Small businesses have suffered disproportionately from the COVID-19 pandemic. We use near-real-time weekly data from the Small Business Pulse Survey (April 26, 2020 - June 17, 2021) to examine the constantly changing impact of COVID-19 on small businesses across the United States. A set of multilevel models for change are adopted to model the trajectories of the various kinds of impact as perceived by business owners (subjective) and those recorded for business operations (objective), providing insights into regional resilience from a small business perspective. The findings reveal spatially uneven and varied trajectories in both the subjectively and the objectively assessed impact of COVID-19 across the U.S., and the different responses to the pandemic shock can be explained by evolving health situations and public policies, as well as by the economic structure and degree of socioeconomic vulnerability in different areas. This study contributes to scholarship on small businesses and regional resilience, as well as identifying policies and practices that build economic resilience and regional development under conditions of global pandemic disruption.

The COVID-19 pandemic changed behaviors, at least temporarily, and possibly more permanently, with implications for both work and leisure activities. Some of those behavioral changes, such as dining in restaurants, have significant ripple effects on businesses and employment. We investigate the response to health risks in China with a study of decisions about eating out during the pandemic. We find that compared to a traditional measure of financial risk attitude, dining out behavior better captures individuals' attitude toward the health risk posed by the pandemic and is more significant in predicting their expected total consumption during the recovery phase of the pandemic. In addition, we find that the effect of domestic in-migration is positive with respect to dining out, a signifier of confidence in the government response to the safety of internal flows. In contrast, international migration and port city of entry status are strongly negative with respect to dining out. The risk from the virus is perceived to be much stronger in such contexts. From a policy perspective establishing border controls was critical in re-creating a robust economy. Additional city and household level characteristics that affect dining-out behavior are also identified.

Subnational input-output (IO) tables capture industry- and region-specific production, consumption, and trade of commodities and serve as a common basis for regional and multi-regional economic impact analysis. However, subnational IO tables are not made available by national statistical offices, especially in the United States (US), nor have they been estimated with transparent methods for reproducibility or updated regularly for public availability. In this article, we describe a robust StateIO modeling framework to develop state and two-region IO models for all 50 states in the US using national IO tables and state industry and trade data from reliable public sources such as the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. We develop 2012-2017 state IO models and two-region IO models at the BEA summary level. The two regions are state of interest and rest of the US. All models are validated by a series of rigorous checks to ensure the results are balanced at state and national levels. We then use these models to calculate a 2012-2017 time series of macro economic indicators and highlight results for I I states that have distinct economies with respect to size, geography, and industry structure. We also compare selected indicators to state IO models created by popular licensed and open-source software. Our StateIO modeling framework is consolidated in an open-source R package, , to ensure transparency and reproducibility. Our StateIO models are US-focused, which may not be transferrable to international accounts, and form the economic base of state versions of the US environmentally-extended IO models.

In his presidential address to the Regional Science Association over thirty years ago, William Alonso presented the case for "Five Bell Shapes in Development" and argued that "the developed countries will enter fully in to the realm of the right-hand tail of these curves" (p. 16) and that this transition might result in several surprises. He proposed, therefore, that we should study the right tail of these "curves" as well as interactions among them. Much of what Alonso suggested has come to pass, although his prognostications were not always exact. And although he touched on several issues of relevance to regional scientists, the discipline has been slow to move away from a growth-centered paradigm. The strength of regional science-the capacity to consider economic, demographic, and geographical aspects of an issue simultaneously-has yet to be focused on some of the "right-hand" challenges that have arisen, population loss, for example. In this article, we provide a review of regional science research within the context of Alonso's five bells and hypothesize how Alonso's propositions might differ in today's world. We then focus more specifically on one particular area: population loss. Using these examples allows us to highlight how regional science might contribute to the conceptualization of "right-hand tail" development challenges, especially where theory, issues of spatial scale, and interregional dependencies are concerned.

While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

"This article focuses on forecasting migration between Australia and New Zealand (trans-Tasman migration), which is largely visa-free and therefore resembles internal migration. Net trans-Tasman migration is a major component of New Zealand population change and is embedded in this article in a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, which includes foreign and domestic economic variables. When time series of net migration are available, this approach provides a useful input into forecasting population growth in the short run in the absence of major policy changes. This conclusion applies equally to interregional migration and to unrestricted international migration between economically integrated nations."

"This article examines polarization reversal in terms of changing human resource profiles related to migration and to national policies affecting the spatial pattern of economic growth. It first demonstrates the relationship between these elements through a review that integrates three distinct themes in earlier research. Attention then turns to an empirical study of human resource variation among eight urban districts and the rest of Venezuela treated as a single unit. This comparison utilizes age, gender, educational attainment, and occupational status variables provided by individual records of Venezuela's 1971 Population Census. A concluding section relates empirical findings to policy alternatives."

"Nepal has been experiencing a permanent rural-to-rural migration of households from the central hill zone to the Terai region. Migrant households, due to the structure of the Terai economy, are impelled to acquire control of land for subsistence agriculture by squatting, purchasing, or receiving a grant. A household's ability to maximize subsistence opportunities is partly a function of the means by which land is acquired and whether land is acquired at all. Factors which determine the chances of acquiring land reflect the role of institutional rigidities such as the distribution of wealth and the caste structure, state-imposed land reform policies, and such household characteristics as family size and risk aversion. A multinomial logit model is used to empirically assess the importance of these elements in the outcomes of migrant households' resource acquisition decisions."

"This article presents a critical survey of research on extended input-output models, emphasizing recent developments in demographic-economic and socio-economic analysis. Basic principles of model design and construction are reviewed, by reference to a representative selection of extended models. Two research themes--labor market analysis and income distribution--are pursued in greater detail as examples of the directions of current work. A comparison is made between extended models and social accounting matrices."

"This article develops a two-region version of an extended input-output model that disaggregates consumption among employed, unemployed, and inmigrant households, and which explicitly models the influx into a region of migrants to take up a proportion of any jobs created in the regional economy. The model is empirically tested using real data for the Scotland (UK) regions of Strathclyde and Rest-of-Scotland. Sets of interregional economic, demographic, demo-economic, and econo-demographic multipliers are developed and discussed, and the effects of a range of economic and demographic impacts are modeled. The circumstances under which Hawkins-Simon conditions for non-negativity are breached are identified, and the limits of the model discussed."

"A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total inmigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified."

"Using ten Asian megacities as examples, this article discusses a range of megacity characteristics and problems, including population growth, economic structure, spatial strategies, land policy, urban service provision, institutional development, and managerial problems. In spite of major progress in urban service delivery, ineffective land policies and inadequate cost-recovery systems remain serious obstacles. Megacities need and are promoting policentric spatial structures, but implementation lags in many cases. Institutional reforms are needed to cope with the metropolitan region character of megacity growth."

"This paper shows that the frequency of migration can be best modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson process, because it takes into account the overwhelming presence of zeros (nonmigrants) in the data. A failure to do so can cause the coefficients to be biased and also result in poor prediction. The major finding is that by using a zero-inflated process, the performance of the model in predicting migration behavior is substantially improved. In addition, frequent movers tend to be white, nonunionized, and tend to have fewer children, less stable marriages, and more frequent occupational changes." Data are for the United States for the years 1977 to 1987 and are taken from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.

"This article uses event history data to specify a model of employment returns to initial migration, onward migration, and return migration among newly married persons in the U.S. Husbands are more likely to be full-time employed than wives, and being a parent reduces the employment odds among married women. Employment returns to repeated migration differ by gender, with more husbands full-time employed after onward migration and more wives full-time employed after return migration events. We interpret these empirical findings in the context of family migration theory, segmented labor market theory, and gender-based responsibilities." Data are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1979 to 1991.

"This article describes the emergent spatial dispersion pattern of the urban system of the Republic of Korea, where the government has instituted a strong decentralization policy. Intraregional decentralization is underway within the core area, while intraregional polarization towards larger regional centers is evident in periphery areas. Through the use of step-wise regression analysis, determinants of the differential growth rates of urban centers in the core and periphery are identified. The different spatial development processes operating in the core and periphery have implications for growth pole theory and regional development planning."

"Many developing nations have introduced policies designed to slow the rate of population growth of their largest cities. This article argues that there is a strong case for an explicit experimental or adaptive approach in policy design. Using the examples of Sao Paulo in Brazil and Seoul in South Korea, it is argued that coordinated trial and error methods with appropriate monitoring, evaluation, and policy revision can prove beneficial, especially given the high levels of uncertainty which surround both the objectives and the contexts of urbanization policies in most countries."

"This paper explores the twin concepts of labor demand and labor mobility during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. The study uses a detailed data set on labor stock, industrial labor demand, and labor flows for the 1980s in the Yaroslavl' Oblast, and data on migration and regional labor markets for all Russian regions in the 1990s. Contextual features, such as the social contract, full employment, methods of labor allocation, and a generally low rate of geographic mobility, distinguish the centrally planned quasi-labor market from the labor market in capitalist democracies. The findings suggest that net in-migration induces employment change in the current period rather than in a future period. The job creation effects appear concurrent with migration during the Soviet period. In the post-Soviet period, migration and employment relationships are not predictable based on the same relationships during the Soviet period."

"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."

"This article delineates the incidence and regional variation [in the United States] of natural decrease since 1950, considers the demographic factors that caused natural decrease, assesses each factor's relative impact, identifies shared characteristics of areas experiencing natural decrease, and considers the implications of natural decrease." Factors considered include shifts in the age structure, fertility declines, increases in mortality, and migration.

"Individual labor market experiences [in Venezuela] are examined in terms of educational attainment, labor force participation, and wages received. Explanatory factors include personal attributes and two multivariate scales measuring place characteristics related to development. The results indicate that place characteristics associated with development have important effects on labor market experiences.... Among the key findings of this research are that educational attainment most affected labor force participation by women and wages of men."

"Micro-level theories of why households change residence contrast with macro-level approaches that relate the level of spatial mobility to development. This article compares the rate of residential mobility in 16 [developed] countries or other areas and examines both regional variations within countries and changes in rates of local and nonlocal moving. Hypotheses that explain why countries differ in rates of residential mobility are examined."