JAHRBUCHER FUR NATIONALOKONOMIE UND STATISTIK

[International migration and income redistribution: a trade-theoretic analysis]
Leiner N and Meckl J
"We analyze the income-redistribution effects of international migration in the host and source country in a general equilibrium framework. The well-known result that marginal migration leaves the welfare of nonmigrants unaffected is discussed in more detail with regard to shifts in national income distributions. With endogenous goods' prices the consequences for the income distribution are in general ambiguous--we show possibilities for an estimation of their magnitude. As long as wage disparities determine the direction of migration it increases world efficiency. However, redistributive policies may generate migration towards the low-wage country." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Long-run migration incentives and migration effects: the case of different fertility rates
Meier V
"In this paper the direction of the long-run migration incentive in the presence of closed borders and the long-run welfare effects of a regime change from 'autarky' to 'free permanent migration' are studied. A difference in birth-country specific fertility rates is treated as the final cause for the creation of migration incentives in a two-country model where the standard overlapping-generations framework is used.... Opening the borders for permanent migration can always lead to the equalization of labour force growth rates. A continuum of such equilibria with migration does exist, but the application of the concept of migration-stability, introduced in this paper, gives reason to the suspicion that free migration can also lead to a collapse of the emigration country's economy." (SUMMARY IN GER)
On regional convergence in a transitional economy: the roles of migration and wages
Horn GA
The role of migration in influencing convergence between regions at different levels of economic development is analyzed using the example of Germany following reunification, with particular reference to the impact of migration on wages. "Several ways of regional wage formation are investigated, among them a full employment wage mechanism as well as a fast regional convergence of wages which is independent of productivity movements. The conclusion is that the impact of wage mechanisms on the convergence of per capita output is ambiguous. However social costs in terms of unemployment are high in case of a wage adjustment which is regardless of productivity growth." (SUMMARY IN GER)
[The theory of migration]
Delbruck C and Raffelhuschen B
"The present and expected migration flows in Europe require a detailed analysis of determinants and elements of migration decisions. This survey encompasses a view on classical--labor market and demand side oriented--theories, the more recent human capital approach as well as on migration under asymmetric information. Since these theories so far yield an unsatisfactory basis for description and forecasting of multilateral migration flows, a closer look at empirical methods of migration research is taken. Consequently, a description of possible policy oriented applications of the gravity model and the random utility approach, with their descriptive and normative characteristics, is given." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
[The influence of politically determined wage rates on migration between Germany's new and old states]
Meckl J
"This paper investigates the influence of politically determined wage rates on migration between Germany's new and old states. Apart from their direct influence on expected income and hence on migration, nominal wages affect migration indirectly by the unemployment they generate. Under reasonable assumptions the relation between nominal wages and migration is negative. The long-run influence of wages on capital accumulation and hence employment opportunities emphasizes that wage policy can be used either to control the long-run population stock or to stop migration immediately. That latter requires instantaneous wage-rate adjustments and initial wage-rate undershooting." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
[Family, fertility, and income distribution: is there a reason for political activities?]
Berthold N
"State interventionism in the family...is usually justified as a necessary correction of allocative and/or distributive distortions. A critical analysis of this argument, however, reveals three related aspects: 1) A changed regenerative behaviour is often less the result of inefficient inter-family decisions; rather it results from an efficient reaction to changed economic and political conditions. 2) Optimal inter-family decisions can be prevented by imperfect capital markets and interventionism of the welfare state. 3) A receding rate of fertility leads probably not only to a more even inter- and intra-family distribution of income, but also influences the inter-generational distribution in a positive way." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment
Carlberg M
"What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER)
[Shadow price and income concepts in the economic theory of fertility]
Bletzinger M and Walz U
"This paper deals with endogenous shadow prices and therefore non-linear budget constraints with endogenous income. In contrast to the quantity-quality-models in the economic theory of fertility, here, these main features result from assumptions concerning home production technology. The distinction between observable and 'true' change in income is crucial. Only the latter is relevant for microeconomic decision calculus. The concept of superiority is related to true changes in income, in the case of children as well. Nonetheless the presented model is able to explain negative observable income effects with respect to the number of children." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
The overcount in censuses of population
Zarkovich SS
"Coverage checks of censuses of population usually show an undercount. However, in [the] 1953 census of population in Yugoslavia a slight overcount was found. This was attributed to housing rationing that created a tendency [to over report].... Similar tendencies are also likely in the enumeration of emigrants. Therefore, more attention is needed to the problem of overcount in countries with housing rationing and strong emigration." (SUMMARY IN GER)
[Roots of modern population economics in German literature around 1900]
Zimmermann KF
"The economic theory of the family developed by Becker makes use of the microeconomic decision model of the rational agent and the distinction between quantity and quality of children. This theory provides a substantial contribution to the explanation of fertility decline in developed countries. The paper shows that all relevant elements of this theory and important statistical findings were already suggested and published between 1901 and 1910 by Brentano and Mombert in Germany." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
[Fertility life tables]
Grunewald W
"Three tables for measuring human fertility are presented. The first, the Parity-Fertility-Life-Table, includes the intensity of fertility only. The second table, the Marriage-Duration-Fertility-Life-Table, bases on the Parity-Fertility-Life-Table and measures the tempo of fertility altogether. The third table, the Birth-Interval-Fertility-Life-Table, completes the Marriage-Duration-Fertility-Life-Table in considering the point of time, at which the last parity is reached." The methods are illustrated using official data for the Federal Republic of Germany. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
An epilogue to the World Fertility Survey
Zarkovich SS
On the optimum theoretical rate of population growth
Simon JL and Steinmann G
"The paper seeks intuitively-satisfying models of optimum population growth. The authors build upon Phelps's model of endogenous technical progress plus the Steinmann-Simon extension, which imply that the per-person consumption growth rate depends positively and linearly upon the population growth rate, without bound.... They suggest that the consumption rate ultimately turns downwards as population growth increases because of decreasing adoption of available technology as labor cheapens relative to capital, and as high population growth overtaxes people's will and ability to respond. Including a convex-downward function in the model yields sensible results." (summary in GER)
[Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population]
Kurz R
[Declining birth rates as a cause of unemployment? Some remarks on the Gunther paradox]
Wagner A
[Two methods for the determination of working life tables and their problems]
Schaich E and Schweitzer W
[Population forecasting models and their limits]
Esenwein-rothe I
[Demographic change and state income support: an incidence analysis]
Von Weizsacker RK
"Starting from a simple, descriptive life-cycle model of individual income, an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes is established. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, two income maintenance programs are introduced: a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system. The resulting government budget constraints entail interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown not only to change, but in some cases even to reverse the distributional incidence of demographic trends. Several policy conflicts arise." (SUMMARY IN ENG)