Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher than asset values, and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate an analogous phenomenon in the case of biomedical knowledge, when promising research receives inflated attention. We introduce a diffusion index that quantifies whether research areas have been amplified within social and scientific bubbles, or have diffused and become evaluated more broadly. We illustrate the utility of our diffusion approach in tracking the trajectories of cardiac stem cell research (a bubble that collapsed) and cancer immunotherapy (which showed sustained growth). We then trace the diffusion of 28,504 subfields in biomedicine comprising nearly 1.9 M papers and more than 80 M citations to demonstrate that limited diffusion of biomedical knowledge anticipates abrupt decreases in popularity. Our analysis emphasizes that restricted diffusion, implying a socio-epistemic bubble, leads to dramatic collapses in relevance and attention accorded to scientific knowledge.

People form impressions of one another in a split second from faces. However, people also infer others' momentary mental states on the basis of context-for example, one might infer that somebody feels encouraged from the fact that they are receiving constructive feedback. How do trait judgements of faces influence these context-based mental state inferences? In this Registered Report, we asked participants to infer the mental states of unfamiliar people, identified by their neutral faces, under specific contexts. To increase generalizability, we representatively sampled all stimuli from inclusive sets using computational methods. We tested four hypotheses: that trait impressions of faces (1) are correlated with subsequent mental state inferences in a range of contexts, (2) alter the dimensional space that underlies mental state inferences, (3) are associated with specific mental state dimensions in this space and (4) causally influence mental state inferences. We found evidence in support of all hypotheses.

Polygenic scores (PGS) enable the exploration of pleiotropic effects and genomic dissection of complex traits. Here, in 421,889 individuals with European ancestry from the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank, we examine how PGS of 17 neuropsychiatric traits are related to membership in 22 broad professional categories. Overall, we find statistically significant but weak (the highest odds ratio is 1.1 per PGS standard deviation) associations between most professional categories and genetic predisposition for at least one neuropsychiatric trait. Secondary analyses in UK Biobank revealed independence of these associations from observed fluid intelligence and sex-specific effects. By leveraging aggregate population trends, we identified patterns in the public interest, such as the mediating effect of education attainment on the association of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder PGS with multiple professional categories. However, at the individual level, PGS explained less than 0.5% of the variance of professional membership, and almost none after we adjusted for education and socio-economic status.

We use the rise of Black Lives Matter and the sentiment of racial sympathy to examine the interplay between the social movement and citizens' sympathetic actions in supporting Black people. Using detailed food order flow information from one of the largest online food delivery platforms in the USA, we find that the total number of food orders from Black-owned restaurants increased by 39% relative to nearby non-Black-owned restaurants in the 140 days following the murder of George Floyd on the basis of a difference-in-difference model. The platform company's strategic traffic allocation acted as an accelerator, enhancing the sympathetic responses of individuals, but it did not drive the entire surge in food orders. Protests resulting in severe injuries and those linked to demands for defunding the police diminished the positive sympathetic responses, highlighting a potential risk associated with protests. Our study provides large-scale, micro-level evidence that social movements and increased sympathy can foster collective actions to support marginalized communities.

The Internet is increasingly important in addressing age-related mental health challenges. We used linear mixed models and meta-analyses to examine the association between Internet use and mental health among 87,559 adults aged ≥50 years from 23 countries. Internet use was associated with fewer depressive symptoms (pooled average marginal effect (AME), -0.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.12 to -0.07), higher life satisfaction (pooled AME, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.10) and better self-reported health (pooled AME, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.17). For two countries (the USA and England) with genetic data available, positive associations between Internet use and mental health were observed across three genetic risk categories. For three countries (the USA, England and China), a higher frequency of Internet use was related to better mental health. Our findings are relevant to public health policies and practices in promoting mental health in later life through the Internet, especially in countries with limited Internet access and mental health services.

Public trust in scientists is critical to our ability to face societal threats. Here, across five pre-registered studies (N = 2,034), we assessed whether perceptions of scientists' intellectual humility affect perceived trustworthiness of scientists and their research. In study 1, we found that seeing scientists as higher in intellectual humility was associated with greater perceived trustworthiness of scientists and support for science-based beliefs. We then demonstrated that describing a scientist as high (versus low) in intellectual humility increased perceived trustworthiness of the scientist (studies 2-4), belief in their research (studies 2-4), intentions to follow their research-based recommendations (study 3) and information-seeking behaviour (study 4). We further demonstrated that these effects were not moderated by the scientist's gender (study 3) or race/ethnicity (study 4). In study 5, we experimentally tested communication approaches that scientists can use to convey intellectual humility. These studies reveal the benefits of seeing scientists as intellectually humble across medical, psychological and climate science topics.

Here we test the feasibility of using decision markets to select studies for replication and provide evidence about the replicability of online experiments. Social scientists (n = 162) traded on the outcome of close replications of 41 systematically selected MTurk social science experiments published in PNAS 2015-2018, knowing that the 12 studies with the lowest and the 12 with the highest final market prices would be selected for replication, along with 2 randomly selected studies. The replication rate, based on the statistical significance indicator, was 83% for the top-12 and 33% for the bottom-12 group. Overall, 54% of the studies were successfully replicated, with replication effect size estimates averaging 45% of the original effect size estimates. The replication rate varied between 54% and 62% for alternative replication indicators. The observed replicability of MTurk experiments is comparable to that of previous systematic replication projects involving laboratory experiments.

Humans spend on average 6.5 hours a day online. A large portion of that time is dedicated to information-seeking. How does this activity impact mental health? We assess this over four studies (n = 1,145). We reveal that the valence of information sought affects mental health, which in turn influences the valence of information sought, forming a self-reinforcing loop. We quantified the valence of text on webpages participants chose to browse using natural language processing and found that browsing more negative information was associated with worse mental health and mood. By manipulating the webpages browsed and measuring mood and vice versa, we show that the relationship is causal and bidirectional. Finally, we developed an intervention that altered web-browsing patterns in a manner that improved mood. Together, the findings suggest that the information sought reflects mental state and shapes it, creating a loop that may perpetuate mental health problems. The results also provide a potential method for assessing and enhancing welfare in the digital age.

In April 2022, mandatory kilocalorie (kcal) labelling in the out-of-home food sector was introduced as a policy to reduce obesity in England. Here we examined whether the implementation of this policy was associated with a consumer behaviour change. Large out-of-home food sector outlets subject to kcal labelling legislation were visited pre- and post-implementation, and customer exit surveys were conducted with 6,578 customers from 330 outlets. Kcals purchased and consumed, knowledge of purchased kcals and reported noticing and use of kcal labelling were examined. The results suggested that the introduction of the mandatory kcal labelling policy in England was not associated with a significant decrease in self-reported kcals purchased (B = 11.31, P = 0.564, 95% confidence interval (CI) -27.15 to 49.77) or consumed (B = 18.51, P = 0.279, 95% CI -15.01 to 38 52.03). Post-implementation, participants underestimated the energy content of their purchased meal less (B = 61.21, P = 0.002, 95% CI 21.57 to 100.86) and were more likely to report noticing (odds ratio 2.25, P < 0.001, 95% CI 1.84 to 2.73) and using (odds ratio 2.15, P < 0.001, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.85) kcal labelling, which may have wider public health implications.

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. Here, to evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs indicated high confidence in their predictions, their responses were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where LLMs assist humans in making discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavours.

The Linearbandkeramik (LBK) Neolithic communities were the first to spread farming across large parts of Europe. We report genome-wide data for 250 individuals: 178 individuals from whole-cemetery surveys of the Alföld Linearbankeramik Culture eastern LBK site of Polgár-Ferenci-hát, the western LBK site of Nitra Horné Krškany and the western LBK settlement and massacre site of Asparn-Schletz, as well as 48 LBK individuals from 16 other sites and 24 earlier Körös and Starčevo individuals from 17 more sites. Here we show a systematically higher percentage of western hunter-gatherer ancestry in eastern than in western LBK sites, showing that these two distinct LBK groups had different genetic trajectories. We find evidence for patrilocality, with more structure across sites in the male than in the female lines and a higher rate of within-site relatives for males. At Asparn-Schletz we find almost no relatives, showing that the massacred individuals were from a large population, not a small community.

This study aimed to test theoretical predictions over biological underpinnings of previously documented phenotypic correlations between human language-related and musical rhythm traits. Here, after identifying significant genetic correlations between rhythm, dyslexia and various language-related traits, we adapted multivariate methods to capture genetic signals common to genome-wide association studies of rhythm (N = 606,825) and dyslexia (N = 1,138,870). The results revealed 16 pleiotropic loci (P < 5 × 10) jointly associated with rhythm impairment and dyslexia, and intricate shared genetic and neurobiological architectures. The joint genetic signal was enriched for foetal and adult brain cell-specific regulatory regions, highlighting complex cellular composition in their shared underpinnings. Local genetic correlation with a key white matter tract (the left superior longitudinal fasciculus-I) substantiated hypotheses about auditory-motor connectivity as a genetically influenced, evolutionarily relevant neural endophenotype common to rhythm and language processing. Overall, we provide empirical evidence of multiple aspects of shared biology linking language and musical rhythm, contributing novel insight into the evolutionary relationships between human musicality and linguistic communication traits.

As one of the fastest-growing sectors in many economies, tourism plays a key role in shaping national economic conditions and growth. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has had profound impacts on tourist behaviour and psychology. Understanding tourists' behavioural and psychological responses to the pandemic is crucial for tourism businesses to manage and sustain post-COVID-19 tourism recovery. To address whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced tourists' thoughts and behaviours and the extent to which these changes might persist, we provide a narrative Review of the research on tourist behaviours and the psychological impacts of the pandemic. This Review delves into three themes: tourists' decision-making behaviour; the psychological impacts of the pandemic on tourists; and tourists' responses to crisis communication strategies. We argue that crisis communication strategies across sectors, pandemic-induced uncertainties and risks and psychological impacts were the predominant influences on tourists' travel decisions during the pandemic. We conclude by discussing which changes are likely to be sustained.

Social media have enabled laypersons to disseminate, at scale, links to news and public affairs information. Many individuals share such links without first reading the linked information. Here we analysed over 35 million public Facebook posts with uniform resource locators shared between 2017 and 2020, and discovered that such 'shares without clicks' (SwoCs) constitute around 75% of forwarded links. Extreme and user-aligned political content received more SwoCs, with partisans engaging in it more than politically neutral users. In addition, analyses with 2,969 false uniform resource locators revealed higher shares and, hence, SwoCs by conservatives (76.94%) than liberals (14.25%), probably because, in our dataset, the vast majority (76-82%) of them originated from conservative news domains. Findings suggest that the virality of political content on social media (including misinformation) is driven by superficial processing of headlines and blurbs rather than systematic processing of core content, which has design implications for promoting deliberate discourse in the online public sphere.

Young adults from low socioeconomic backgrounds face an increased risk of early mortality. Here we utilize population-wide data from 17 Norwegian birth cohorts (N = 986,573) to assess whether this risk gradient was explained by early-life educational performance, specifically grade point average at 16 years of age. We show that the gradients in both parental education and income largely disappeared when adjusting for school performance in the models. Specifically, among boys, those with the lowest parental education had an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 2.04 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.86-2.22) compared with peers with the highest parental education, while for girls, the HR was 1.64 (95% CI 1.35-1.93). After adjusting for school performance, these estimates dropped to 0.99 (95% CI 0.79-1.19) for boys and 0.87 (95% CI 0.55-1.19) for girls. Similarly, the mortality risk for those from the lowest parental income quartile decreased from 1.79 (95% CI 1.67-1.91) to 1.25 (95% CI 1.12-1.38) for boys and from 1.63 (95% CI 1.44-1.83) to 1.24 (95% CI 1.03-1.46) for girls. Low educational performance remained strongly associated with early mortality in analyses accounting for unobserved heterogeneity at the family level; boys with a grade point average in the lowest quartile had an HR of 3.04 (95% CI 2.38-3.89), while for girls, the HR was 1.79 (95% CI 1.22-2.63). External causes of death, particularly accidents and poisoning, were most overrepresented among individuals with poor school performance.

In many contemporary democracies, political polarization increasingly involves deep-seated intolerance of opposing partisans. The decades-old contact hypothesis suggests that cross-partisan interactions might reduce intolerance if individuals interact with equal social status. Here we test this idea by implementing collaborative contact between 1,227 pairs of citizens (2,454 individuals) with opposing partisan sympathies in Mexico, using the online medium to credibly randomize participants' relative social status within the interaction. Interacting under both equal and unequal status enhanced tolerant behaviour immediately after contact; however, 3 weeks later, only the salutary effects of equal contact endured. These results demonstrate that a simple, scalable intervention that puts people on equal footing can reduce partisan polarization and make online contact into a prosocial force.