Application of a Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment for Local Planning
The utility of a multi-hazard risk-scape at the county level is significant for county, state, regional, and national policy makers who rely on broad and consistent assessments of hazard exposure and losses. In previous work, the Patterns of Risk using an Integrated Spatial Multi-Hazard (PRISM) approach creates an index of county risk for this purpose. While helpful across large areas, the approach lacks information needed at more localized scales. In this paper, we employ the PRISM approach to all 2015 census tracts in the US. Use of a land-cover approach, with spatial extents and modeled data from 11 natural and 4 technological hazard types, determines spatial exposures. Furthermore, census counts allow for the estimation of population exposures in each tract by hazard type. The results of the tract-level index reveal exposure patterns that contrast the original PRISM model, with a concentration of risk shifting eastward. The distribution of land-cover and population exposure more closely resemble the county index, revealing the importance of scale and land-cover considerations, along with the need for additional investigation of risk drivers. We provide an application of the risk and multi-hazard exposures in two major metropolitan areas to demonstrate utility of the approach at this scale.
Simulating the Spatial Impacts of a Coastal Barrier in Galveston Island, Texas: A Three-Dimensional Urban Modeling Approach
Due to its vulnerability to hurricanes, Galveston Island, TX, USA, is exploring the implementation of a coastal surge barrier (also referred to as the "Ike Dike") for protection from severe flood events. This research evaluates the predicted effects that the coastal spine will have across four different storm scenarios, including a Hurricane Ike scenario and 10-year, 100-year, and 500-year storm events with and without a 2.4ft. sea level rise (SLR). To achieve this, we develop a 1:1 ratio, 3-dimensional urban model and ran real-time flood projections using ADCIRC model data with and without the coastal barrier in place. Findings show that inundated area and property damages due to flooding will both significantly decrease if the coastal spine is implemented, with a 36% decrease in the inundated area and $4 billion less in property damage across all storm scenarios, on average. When including SLR, the amount of protection of the Ike Dike diminishes due to flooding from the bay side of the island. While the Ike Dike does appear to offer substantial protection from flooding in the short term, integrating the coastal barrier with other non-structural mechanisms would facilitate more long-term protection when considering SLR.