from scalings of the qualitative time series conditional on the covariates. The optimal scalings that maximize the power provide scientific insight by identifying the aspects of the qualitative series which have the most pronounced periodic features at a given frequency conditional on the value of the covariates. To facilitate the assessment of the dependence of the enveloping spectral surface on the covariates, we include a theory for analyzing the partial derivatives of the surface. Our approach is entirely nonparametric, and we present estimation and asymptotics in the setting of local polynomial smoothing.

In most hormonal systems (as well as many physiological systems more generally), the chemical signals from the brain, which drive much of the dynamics, can not be observed in humans. By the time the molecules reach peripheral blood, they have been so diluted so as to not be assayable. It is not possible to invasively (surgically) measure these agents in the brain. This creates a difficult situation in terms of assessing whether or not the dynamics may have changed due to disease or aging. Moreover, most biological feedforward and feedback interactions occur after time delays, and the time delays need to be properly estimated. We address the following two questions: (1) Is it possible to devise a combination of clinical experiments by which, via exogenous inputs, the hormonal system can be perturbed to new steady-states in such a way that information about the unobserved components can be ascertained; and, (2) Can one devise methods to estimate (possibly, time-varying) time delays between components of a multidimensional nonlinear time series, which are more robust than traditional methods? We present methods for both questions, using the Stress (ACTH-cortisol) hormonal system as a prototype, but the approach is more broadly applicable.

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a technique for obtaining low-resolution structural information about biological macromolecules, by exposing a dilute solution to a high-intensity X-ray beam and capturing the resulting scattering pattern on a two-dimensional detector. The two-dimensional pattern is reduced to a one-dimensional curve through radial averaging; that is, by averaging across annuli on the detector plane. Subsequent analysis of structure relies on these one-dimensional data. This paper reviews the technique of SAXS and investigates autocorrelation structure in the detector plane and in the radial averages. Across a range of experimental conditions and molecular types, spatial autocorrelation in the detector plane is present and is well-described by a stationary kernel convolution model. The corresponding autocorrelation structure for the radial averages is non-stationary. Implications of the autocorrelation structure for inference about macromolecular structure are discussed.