Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Climate risk insurance in Pacific Small Island Developing States: possibilities, challenges and vulnerabilities-a comprehensive review
Jain DK, Chida A, Pathak RD, Jha R and Russell S
For the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS), climate change will greatly exacerbate their vulnerability. The PSIDS have a high ranking in the Climate Risk Index and the World Risk Index. Financial losses due to climate-induced disasters, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), are also high in the Pacific region. While climate risk insurance solutions could play a key role in the efficient distribution of recovery resources, there are many challenges to their successful implementation. Effective climate risk insurance products for the vulnerable sections of these societies are almost non-existent in this part of the world. Among the worst climate-induced disasters to affect the PSIDS are those related to cyclones and floods. These not only adversely impact the welfare of the households affected by these disasters, but they lower the long-term development potential of the countries involved. There is also evidence to suggest that climate-induced disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity over time due to climate change. It is against this background that an inquiry into the necessity for climate risk insurance products in the context of PSIDS should take place. This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature addressing climate risk insurance as a risk mitigation or climate adaptation tool for managing the climate-induced financial vulnerabilities in the PSIDS. The paper explores the affordability of climate risk insurance, particularly among the vulnerable sections of society, and discusses the challenges of implementing an appropriate climate risk insurance model in the region. Finally, it examines recent climate risk insurance initiatives that have been attempted by multilateral agencies, such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations' Pacific Financial Inclusion Practice (UNCDF), Pacific Insurance and Climate Adaptation Programme (PICAP), and respective local governments.
Climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal: implications for the advancement of adaptation planning
Karki G, Bhatta B, Devkota NR, Acharya RP and Kunwar RM
Climate change has become one of the most compelling fields of empirical research over the last couple of decades, partly due to its socio-economic impacts. Using a meta-analysis of 235 peer-reviewed articles published between January 2010 and July 2020, this paper appraises climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal and draws lessons for future adaptation planning. The number of research is observed to have increased significantly in recent years (2015-2020) although there is no consistent pattern over the review period and at the thematic level. Findings submit that the agriculture and food security has the highest number of publications (37%) followed by gender equality and social inclusion (18%) and forest, biodiversity and watershed management (16%). There are no studies found in rural and urban settlement theme. Geographic distribution of CCA studies revealed that over 40% studies were carried out from central Nepal, while no study was conducted in ten districts of eastern and western Nepal. The study focus was also discrete, and the perception and attitude and impact assessment of climate change were common agendas; however, the drivers of change and options for adaptation were understudied. CCA with multipronged initiatives provide a broader understanding of dynamics and governance of climate change that not only affects rural livelihoods, but also influences regional and global environments and biodiversity.
Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach
den Elzen MGJ, Dafnomilis I, Forsell N, Fragkos P, Fragkiadakis K, Höhne N, Kuramochi T, Nascimento L, Roelfsema M, van Soest H and Sperling F
By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCOeq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCOeq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCOeq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.
Level of preparedness of the residential building industry in Australia to climate change adaptation: a case of residential building companies in Brisbane, Queensland
Jayasinghe AD and Le Compete Forsyth Stewart P
The consequences of climate change are profound for the residential building industry and, unless appropriate adaptation strategies are implemented, will increase exponentially. The consequences of climate change, such as increased repair costs, can be reduced if buildings are designed and built to be adaptive to climate change risks. This research investigates the preparedness of the Australian residential building sector to adapt to such risks, with a view to informing the next review of the National Construction Code (2022), which at present does not include provisions for climate change adaptation. Twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted with construction managers from residential building companies in Brisbane, Queensland to understand their level of preparedness to adapt with climate change risks. Three aspects of preparedness were investigated: participant's awareness of climate change risks, their company's capacity to include climate change information in planning, and actions taken to address climate change risks. Participants were also asked about climate change adaptation policies and what they thought the path towards increased preparedness in the residential construction industry to climate change risks might involve. Qualitative analysis of interview data was undertaken using NVivo software, and illustrative examples and direct quotes from this data are included in the results. The results indicate a low level of preparedness of the residential building industry to adapt with climate risks. Levels of awareness of managing the consequences of climate change risks, analytical capacity, and the actions taken to address climate change were all found to be low. Legislating climate adaptation practices and increasing the adaptation awareness of the residential constructors are some of the recommendations to enhance the preparedness of the residential construction industry in Australia to adapt with climate change risks.
Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems
Groundstroem F and Juhola S
Increased use of bioenergy, driven by ambitious climate and energy policies, has led to an upsurge in international bioenergy trade. Simultaneously, it is evident that every node of the bioenergy supply chain, from cultivation of energy crops to production of electricity and heat, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, climate change assessments of bioenergy supply chains neither account for the global nature of the bioenergy market, nor the complexity and dynamic interconnectivity between and within different sub-systems in which the bioenergy supply chain is embedded, thereby neglecting potential compounding and cascading impacts of climate change. In this paper, systems thinking is utilised to develop an analytical framework to address this gap, and aided by causal loop diagrams, cascading impacts of climate change are identified for a case study concerning imports of wood pellets from the United States to the European Union. The findings illustrate how the complexity and interconnectivity of the wood pellet supply system predispose the supply chain to various cascading climate change impacts stemming from environmental, social, political and economic domains, and highlight the value of using system-based analysis tools for studying such complex and dynamic systems.
Financing needs to achieve Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement in Caribbean Small Island Developing States
Mohan PS
Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Given high mitigation and adaptation costs and constrained domestic finances, they seek international funding to meet their climate objectives. This paper investigates Caribbean SIDS perspectives on the role of international climate finance in addressing climate change and its effectiveness in meeting climate goals. The paper first explored the climate financing needs of sixteen Caribbean SIDS through a content analysis of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It then compares the climate finance needs of the region with international climate finance commitments received by examining climate finance trends using data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Development Assistance Committee's (DAC) Creditor Reporting System (CRS). The study revealed large gaps in estimating the climate finance needs of the region, as well as important patterns in the way climate finance is being distributed across mitigation, adaptation and overlap activity; principal versus significant climate objective; recipient country; sector; and source and type of funding. These findings are useful to help countries make decisions about how international climate finance should be used, and how its impacts should be evaluated and a basis for climate finance negotiations and dialogue with bilateral development partners and multilateral climate funds, and to assess whether available funds are being put to good use and identify problems that need to be addressed.
Transitioning to low-GWP alternatives with enhanced energy efficiency in cooling non-residential buildings of China
Wang X and Purohit P
The electricity demand for space cooling in the non-residential building (NRB) sector of China is growing significantly and is becoming increasingly critical with rapid economic development and mounting impacts of climate change. The growing demand for space cooling will increase global warming due to emissions of hydrofluorocarbons used in cooling equipment and carbon dioxide emissions from the mostly fossil fuel-based electricity currently powering space cooling. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model framework to estimate current and future emissions of hydrofluorocarbons and their abatement potentials for space cooling in the NRB sector of China and assess the co-benefits in the form of savings in electricity and associated reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG), air pollution, and short-lived climate pollutant emissions. Co-benefits of space cooling are assessed by taking into account (a) regional and urban/rural heterogeneities and climatic zones among different provinces; (b) technical/economic energy efficiency improvements of the cooling technologies; and (c) transition towards lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the total energy consumption for space cooling in the NRB sector will increase from 166 TWh in 2015 to 564 TWh in 2050, primarily due to the rapid increase in the floor space area of non-residential buildings. The total GHG mitigation potential due to the transition towards low-GWP refrigerants and technical energy efficiency improvement of cooling technologies will approximately be equal to 10% of the total carbon emissions from the building sector of China in 2050.
Socio-ecological vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities residing in capital-constrained environments
Jha SK, Negi AK, Alatalo JM and Negi RS
The study evaluated perceived reactions and counter-actions of Himalayan communities to climate change. The evaluation was conducted through identification and characterization of 62 socio-environment-specific indicators in three altitude zones (< 1200 m asl (zone A), 1200-1800 m asl (zone B), and > 1800 m asl (zone C)) in Pauri district, Uttarakhand, India, using a bottom-up, indicator-based approach. Indicators with higher significance for the local economy, livelihoods, or conservation were selected and assimilated into dimensions of vulnerability and resilience. Finally, these were integrated into a sustainable livelihood framework in an approach intended to calculate vulnerability and resilience jointly. The results indicated that the vulnerability and resilience of the mountain communities studied varied widely along the altitude gradient, due to variations in socioeconomic profile, livelihood requirements, resource availability, accessibility, and utilization pattern, and climate risk. The overall values for vulnerability (exposure + sensitivity-adaptive capacity) and resilience (exposure + sensitivity-restorative capacity) were, respectively, 0.34 and 0.28 in zone A, 0.54 and 0.37 in zone B, and 0.65 and 0.59 in zone C. There was a significant difference in contribution of indicators to vulnerability and resilience along the altitudinal gradient was recorded. Strategies for dealing with site-specific vulnerability are required and should address bottlenecks in accessibility and availability of food, water, and healthcare; sustainable utilization of forest resources; educational attainment and skill enhancement; and migration. These results extend current knowledge among the research community and policymakers on socio-ecological changes affecting mountain communities. To reduce the policy level gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches, we suggest precautionary and ongoing site-specific traditional practices and modern adaptation practices, leading to effective and efficient handling of local issues in the context of climate change.
Determining our climate policy future: expert opinions about negative emissions and solar radiation management pathways
Sovacool BK, Baum CM and Low S
Negative emissions technologies and solar radiation management techniques could contribute towards climate stability, either by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it permanently or reflecting sunlight away from the atmosphere. Despite concerns about them, such options are increasingly being discussed as crucial complements to traditional climate change mitigation and adaptation. Expectations around negative emissions and solar radiation management and their associated risks and costs shape public and private discussions of how society deals with the climate crisis. In this study, we rely on a large expert survey ( = 74) to critically examine the future potential of both negative emission options (e.g., carbon dioxide removal) and solar radiation management techniques. We designed a survey process that asked a pool of prominent experts questions about (i) the necessity of adopting negative emissions or solar radiation management options, (ii) the desirability of such options when ranked against each other, (iii) estimations of future efficacy in terms of temperature reductions achieved or gigatons of carbon removed, (iv) expectations about future scaling, commercialization, and deployment targets, and (v) potential risks and barriers. Unlike other elicitation processes where experts are more positive or have high expectations about novel options, our results are more critical and cautionary. We find that some options (notably afforestation and reforestation, ecosystem restoration, and soil carbon sequestration) are envisioned frequently as necessary, desirable, feasible, and affordable, with minimal risks and barriers (compared to other options). This contrasts with other options envisaged as unnecessary risky or costly, notably ocean alkalization or fertilization, space-based reflectors, high-altitude sunshades, and albedo management via clouds. Moreover, only the options of afforestation and reforestation and soil carbon sequestration are expected to be widely deployed before 2035, which raise very real concerns about climate and energy policy in the near- to mid-term.
Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil
da Silva FTF, Szklo A, Vinhoza A, Nogueira AC, Lucena AFP, Mendonça AM, Marcolino C, Nunes F, Carvalho FM, Tagomori I, Soares L, da Cruz MR, Rochedo P, Rajão R, Rathmann R, Schaeffer R and de Bittencourt SRM
Technological development is key for national strategies to cope with the Paris Agreement's goals. Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) aim to identify, prioritize, and diffuse climate change mitigation and/or adaptation technologies in developing countries. Their methodology includes a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework but, although many countries already conducted a TNA, literature lacks discussions on country-specific processes for a TNA, as it usually follows a one-size-fits-all approach. This paper provides empirical evidence on the importance of country-driven processes that help shaping international programmes into country-specific needs and capabilities. It presents lessons learned from a tailored process for identification, prioritization, and selection of mitigation technologies in the scope of a TNA project for Brazil, an exceptional case of a developing country with strong capacity in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios for guiding its climate strategies. A previous IAM scenario result allowed pre-selecting technologies in six key economic sectors, while other TNAs prioritized no more than three. This allowed the elaboration of an overall ranking from the MCDA, in contrast to sectoral rankings that are mostly employed in other countries' TNAs. The overall ranking serves not only as a basis for the selection of priority technologies but also provides information on the integrated innovations framework for climate technologies in the country. Further specific findings of the tailored Brazilian TNA approach are discussed in the paper in order to call for the importance that a technology transfer project should not only be country-driven but also conducted through a country-specific process.
Attitudes and opportunities: comparing climate change adaptation intentions and decisions of agricultural producers in Shaanxi, China, and British Columbia, Canada
Mu L, Janmaat J, Taylor J and Arnold L
Climate change poses a major challenge for agricultural producers. There are a variety of adaptation strategies producers can use to enhance their resilience to the changing climate. The theory of planned behavior is applied as a framework to compare the adaptation intentions and choices of producers in Cariboo and Okanagan regions of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, and Baoji and Xi'an city prefectures of Shaanxi (SX) province, China. In BC, producers are more likely to explore the use of new crop varieties, and BC producers also seem to have a stronger intention to invest in irrigation efficiency. In contrast, producers in SX are far more likely to use online marketing methods to connect directly with consumers. Based on transcripts from a set of focus groups, community meetings, and interviews, differences in attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control between SX and BC producers are identified that may contribute to their different adaptation choices. Multiple barriers to adaptation existed in both areas. Limited technical knowledge and doubts about adaptation effectiveness were more serious in BC, while limited support from local government and normative expectations were notable in SX. Education, targeted research, and public investments in irrigation and marketing may contribute to addressing some of these differences, improving the resilience of agricultural climate adaptation in both provinces.
Climate change and coastal resiliency of Suva, Fiji: a holistic approach for measuring climate risk using the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index (CORVI)
Shiiba N, Singh P, Charan D, Raj K, Stuart J, Pratap A and Maekawa M
Coastal cities are under severe threat from the impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, coastal inundation, and ecosystem degradation. It is well known that the ocean, and in particular coastal environments, have been changing at an unprecedented rate, which poses increasing risks to people in small island developing states, such as Fiji. The Greater Suva Urban Area, the capital and largest metropolitan area of Fiji, is expected to be largely impacted by climate-related risks to its socio-economic, cultural, and political positions. In the face of these threats, creating a resilient city that can withstand and adapt to the impacts of climate change and promote sustainable development should be guided by a holistic approach, encompassing stakeholders from the government, the private sector, civil society organizations, and international institutions. This study assesses the risk profile of Suva city using an innovative risk information tool, the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index (CORVI), which applies structured expert judgment to quantify climate-related risks in data-sparse environments. Through comparative quantification of diverse risk factors and narrative analysis, this study identifies three priority areas for Suva's future climate-resilient actions: development of climate risk-informed urban planning, harmonized urban development and natural restoration, and enhancing the climate resilience to the tourism sector.
From assembly to action: how planning language guides execution in indigenous climate adaptation
Cottrell C
Indigenous Peoples of the USA are already feeling the disproportionate impacts of climate change and the challenges created to their resource-based livelihoods from effects like sea level rise, species migration and extinction, and more severe and frequent storms. In response, American Indigenous communities have initiated hundreds of adaptation actions. At the center of the Indigenous climate response are efforts to identify local climate threats and prioritize adaptation actions through careful planning. To better understand their potential, 14 tribal climate adaptation plans were reviewed to decipher different types of proposed adaptation actions and evaluated based on 11 criteria often associated with successful plan implementation. Adaptation actions were dominated by "soft" measures such as capacity building with neighboring jurisdictions, policy reform, and information gathering. The most common criteria present in the tribal plans were identification of a party to implement an action and mainstreaming of climate activities into other documents, such as resource management plans. In-depth interviews with tribal climate specialists found that actual implementation has been slowed by funding shortages, lack of staff expertise, and weak communication and coordination across tribal government departments. Successful implementation has occurred through the mainstreaming of adaptation priorities into other environmental concerns, such as hazard mitigation or emergency preparedness, that benefit from more stable funding. Training staff, developing dedicated funding streams, and the integration of adaptation efforts into all areas of tribal government operations is needed to ensure Indigenous communities can protect vital cultural resources and steward lands under rapidly changing climatic conditions.
Can remittances contribute to financing climate actions in developing countries? Evidence from analyses of households' climate hazard exposure and adaptation actors in SE Nigeria
Maduekwe NI and Adesina FA
Migrant remittances are potentially significant sources of funding for climate change adaptation and resilience building in developing countries. However, very little is understood about the linkages between climate actions and remittances at the household level. It is not clear how remittances can affect households' responses to climate change. This paper presents evidence from analyses of the associations between remittances to households, their climate hazard exposure, and adaptation actors. It uses concurrent data on international remittances receipts, three climate change related hazards (flooding, intense and irregular rainfall), and main adaptation actors (self/family, community, government, and NGOs) from over 600 households in South Eastern Nigeria. The results showed that household incidence of remittances is low (15%) while exposure to climate hazards is higher (flooding: 41.2%, intense rainfall: 47.1%, irregular rainfall: 29.9%). Nominal (contingency coefficient) associations between remittances and household climate hazard exposure and remittances and household adaptation actors were mostly moderate and insignificant. Therefore, households that received remittances and those that did not were not significantly different in terms of their exposure to climate hazard and main actors in climate adaptation. Self/families were the main actors in household climate actions. Governments and NGO actors were less prominent. The results suggest that unregulated remittances have limited impact on household climate hazard exposure and adaptive actions. However, there are indications that the contribution of remittances to financing climate adaptation may be enhanced by addressing issues with cost of remitting and remittee understanding of climate change to increase remittances volumes, incidence, and use.
Climate change and 2030 cooling demand in Ahmedabad, India: opportunities for expansion of renewable energy and cool roofs
Joshi J, Magal A, Limaye VS, Madan P, Jaiswal A, Mavalankar D and Knowlton K
Most of India's current electricity demand is met by combustion of fossil fuels, particularly coal. But the country has embarked on a major expansion of renewable energy and aims for half of its electricity needs to be met by renewable sources by 2030. As climate change-driven temperature increases continue to threaten India's population and drive increased demand for air conditioning, there is a need to estimate the local benefits of policies that increase renewable energy capacity and reduce cooling demand in buildings. We investigate the impacts of climate change-driven temperature increases, along with population and economic growth, on demand for electricity to cool buildings in the Indian city of Ahmedabad between 2018 and 2030. We estimate the share of energy demand met by coal-fired power plants versus renewable energy in 2030, and the cooling energy demand effects of expanded cool roof adaptation in the city. We find renewable energy capacity could increase from meeting 9% of cooling energy demand in 2018 to 45% in 2030. Our modeling indicates a near doubling in total electricity supply and a nearly threefold growth in cooling demand by 2030. Expansion of cool roofs to 20% of total roof area (associated with a 0.21 TWh reduction in cooling demand between 2018 and 2030) could more than offset the city's climate change-driven 2030 increase in cooling demand (0.17 TWh/year). This study establishes a framework for linking climate, land cover, and energy models to help policymakers better prepare for growing cooling energy demand under a changing climate.
Lifestyle decisions and climate mitigation: current action and behavioural intent of youth
Pickering GJ, Schoen K and Botta M
Youth carry the burden of a climate crisis not of their making, yet their accumulative lifestyle decisions will help determine the severity of future climate impacts. We surveyed 17-18 year old's ( = 487) to establish their action stages for nine behaviours that vary in efficacy of greenhouse gas emission (GGE) reduction and the explanatory role of climate change (CC) knowledge, sociodemographic and belief factors. Acceptance of CC and its anthropogenic origins was high. However, the behaviours with the greatest potential for GGE savings () have the lowest uptake. Descriptive normative beliefs predicted intent to adopt all high-impact actions, while environmental locus of control, CC scepticism, knowledge of the relative efficacy of actions, religiosity and age were predictive of action stage for several mitigation behaviours (multinomial logistic regression). These findings inform policy and communication interventions that seek to mobilise youth in the global climate crisis response.
Prioritizing adaptation and mitigation in the climate movement: evidence from a cross-national protest survey of the Global Climate Strike, 2019
de Moor J
Climate adaptation is seen by many as increasingly important and as deeply political, leading some to argue for its democratization. Social movements could play an important role in this. Meanwhile, we have recently witnessed a major swell in climate activism, as well as a growing realization among climate activists that it may be too late to prevent major climate disruptions. Yet to what extent this may lead to a focus on adaptation in the climate movement remains understudied. To address this gap in the literature, the current paper draws on survey data from 2,344 participants in Fridays For Future climate demonstrations in September 2019 in 13 cities in Europe, Australia and the USA. The analyses show that while one-half of the respondents still attributes greater weight to mitigation, the other half attributes equal weight to adaptation and mitigation, indicating a greater emphasis on adaptation than previously assumed. It is found that those supporting (equal focus on) adaptation experience less hope about the effectiveness of climate policies, and portray a reluctance to support far-reaching climate action. The latter indicates that support for adaptation in the climate movement is associated with conservative attitudes, indicating constraints for the emergence of a climate movement for transformational adaptation.
Potential impact of introducing emission mitigation policies in Indonesia: how much will Indonesia have to spend?
Malahayati M and Masui T
Under the Nationally Determined Commitment (NDC), Indonesia voluntarily reduces GHG emission by 29% compared to the BAU level in 2030. While the national economics itself is still growing and advancing, the mitigation policies are expected to slow down the economy at some level. This study is trying to examine the potential impact of the emission mitigation policies on the Indonesian economy by utilizing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE). The simulation result showed that the implementation of comprehensive mitigation technology would cause a GDP loss of around 1.7% by 2030 compared to the BAU level. If we look at the sectoral GDP, the agriculture sector is projected to experiencing the most significant shock by the emission mitigation policies (- 13.4% compared to BAU level by 2030). But the energy sector might become a sector experiencing higher GDP under the mitigation action (3.5% compared to BAU level by 2030). It also showed that the utilization of renewable energies for power generation would increase significantly, especially after 2025, but still cannot fully replace the dominance of fossil fuel sources. There are several policy recommendations based on our simulation results, including that the government also needs to increase efficiency in using fossil fuels, especially coal and gas, during the process of building infrastructure for renewable energy utilization. In terms of employment, the government needs to prepare other sectors to absorb labor, especially from the agricultural sector. Another crucial thing is that considering the possible economic impact, especially in the mid-term period, the government needs to implement necessary mitigation policies immediately. Otherwise, the government may need to prepare more expenditure to introduce more technologies and policies in the future.
The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly
Nascimento L, Kuramochi T and Höhne N
Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCOeq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCOeq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCOeq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCOeq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C.
Heterogeneity in the relationship between carbon emission performance and urbanization: evidence from China
Zhao Z, Yuan T, Shi X and Zhao L
Global change caused by carbon emissions alone has become a common challenge for all countries. However, current debates about urbanization and carbon emissions generally do not take into account the heterogeneities in urbanization and economic development levels. The goal of this study is to revisit the urbanization-emissions nexus by considering such heterogeneities in the Chinese context. The results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in the total factor carbon emission performance index across provinces. Specifically, the relationship between carbon emission performance and urbanization reflects a U-shaped curve. Urbanization is found to have a stronger inhibiting effect on carbon emission performance when economic development levels improve. The results suggest that tailoring policies to each region's conditions, promoting investments in energy-saving and emissions-reducing technologies, and improving the use of public transportation could be mitigation strategies for global change that lead to low-carbon urbanization.
Designing for climate change: twenty-five design features to improve sanitation technology resilience in low- and middle- income countries
Cunningham I, Kohlitz J and Willetts J
Climate change is exacerbating events such as floods and droughts, and trends including sea-level rise, leading to failures in sanitation technologies, increased public health risks and environmental pollution. To reduce these risks, it is crucial to incorporate climate resilience into sanitation technology designs. In this study, we reviewed academic and selected grey literature and identified 25 design features that can contribute to the technology's resilience to an increasingly volatile and extreme climate. Design features that were conceptually similar were collated into seven categories. These categories included: (i) avoid exposure to hazards, (ii) withstand exposure to hazards, (iii) enable flexibility, (iv) contain failures, (v) limit consequences of complete failure, (vi) facilitate fast recovery and (vii) features that provide resilience benefits beyond technological resilience. In this paper we define the categories and design features, and provide examples of each feature in practice. We also outline how the resilience design features can support sanitation designers and implementers to critique the climate resilience of sanitation technology, and prompt more resilient designs of sanitation technology.