Population Space and Place

Changes in mixed ethnicity households and neighbourhood transitions in England and Wales
Catney G, Ellis M and Wright R
Conventional explanations of neighbourhood ethnic transitions consider what drives differential growth in ethnic group populations without regard to household composition. We enrich these nonhousehold approaches by using consistent Census data on neighbourhoods and households for England and Wales for 2001, 2011 and 2021 to analyse connections between mixed-ethnicity households and neighbourhood ethnic diversity. We employ a neighbourhood typology of ethnic diversity that identifies neighbourhoods as either low- or moderate-diversity, or high-diversity, where no single ethnic group is in the majority. We focus particularly on White-majority and highly diverse neighbourhoods given the dominance of the former in residential spaces in England and Wales, and because they are the principal source of transitions to highly diverse neighbourhoods. Mixed-ethnicity households have become an increasingly important feature of the ethnic diversification of England and Wales; by 2021, almost 15% of multiperson households were mixed, a growth from 12% in 2011 and 9% in 2001. We find that higher levels of neighbourhood ethnic diversity are associated with higher shares of mixed-ethnicity households. In high-diversity neighbourhoods, for example, around 30% of multiperson households (nearly a quarter of a million households) were ethnically mixed in 2021. Levels of household mixing in moderate-diversity White neighbourhoods were considerably higher than in low-diversity White neighbourhoods. The same is found for diversifying neighbourhoods. Neighbourhoods that become more ethnically diverse were typically home to higher rates of mixed-ethnicity households. Stably moderately diverse White neighbourhoods also had a higher proportion of mixed households. Studies of neighbourhood transition that focus on individuals in neighbourhoods may be missing important processes operating in the intimate spaces of the home. Including this intermediate scale of analysis adds to our understanding of neighbourhood ethnic mixing and processes of integration.
Internal migration following adverse life events: Assessing the likelihood of return migration and migration toward family
Spring A, Gillespie BJ and Mulder CH
There are well-documented associations between life course changes and migration; yet, the occurrence, order, and timing of reasons for migrating are growing increasingly diverse. Migration following adverse life events, such as a divorce or an involuntary job loss, may be qualitatively distinct from migration undertaken for other reasons. Moves, especially long-distance moves, following adverse life events, may be defined more by seeking family and familiar locations. Moreover, a heightened probability of migration may occur not only immediately after an adverse life event but also in the years after. We explore these questions in the US context with longitudinal data from the 1983 to 2019 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which provides information on residential locations, locations of family members, and adverse life events for individuals over time. We focus on five specific events: divorce, the death of a spouse, involuntary job loss, the onset of a chronic physical health condition, and the onset of a chronic mental health condition. Using multivariate regression, we find that divorce and job loss induce long-distance moves, especially return moves and moves towards family. Chronic physical conditions deter moving in general but increase the chances of return moves (after a period of time) and moves towards family. These results have implications for understanding migration as a response to adverse life events, both immediately and over time.
Explaining the urban-rural gradient in later fertility in Europe
Riederer B and Beaujouan É
Demographic research shows that, in Europe, fertility takes place later and is lower in cities than in rural areas. One might expect fertility to be delayed in urban areas because of longer periods in education and enhanced career opportunities. We, therefore, examine how prevalent later fertility (35+ and 40+) is along the urban-rural axis, and whether differences can be explained by economic, cultural and compositional factors. We estimate multilevel random coefficient models, employing aggregated Eurostat data of 1328 Nomenclature des unités territoriales statistiques (NUTS) 3 and 270 NUTS 2 regions from 28 European countries. The urban-rural gradient in later fertility considerably diminishes once factors describing the economic environment, family and gender norms as well as population composition are accounted for. The higher prevalence of later fertility in cities is particularly associated with higher female education, greater wealth and a higher share of employment in high-technology sectors.
Parenting in place: Young children's living arrangement and migrants' sleep health in South Africa
Madhavan S, Kim SW, White M and Gomez-Olive X
Migration research tends to treat childrearing as a secondary role for migrants. By prioritising the economic objectives of migration, most models present migrants as either delaying childbearing or, if they have young children, not living with them. However, migration has become increasingly feminised, the types of mobility more varied, while the returns to migration remain uncertain at best. At the same time, norms around childrearing are shifting, and the capacity of kin to take care of children may be weakening. In such contexts, migrants may not want to or be able to be separated from their children. Confronting such difficult decisions and their consequences may be reflected in poor sleep health for the migrant parent. We draw on data from the Migration and Health Follow-Up Study (MHFUS) in South Africa to examine the following questions: (i) To what extent is children's coresidence associated with sleep health for migrant parents? (ii) Do effects vary by sex of migrant? and (iii) Do effects vary by location of migrant? Results from propensity score matching confirm that migrants who coreside with all their young children are more likely to experience healthy sleep compared to those who have nonresident or no young children. However, stratified analysis shows that these effects are only significant for women and those not living in Gauteng province. The value of these findings is underscored by the need for research on the well-being of migrant parents who are negotiating multiple agendas in economically precarious and physically insecure destinations.
A longitudinal area classification of migration in Great Britain: Testing the application of Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling
Kienast-von Einem C, Panter J and Reid A
The migration of people affects the geographical distribution of the population and the demographic composition of areas over the short, medium and long terms. To recognise and respond to the corresponding needs and challenges, including consequences for service provision, social cohesion and population health, there is a continuing need to understand migration patterns of the past and present. Area classifications are a useful tool to simplify the inherently complex data on migration flows and characteristics. Yet, existing classifications often lack direct migration measures or focus solely on cross-sectional data. This study addresses these limitations by employing Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling (GBMTM) to create a longitudinal, migration-specific classification of Great Britain's wards from 1981 to 2011, using six migration indicators. Using U.K. census data, we reveal six distinct migration clusters that highlight the rapid growth in studentifying neighbourhoods, the continuous influx of migrants into inner cities, and a noticeable North-South divide in terms of movers' tenure enforced by persisting income selectivity. Additionally, the geographical distribution of clusters shows a common pattern in urban areas irrespective of size or location. The longitudinal perspective of our GBMTM classification highlights trends and changes in migration patterns that are not well reflected in either the general purpose or the cross-sectional migration classification that we used as comparators. We conclude that the method presented and the classification generated offer a novel lens on migration and provide new opportunities to explore the effects of migration on a variety of outcomes and at various scales.
Racial residential segregation and child mortality in the southern United States at the turn of the 20th century
Karbeah J and Hacker JD
A growing body of research considers racial residential segregation to be a form of systemic racism and a fundamental cause of persistent racial disparities in health and mortality. Historical research examining the impact of segregation on health and mortality, however, is limited to a few studies with poor data and inconsistent results. In this study, we examine the association between racial residential segregation and child mortality in the South at the turn of the 20th century. We rely on the new IPUMS 1900 and 1910 complete-count databases to estimate child mortality in the 5 years before each census and construct segregation measures at the census enumeration district (ED), the lowest level of geography consistently available in the census. We calculate the proportion of households headed by Black individuals in each ED, and the Sequence Index of Segregation (), which is based on the racial sequencing of household heads within each district. We construct models of child mortality for rural and urban areas, controlling for a wide variety of demographic and socioeconomic variables. The results indicate that and were strongly and positively associated with the mortality of Black children in most models and in both rural and urban areas. was also positively but more moderately correlated with the mortality of White children, while was not correlated or negatively correlated. These results suggest that racial segregation was a long-standing fundamental cause of race disparities in health and mortality in the United States.
Union formation, within-couple dynamics, and child well-being: A global macrolevel perspective
Batyra E, Pesando LM, Castro AF, Furstenberg FF and Kohler HP
Studies on global changes in families have greatly increased over the past decade, adopting both a country-specific and, more recently, a cross-national comparative perspective. While most studies are focused on the drivers of global changes in families, little comparative research has explored the implications of family processes for the health and well-being of children. This study aims to fill this gap and launch a new research agenda exploring the intergenerational implications of union-formation and within-couple dynamics for children's health and well-being across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), both globally, regionally, and by the stage of fertility transition. We do so by adopting a macro-level perspective and a conceptualization of children's outcomes - health at birth, health in later life, and schooling - and leveraging Demographic and Health Survey and World Bank data across 75 LMICs. Our results show that in societies where partnerships are characterized by more equal status between spouses - i.e., where the age range between spouses and differences in years of schooling between partners are narrower - children fare better on several outcomes. These associations are particularly strong in mid- and high-fertility settings. Despite a series of regularities, our results also highlight a set of findings whereby, at a macro-level, the prevalence of marriage and divorce/separation are not invariably associated with children's outcomes, especially in LMICs where fertility is comparatively lower. We document little cross-regional heterogeneity, primarily highlighting the centrality of demographic factors such as age vis-à-vis, for instance, region-specific characteristics that are more tied to the social fabric of specific societies.
Estimating County Level Health Indicators Using Spatial Microsimulation
Seamon E, Megheib M, Williams CJ, Murphy CF and Brown HF
Given the importance of understanding health outcomes at fine spatial scales, iterative proportional fitting (IPF), a form of small area estimation, was applied to a fixed number of health-related variables (obesity, overweight, diabetes) taken from regionalized 2019 survey responses (n = 5474) from the Idaho Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Using associated county-level American Community Survey (ACS) census data, a set of constraints, which included age categorization, race, sex, and education level, were used to create county-level weighting matrices for each variable, for each of the seven (7) Idaho public health districts. Using an optimized modeling construction technique, we identified significant constraints and grouping splits for each variable/region, resulting in estimates that were internally and externally validated. Externally validated model results for the most populated counties showed correlations ranging from .79 to .85, with values all below .05. Estimates indicated higher levels of obesity and overweight individuals for midsouth and southwestern Idaho counties, with a cluster of higher diabetes estimates in the center of the state (Gooding, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Jerome counties). Alternative external sources for health outcomes aligned extremely well with our estimates, with wider confidence intervals in more rural counties with sparse populations.
Pathways to food insecurity: Migration, hukou and COVID-19 in Nanjing, China
Xu F, Crush J and Zhong T
The COVID-19 pandemic has issued significant challenges to food systems and the food security of migrants in cities. In China, there have been no studies to date focusing on the food security of migrants during the pandemic. To fill this gap, an online questionnaire survey of food security in Nanjing City, China, was conducted in March 2020. This paper situates the research findings in the general literature on the general migrant experience during the pandemic under COVID and the specifics of the Chinese policy of hukou. Using multiple linear regression and ordered logistic regression, the paper examines the impact of migration status on food security during the pandemic. The paper finds that during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, households without local Nanjing hukou were more food insecure than those with Nanjing hukou. The differences related more to the absolute quantity of food intake, rather than reduction in food quality or in levels of anxiety over food access. Migrants in China and elsewhere during COVID-19 experienced three pathways to food insecurity-an income gap, an accessibility gap, and a benefits gap. This conceptual framework is used to structure the discussion and interpretation of survey findings and also has wider potential applicability.
The end of urban sprawl? Internal migration across the rural-urban continuum in Switzerland, 1966-2018
Lerch M
In high-income countries, migration redistributed populations from congested city centres into the sparsely populated outskirts, raising challenges to environmental and population health and the conservation of biodiversity. We evaluate whether this periurbanisation process came to a halt in Switzerland by expecting a decline in internal migration and a renewed residential attractiveness of urban agglomeration centres (i.e., re-urbanisation)-two recent trend changes observed in Europe. Relying on data from censuses, registers and surveys, we describe trends in the intensity, geography and sociodemographic differentials of migration across consistently defined urban agglomeration density zones between 1966 and 2018. Although the overall intensity of migration declined, the rate increased among the working age population in part because of the societal diffusion of tertiary education. The dominant urban-bound migration flows are increasingly confined within agglomerations over time. After the diffusion of periurbanisation down the city hierarchy between 1966 and 1990, we observe the emergence of re-urbanisation in some agglomerations and sociodemographic groups around 2000. However, this phenomenon has been temporarily inflated by period-specific transformations in Swiss society. More recently, the process of periurbanisation intensified again and expanded more and more beyond official agglomeration borders.
Urban exodus? Understanding human mobility in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic using Meta-Facebook data
Rowe F, Calafiore A, Arribas-Bel D, Samardzhiev K and Fleischmann M
Existing empirical work has focused on assessing the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on human mobility to contain the spread of COVID-19. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the spatial patterns of population movement within countries. Anecdotal evidence of an urban exodus from large cities to rural areas emerged during early phases of the pandemic across western societies. Yet, these claims have not been empirically assessed. Traditional data sources, such as censuses offer coarse temporal frequency to analyse population movement over infrequent time intervals. Drawing on a data set of 21 million observations from Meta-Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and evolution of changes in the spatial patterns of population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Britain over an 18-month period from March 2020 to August 2021. Our findings show an overall and sustained decline in population movement during periods of high stringency measures, with the most densely populated areas reporting the largest reductions. During these periods, we also find evidence of higher-than-average mobility from high-density population areas to low-density areas, lending some support to claims of large-scale population movements from large cities. Yet, we show that these trends were temporary. Overall mobility levels trended back to precoronavirus levels after the easing of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Following these interventions, we found a reduction in movement to low-density areas and a rise in mobility to high-density agglomerations. Overall, these findings reveal that while COVID-19 generated shock waves leading to temporary changes in the patterns of population movement in Britain, the resulting vibrations have not significantly reshaped the prevalent structures in the national pattern of population movement. As of 2021, internal population movements sit at an intermediate level between those observed pre- and early phases of the pandemic.
Trends in internal migration in Japan, 2012-2020: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Kotsubo M and Nakaya T
In the past 10 years or so, there have been growing concerns in Japan that migration trends, such as large in-migration to the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) at the national scale and large movements from the suburbs to the centres at the metropolitan scale, have widened the core-periphery disparities at each scale under national population decline. However, the COVID-19 pandemic led to unexpected changes in these migration patterns, such as a weakened population concentration in the TMA. This study aims to examine internal migration trends from 2012, on axes of core-periphery in Japan and centre-suburbs in metropolitan areas, and the changes in the migration patterns caused by the pandemic in 2020. First, we prepared intermunicipal origin-destination tables by estimating the suppressed flows in 2012-2020 using the iterative proportional fitting technique, and then we calculated the net migration and migration efficiency indices based on seven area types: centre and suburbs of the TMA, centres and suburbs of major metropolitan areas, centres and suburbs of other metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan areas. The results indicate that the 2020 migration efficiency in the centre of the TMA drastically dropped to the lowest level during the study period, contrasting with an upward trend in 2012-2019. The pandemic strongly affected the migration patterns from/to and within the TMA, with much net gain in the suburbs from the centre, but the impact of migration efficiencies among the other areas was minimal. These findings can help in providing direction for the postpandemic policy challenge of spatial planning in Japan, for example, the weakened but still widening disparities between the TMA and the other regions and the renewed threat of urban sprawl caused by the increased migration from the centre to the suburbs within the TMA.
Tell me who's your neighbour and I'll tell you how much time you've got: The spatiotemporal consequences of residential segregation
Bó BB and Dukhovnov D
Relying on data from the United States Census and the American Time Use Survey (2010-2017), we examine how residential segregation influences per capita discretionary time availability in Los Angeles, New York City and Miami. We find a sizable disadvantage of being Latinx for discretionary time availability. Non-Latinx Whites have 182 extra hours of per capita discretionary time per year than do Latinx individuals. Both within-neighbourhood and adjacent-neighbourhood influences matter. In most neighbourhoods, segregation is correlated with having more discretionary time. Individuals in highly segregated areas have approximately 80 more hours of discretionary time per year than those living in diverse areas. This suggests that in addition to socioeconomic, cultural and well-being benefits, ethnic enclaves may also impart temporal advantages. However, we find that there may be diminishing marginal returns with increasing segregation in surrounding areas. Sociodemographic characteristics explain over one-quarter of the variance between segregation and discretionary time availability.
Continuity or change? How the onset of COVID-19 affected internal migration in Australia
Perales F and Bernard A
Despite anecdotal evidence of a COVID-19 induced decline in the intensity of interstate migration in Australia, population-level evidence is limited. The recent release of the 2020 wave of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey provides a unique opportunity to robustly assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the level, direction, determinants, and reasons for migration in Australia. By applying a series of regression models to individual-level longitudinal microdata, and measuring migration at a range of spatial scales, this paper shows that COVID-19 has somewhat accelerated the long-term decline in the intensity of internal migration-particularly for residential mobility, short-distance migration, and migration due to employment and involuntary reasons. The socio-demographic determinants of migration have remained broadly stable, despite a slight increase in the deterring effect of duration of residence and a reduction in the impact of education. Finally, we show that the increase in net migration gains in regional areas is underpinned by a decrease in outflows. Juxtaposing these results with aggregate-level migration statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics from 2021, we conclude that the effect of COVID-19 on internal migration to date has been minimal and is likely to be short-lived. However, it may still be too soon to make a definitive judgement, as shifts in work patterns stemming from the pandemic may further transform the level, direction, and composition of internal migration.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal migration in Germany: A descriptive analysis
Stawarz N, Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge M, Sander N, Sulak H and Knobloch V
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies, labor markets, health care, education and tourism around the globe in unprecedented ways. However, little research has yet been devoted to the impact that the pandemic might have had on internal migration. This study aims to address this gap by determining how the intensity and spatial patterns of internal migration changed between 2019 and 2020 in Germany. We draw on data from the population register on annual flows between 401 counties. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 5% drop in the intensity of inter-county migration in 2020 compared to the previous year, with significant variation across age. The pandemic was also associated with an upsurge in net migration losses for the largest cities, driven by fewer inflows of young adults and continuing outflows of families.
Pandemic transformations in migrant spaces: Migrant entrepreneurship between super-digitalization and the new precarity
Andrejuk K
The Covid-19 pandemic has brought about new patterns in labour market activities, including greater frequency, intensity and sectoral diversification of technology-mediated online work (super-digitalization). The development of online professional activities, accelerated by the pandemic, has a profound influence on migrant entrepreneurship in many dimensions. While the phenomenon also concerns the native population and is not limited to foreigners, in the case of migrant entrepreneurs it has additional unique meanings and consequences, resulting from a greater significance of mobility for migrants and its restriction during the pandemic. The analysis discusses new phenomena, such as the emergence of pandemic digital nomads and the development of migrant business ventures characterized by a de-ethnicized approach to customers. The theoretical framework for this analysis is the concept of super-digitalization of professional activities as a privilege. Digitalization is not available to everyone, but it affects everyone; it also has consequences for offline migrant entrepreneurs by creating and enhancing new mechanisms of exclusion. The article emphasizes the difference between super-digitalization and digitalization, which result in different outcomes for migrant entrepreneurs. The analysis is based on in-depth interviews with 53 Polish migrant entrepreneurs in the United Kingdom.
Understanding patterns of internal migration during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain
González-Leonardo M, López-Gay A, Newsham N, Recaño J and Rowe F
Existing empirical work has analysed the impacts of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility and international migration. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the patterns of internal migration. Anecdotal reports of mass migration from large cities to less populated areas have emerged, but lack of data has prevented empirically assessing this hypothesis. Drawing on geographically granular administrative population register data, we aim to analyse the extent of change in the patterns of internal migration across the urban hierarchy in Spain during 2020. Our results show a decline of 2.5% in the number of internal migration moves, particularly during the early stages of the pandemic, returning to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020. Results also reveal unusually large net migration losses in core cities and net migration gains in rural areas. Net migration losses in cities and gains in rural areas particularly accumulated following the elimination of the strict lockdown measures in June. Yet, these net losses and gains trended to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020, and movements between cities, and between cities and suburbs, continued to dominate the internal migration system. Thus, while the COVID-19 pandemic exerted notable changes in the geographic balance of internal migration flows, these changes appear to have been temporary and did not significantly alter the existing structures of the national migration system.
The COVID-19 pandemic and residential mobility intentions in the United States: Evidence from Google Trends data
Lei L and Liu X
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted people's lives through economic challenges, closure of worksites and schools and increased health risks. These disruptions can trigger new residential needs and preferences, but little research has been done regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on moving intentions. We theorized how the pandemic could influence intentions of making different types of residential moves. Using Google Trends data, we conducted a time-series analysis to assess the transitory, short-term and long-lasting changes in various types of mobility intentions since the pandemic. Results show that thoughts about temporary relocation surged at the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic and then experienced a long-term decrease. Intentions to move through housing purchases and rentals briefly declined at the beginning of the pandemic but then surpassed their normal levels in the following months. Thoughts about moving in with family or parents increased by almost 50% during the pandemic. These trends were also reflected in Google searches for moving services, which exhibited an initial decline followed by a long-term increase. The results demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic has not only posed obstacles that lowered moving intentions but also has created new needs and desires for moving.
Is the 'student city' lost? The rhythms of Lodz as a consumption-oriented student city through the COVID-19 pandemic lens
Zasina J and Nowakowska A
The COVID-19 pandemic calls into question the hosting of students as an urban growth formula after the spread of online education. Therefore, we look at Lodz, Poland, to understand how student cities operate during the pandemic and gain insights into their futures. We unfold the prepandemic and intrapandemic rhythms of students' presence and activities in Lodz's time-space and their attitudes toward the postpandemic future. We show that the pandemic spurred many students to escape from Lodz and changed the activities of those staying in the city by limiting their frequencies and locations. However, we expect students to repopulate Lodz, although its postpandemic existence might evolve through further rhythm changes. Moreover, it will depend not only on the students' demand for higher education  but also for collective consumption opportunities. Therefore, the pandemic itself does not seem to render the idea of a 'student city' obsolete in the long term.
Explaining cross-national differences in leaving home
van den Berg L, Kalmijn M and Leopold T
There are large cross-national differences in the age of leaving home. The literature offers cultural, economic, and institutional explanations for these differences but has not examined all three explanations in one study. We examine these three explanations using data of the European Social Survey (ESS) from 2002 to 2016, supplemented with year-specific macro-level indicators from other data sources. We use a dynamic pseudo-panel design, allowing us to track the home-leaving behaviour of cohorts born between 1970 and 1999 in 22 European countries. Our findings show that the three sets of explanations are additive rather than competing, each explaining some of the cross-national differences in leaving home. The cultural context forms the most important explanation for the cross-national variation. In total, we explain 80% of cross-national variation in leaving home. Important predictors are religiosity, individualistic family values, change in youth unemployment, GDP and the net replacement rate.
Long-term trends in intergenerational proximity: Evidence from a grandchild design
Kalmijn M
Competing claims exist about how the geographic distance between parents and their adult children has changed historically. A classic modernisation hypothesis is that people currently live further away from their parents than in the past. Others have argued for stability and the remaining importance of local family ties, in spite of a long-term decline in co-residence of adult children and parents. The current paper uses a novel design that relies on reports by grandchildren to study long-term changes in intergenerational proximity in the Netherlands. The analyses show that there has been a clear and continuous decline in intergenerational proximity between the 1940s and the 1990s. Mediation analyses show that educational expansion and urbanisation are the main reasons why proximity declined. No evidence is found for the role of secularisation and increasing international migration. Proximity to parents declined somewhat more strongly for women than for men.