JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY

On the management of population immunity
Toxvaerd F and Rowthorn R
This paper considers a susceptible-infected-recovered type model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination directly induce such herd immunity, which builds up over time. Optimal treatment is shown to involve intervention at early stages of the epidemic, while optimal vaccination may defer intervention to intermediate stages. Thus, while treatment and vaccination have superficial similarities, their effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic are different. Equilibrium vaccination is qualitatively similar to socially optimal vaccination, while equilibrium treatment differs in nature from socially optimal treatment. The optimal policies are compared to traditional non-economic public health interventions which rely on herd immunity thresholds.
Labor markets during pandemics
Kapička M and Rupert P
The COVID-19 pandemic has killed millions across the globe and government responses have led to tens of millions of jobs lost. This paper combines the SIR epidemic model with a frictional labor market to examine the interaction between infection, wages and unemployment. The labor market is not efficient during the pandemic. Optimal policies show that it is often optimal to shut down businesses and impose a quarantine before the pandemic peaks. A quarantine itself is not enough, however, and must be complemented by additional policies. The policies are not unique and include a Pigouvian "infection tax" on those infected, a tax on susceptible individuals, higher unemployment benefits and a tax on vacancy creation. All policies are state dependent and depend both on the number of unemployed and on the number of infected.
On Ramsey's conjecture
Mitra T and Sorger G
Studying a one-sector economy populated by finitely many heterogeneous households that are subject to no-borrowing constraints, we confirm a conjecture by Frank P. Ramsey according to which, in the long run, society would be divided into the set of patient households who own the entire capital stock and impatient ones without any physical wealth. More specifically, we prove (i) that there exists a unique steady state equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable and (ii) that along every equilibrium the most patient household owns the entire capital of the economy after some finite time. Furthermore, we prove that despite the presence of the no-borrowing constraints all equilibria are efficient. Our results are derived for the continuous-time formulation of the model that was originally used by Ramsey, and they stand in stark contrast to results that - over the last three decades - have been found in the discrete-time version of the model.
Evolution and the Growth Process: Natural Selection of Entrepreneurial Traits
Galor O and Michalopoulos S
This research suggests that a Darwinian evolution of entrepreneurial spirit played a significant role in the process of economic development and the dynamics of inequality within and across societies. The study argues that entrepreneurial spirit evolved non-monotonically in the course of human history. In early stages of development, risk-tolerant, growth promoting traits generated an evolutionary advantage and their increased representation accelerated the pace of technological progress and the process of economic development. In mature stages of development, however, risk-averse traits gained an evolutionary advantage, diminishing the growth potential of advanced economies and contributing to convergence in economic growth across countries.
Information-Constrained Optima with Retrading: An Externality and Its Market-Based Solution
Kilenthong WT and Townsend RM
This paper studies the efficiency of competitive equilibria in environments with a moral hazard problem and unobserved states, both with retrading in ex post spot markets. The interaction between private information problems and the possibility of retrade creates an externality, unless preferences have special, restrictive properties. The externality is internalized by allowing agents to contract ex ante on market fundamentals determining the spot price or interest rate, over and above contracting on actions and outputs. Then competitive equilibria are equivalent with the appropriate notion of constrained Pareto optimality. Examples show that it is possible to have multiple market fundamentals or price-islands, created endogenously in equilibrium.
Endogenous Groups and Dynamic Selection in Mechanism Design
Madeira GA and Townsend RM
We create a dynamic theory of endogenous risk sharing groups, with good internal information, and their coexistence with relative performance, individualistic regimes, which are informationally more opaque. Inequality and organizational form are determined simultaneously. Numerical techniques and succinct re-formulations of mechanism design problems with suitable choice of promised utilities allow the computation of a stochastic steady state and its transitions. Regions of low inequality and moderate to high wealth (utility promises) produce the relative performance regime, while regions of high inequality and low wealth produce the risk sharing group regime. If there is a cost to prevent coalitions, risk sharing groups emerge at high wealth levels also. Transitions from the relative performance regime to the group regime tend to occur when rewards to observed outputs exacerbate inequality, while transitions from the group regime to the relative performance regime tend to come with a decrease in utility promises. Some regions of inequality and wealth deliver long term persistence of organization form and inequality, while other regions deliver high levels of volatility. JEL Classification Numbers: D23,D71,D85,O17.
Birth-date dependent population ethics: critical-level principles
Blackorby C, Bossert W and Donaldson D
"This paper investigates birth-date dependent principles for social evaluation in an intertemporal framework in which population size may vary. We weaken the strong Pareto principle in order to allow individuals' birth dates to matter in establishing a social ordering. Using the axiom independence of the utilities of the dead, we characterize population principles with a recursive structure. If the individual substitution principle and an individual intertemporal equivalence axiom are added, birth-date dependent generalizations of the critical-level generalized utilitarian principles result. Stationarity leads to the special case of geometric discounting."
Migration equilibrium with price rigidity: the Harris and Todaro model revisited
Zylberberg A
The author attempts to build a general equilibrium model with migration possibilities on the lines of the Harris-Todaro model in which all the agents have explicit maximizing behavior. "Assumptions on wage-price rigidities allow consideration of various supply-demand configurations. One of the most interesting results is that policy recommendations derived from the usual Harris-Todaro model are not valid when excess supply prevails." The focus is on the situation in developing countries.
The optimum population and growth: a new look; a modification to include a preference for children in the welfare function
Votey Hl J
The long run limits to growth: renewable resources, endogenous population, and technological change
Schuler RE