The co-circulation of different emerging viral diseases is a big challenge from an epidemiological point of view. The similarity of symptoms, cases of virus co-infection, and cross-reaction can mislead in the diagnosis of the disease. In this article, a new mathematical model for COVID-19, zika, chikungunya, and dengue co-dynamics is developed and studied to assess the impact of COVID-19 on zika, dengue, and chikungunya dynamics and vice-versa. The local and global stability analyses are carried out. The model is shown to undergo a backward bifurcation under a certain condition. Global sensitivity analysis is also performed on the parameters of the model to determine the most dominant parameters. If the zika-related reproduction number is used as the response function, then important parameters are: the effective contact rate for vector-to-human transmission of zika ( , which is positively correlated), the human natural death rate ( , positively correlated), and the vector recruitment rate ( , also positively correlated). In addition, using the class of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and zika ( ) as response function, the most dominant parameters are: the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission ( , positively correlated), the effective contact rate for vector-to-human transmission of zika ( , positively correlated). To control the co-circulation of all the diseases adequately under an endemic setting, time dependent controls in the form of COVID-19, zika, dengue, and chikungunya preventions are incorporated into the model and analyzed using the Pontryagin's principle. The model is fitted to real COVID-19, zika, dengue, and chikungunya datasets for Espirito Santo (a city with the co-circulation of all the diseases), in Brazil and projections made for the cumulative cases of each of the diseases. Through simulations, it is shown that COVID-19 prevention could greatly reduce the burden of co-infections with zika, dengue, and chikungunya. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the control of the arbovirus diseases is also highlighted. Furthermore, it is observed that prevention controls for zika, dengue, and chikungunya can significantly reduce the burden of co-infections with COVID-19.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic outbreak at the end of 2019 and threaten global public health, social stability, and economic development, which is characterized by highly contagious and asymptomatic infections. At present, governments around the world are taking decisive action to limit the human and economic impact of COVID-19, but very few interventions have been made to target the transmission of asymptomatic infected individuals. Thus, it is a quite crucial and complex problem to make accurate forecasts of epidemic trends, which many types of research dedicated to deal with it. In this article, we set up a novel COVID-19 transmission model by introducing traditional SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) disease transmission models into complex network and propose an effective prediction algorithm based on the traditional machine learning algorithm TrustRank, which can predict asymptomatic infected individuals in a population contact network. Our simulation results show that our method largely outperforms the graph neural network algorithm for new coronary pneumonia prediction and our method is also robust and gives good results even if the network information is incomplete.

A control problem motivated by tissue engineering is formulated and solved in which control of the uptake of growth factors (signaling molecules) is necessary to spatially and temporally regulate cellular processes for the desired growth or regeneration of a tissue. Four approaches are compared for determining 1D optimal boundary control trajectories for a distributed parameter model with reaction, diffusion, and convection: (i) basis function expansion, (ii) method of moments, (iii) internal model control (IMC), and (iv) model predictive control (MPC). The proposed method-of-moments approach is computationally efficient while enforcing a non-negativity constraint on the control input. While more computationally expensive than methods (i)-(iii), the MPC formulation significantly reduced the computational cost compared to simultaneous optimization of the entire control trajectory. A comparison of the pros and cons of each of the four approaches suggests that an algorithm that combines multiple approaches is most promising for solving the optimal control problem for multiple spatial dimensions.

In this computational study we consider a generalized minimal model structure for the intravenously infused insulin-blood glucose dynamics, which can represent a wide variety of diabetic patients, and augment this model structure with a glucose rate disturbance signal that captures the aggregate effects of various internal and external factors on blood glucose. Then we develop a model-based, switching controller, which attempts to balance between optimal performance, reduced computational complexity and avoidance of dangerous hypoglycaemic events. We evaluate the proposed algorithm relative to the widely studied proportional-derivative controller for the regulation of blood glucose with continuous insulin infusions. The results show that the proposed switching control strategy can regulate blood glucose much better than the proportional-derivative controller for all the different types of diabetic patients examined. This new algorithm is also shown to be remarkably robust in the event of concurrent, unknown variations in critical parameters of the adopted model.

In this paper, the problem of social distancing in the spread of infectious diseases in the human network is extended by optimal control and differential game approaches. Hear, SEAIR model on simulation network is used. Total costs for both approaches are formulated as objective functions. SEAIR dynamics for group that contacts with individuals including susceptible, exposed, asymptomatically infected, symptomatically infected and improved or safe individuals is modeled. A novel random model including the concept of social distancing and relative risk of infection using Markov process is proposed. For each group, an aggregate investment is derived and computed using adjoint equations and maximum principle. Results show that for each group, investments in the differential game are less than investments in an optimal control approach. Although individuals' participation in investment for social distancing causes to reduce the epidemic cost, the epidemic cost according to the second approach is too much less than the first approach.

In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with re-infection in order to assess the impact of prior comorbidity (specifically, ) on COVID-19 complications. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of reinfection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. Simulations of the cumulative number of active cases (including those with comorbidity), at different reinfection rates, show infection peaks reducing with decreasing reinfection of those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.

An output feedback LQG compensator (combined controller and state estimator) for the regulation of intravenous-infused alcohol studies and treatment using a noninvasive transdermal alcohol biosensor is developed. The design is based on a population model involving an abstract semi-linear parabolic hybrid reaction-diffusion system involving coupled partial and ordinary differential equations with random parameters known only up to their distributions. The scheme developed is based on a weak formulation of the model equations in an appropriately constructed Gelfand triple of Bochner spaces wherein the unknown random parameters are treated as additional spatial variables. Implementation relies on a Galerkin-based approximation and convergence theory and an abstract formulation involving linear semigroups of operators. The model is fit and validated using laboratory collected human subject data and the method of moments. The results of numerical simulations of controlled intravenous alcohol infusion are presented and discussed.