Forecasts of the future cost and performance of technologies are often used to support decision-making. However, retrospective reviews find that many forecasts made by experts are not very accurate and are often seriously overconfident, with realized values too frequently falling outside of forecasted ranges. Here, we outline a hybrid approach to expert elicitation that we believe might improve forecasts of future technologies. The proposed approach iteratively combines the judgments of technical domain experts with those of experts who are knowledgeable about broader issues of technology adoption and public policy. We motivate the approach with results from a pilot study designed to help forecasters think systematically about factors beyond the technology itself that may shape its future, such as policy, economic, and social factors. Forecasters who received briefings on these topics provided wider forecast intervals than those receiving no assistance.

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is one of the leading causes of pregnancy-related death. Prenatal health care providers can offer critical screening and support to pregnant people who experience IPV. During the COVID-19 shelter-in-place order, mobile apps may offer such people the opportunity to continue receiving screening and support services.

Early career scientists sometimes observe senior scientists engage in apparent scientific misconduct, but feel powerless to intervene, lest they imperil their careers. We propose a Secure Reporting Procedure that both protects them, when pursuing those concerns, and treats the senior scientists fairly. The proposed procedure is, we argue, consistent with the ethical principles of the scientific community, as expressed in the codes of its professional organizations. However, its implementation will require changes in procedures and regulations. Those efforts will be a small price to pay for protecting the scientific community's integrity and fidelity to its principles. We begin by describing the circumstances motivating the proposal, then sketch its design, and, finally, illustrate next steps in its application in two national settings.

Sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates are on the rise among adolescents and young adults in the United States. With the popularity of online dating, adolescents and young adults must increasingly rely on limited cues to make initial judgments about potential sexual partners, including judgments about STI risk.

Despite significant advances in medical interventions and health care delivery, preterm births in the United States are on the rise. Existing research has identified important, seemingly simple precautions that could significantly reduce preterm birth risk. However, it has proven difficult to communicate even these simple recommendations to women in need of them. Our objective was to draw on methods from behavioral decision research to develop a personalized smartphone app-based medical communication tool to assess and communicate pregnancy risks related to preterm birth.

To identify pathways between stress indicators and adverse pregnancy outcomes, we applied a nonparametric graph-learning algorithm, PC-KCI, to data from an observational prospective cohort study. The Measurement of Maternal Stress study (MOMS) followed 744 women with a singleton intrauterine pregnancy recruited between June 2013 and May 2015. Infant adverse pregnancy outcomes were prematurity (<37 weeks' gestation), infant days spent in hospital after birth, and being small for gestational age (percentile gestational weight at birth). Maternal adverse pregnancy outcomes were pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension. PC-KCI replicated well-established pathways, such as the relationship between gestational weeks and preterm premature rupture of membranes. PC-KCI also identified previously unobserved pathways to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including 1) a link between hair cortisol levels (at 12-21 weeks of pregnancy) and pre-eclampsia; 2) two pathways to preterm birth depending on race, with one linking Hispanic race, pre-gestational diabetes and gestational weeks, and a second pathway linking black race, hair cortisol, preeclampsia, and gestational weeks; and 3) a relationship between maternal childhood trauma, perceived social stress in adulthood, and low weight for gestational age. Our approach confirmed previous findings and identified previously unobserved pathways to adverse pregnancy outcomes. It presents a method for a global assessment of a clinical problem for further study of possible causal pathways.

Pregnancy is a time of heightened COVID-19 risk. Pregnant individuals' choice of specific protective health behaviors during pregnancy may be affected by information sources.