Spatial nonstationarity and the role of environmental metal exposures on COVID-19 mortality in New Mexico
Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has been influenced by a combination of environmental and sociodemographic drivers. To date, population studies have overwhelmingly focused on the impact of societal factors. In New Mexico, the rate of COVID-19 infection and mortality varied significantly among the state's geographically dispersed, and racially and ethnically diverse populations who are exposed to unique environmental contaminants related to resource extraction industries (e.g. fracking, mining, oil and gas exploration). By looking at local patterns of COVID-19 disease severity, we sought to uncover the spatially varying factors underlying the pandemic. We further explored the compounding role of potential long-term exposures to various environmental contaminants on COVID-19 mortality prior to widespread applications of vaccinations. To illustrate the spatial heterogeneity of these complex associations, we leveraged multiple modeling approaches to account for spatial non-stationarity in model terms. Multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) results indicate that increased potential exposure to fugitive mine waste is significantly associated with COVID-19 mortality in areas of the state where socioeconomically disadvantaged populations were among the hardest hit in the early months of the pandemic. This relationship is paradoxically reversed in global models, which fail to account for spatial relationships between variables. This work contributes both to environmental health sciences and the growing body of literature exploring the implications of spatial nonstationarity in health research.
COVID-19, Cities and Inequality
COVID-19 has changed our lives and will likely leave a lasting imprint on our cities. This paper reviews how the pandemic has altered the way people commute, work, collaborate, and consume, especially its reflection on urban space and spatial inequality. We conceptualize these urban changes as structural transformation, accelerated transition, and temporal change. First, we have seen more structural transformation far exceeding scholars' earlier predictions, especially remote working and global supply chain restructuring. Second, COVID-19 has accelerated the processes of digitalization and sustainable transition. While COVID-19 has contributed to suburbanization and urban sprawl, it has also raised the significance of green spaces and the environment. Third, COVID-19 reduced human impact on the environment, which might be temporary. Last, the pandemic has also amplified the pre-existing inequalities in urban areas, created a more fragmented and segregated urban landscape, and expanded the scope of urban inequality research by connecting health inequality with environmental and socio-injustice. We further discuss the emergence of post-pandemic urban theories and identify research questions for future research.
Estimating geographic access to healthcare facilities in Sub-Saharan Africa by Degree of Urbanisation
Measuring rates of coverage and spatial access to healthcare services is essential to inform policies for development. These rates tend to reflect the urban-rural divide, typically with urban areas experiencing higher accessibility than rural ones. Especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a region experiencing high disease burden amid fast urbanisation and population growth. However, such assessment has been hindered by a lack of updated and comparable geospatial data on urbanisation and health facilities. In this study, we apply the UN-endorsed Degree of Urbanisation (DoU or DEGURBA) method to investigate how geographic access to healthcare facilities varies across the urban-rural continuum in SSA as a whole and in each country, for circa 2020. Results show that geographic access is overall highest in and , where more than 95% of inhabitants live within 30 min from the nearest HCF, with this share decreasing to 80-90% in . This share is lowest in and (65%), with about 10-15% of population more than 3 h away from any health post. Challenges in geographic access seem mostly determined by high travel impedance, since overall spatial densities of HCF are comparable to European levels.
Gone with the epidemic? The spatial effects of the Covid-19 on global investment network
The outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic has a prolonged impact on global economic activities. In recent years, many scholars have been motivated to estimate the effects of Covid-19 shock on global foreign direct investment (FDI). However, existing studies have not paid enough attention to the spillover effects caused by the epidemic. Although few academic works have explored the geographic-neighboring spillover effects of epidemic shock on global investment, we further extent the understanding of the spillover effects in an economic network. On the basis of country-month greenfield FDI panels, we construct a spatial Durbin model, and figure out that Covid-19 shock may have positive FDI spillover effects in an economic network via global FDI transfers. Furthermore, we find that such spillovers are greatly conditioned by country-level network position and institutional ties among nations. Our research suggests that global FDI transfers may partly offset economic-adverse effects of the Covid-19 shock. While global countries, especially those in the Global South, should be more closely embedded in the global investment network in such an uncertain environment.
Social and spatial heterogeneities in COVID-19 impacts on individual's metro use: A big-data driven causality inference
While mobility intervention policies implemented during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on public transit use, few studies have investigated the individual-level responses in metro transit riding behaviors. Using long time-series cellphone big data from frequent metro users in Shenzhen, China, we developed a quasi-experimental interrupted time series (ITS) design to estimate the treatment effects of mobility intervention policies on people's daily shares of metro transit use (SMU). The results indicate that the first-level emergency response (FLR) and the public transit restriction (PTR) policy yielded abrupt drops in SMU of 8.0% and 17.6%, respectively, whereas the return-to-work (RTW) order had an immediate recovery effect of 14.5%. The effect of the FLR is time-decreasing while those effects of the PTR and the RTW are time-increasing. Females and elderly people living in neighborhoods near the city center with low population density and fewer transit stations are more adaptable to policy interventions for reducing SMUs, while the recovery effect of RTW is relatively low for the elderly living in less mixed-use neighborhoods with reduced transit service. These findings can help policymakers design more socially- and spatially-precise and equity mobility intervention policies during a pandemic.
Exploring non-linear built environment effects on urban vibrancy under COVID-19: The case of Hong Kong
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has enormously changed the way people perceive and use urban spaces, exacerbating some pre-existing issues including urban vibrancy decline. This study aims to explore built environment effects on urban vibrancy under COVID-19, which will help recalibrate planning models and design principles. Based on multi-source geo-tagged big data of Hong Kong, this study reveals variations in urban vibrancy and employs machine learning modeling and interpretation methods to examine built environment effects on urban vibrancy before, during, and after the outbreak of COVID-19, with review volume of restaurants & food retailers as the indicator for urban vibrancy and built environment depicted from five dimensions (i.e., building form, street accessibility, public transport accessibility, functional density, and functional mixture). We found that (1) urban vibrancy concussively decreased during the outbreak and slowly recovered afterwards; (2) built environment's capability to stimulate urban vibrancy was weakened during the outbreak and restored afterwards; (3) the relationships between built environment and urban vibrancy were non-linear and moderated by the pandemic. This research enriches our understandings of the role of the pandemic in influencing urban vibrancy and its correlation with built environment, enlightening decision makers with nuanced criteria for pandemic-adaptive urban planning and design.
Modelling the roles of visitor flows and returning migrants in the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 from Wuhan city in China
COVID-19 has spread to many cities and countries in the world since the major outbreak in Wuhan city in later 2019. Population flow is the main channel of COVID-19 transmission between different cities and countries. This study recognizes that the flows of different population groups such as visitors and migrants returning to hometown are different in nature due to different length of stay and exposure to infection risks, contributing to the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 differently. To model population flows and the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 more accurately, a population group based SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) metapopulation model is developed consisting of 32 regions including Wuhan, the rest of Hubei and other 30 provinces in Mainland China. The paper found that, in terms of the total export, Wuhan residents as visitors and Wuhan migrants returned to hometown were the first and second largest contributors in the simulation period. In terms of the net export, Wuhan migrants returned to hometown were the largest contributor, followed by Wuhan residents as visitors.
Seeing the forest and the trees: Holistic view of social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 in China
The human social and behavioral activities play significant roles in the spread of COVID-19. Social-distancing centered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the best strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19 prior to an effective pharmaceutical or vaccine solution. This study investigates various social-distancing measures' impact on the spread of COVID-19 using advanced global and novel local geospatial techniques. Social distancing measures are acquired through website analysis, document text analysis, and other big data extraction strategies. A spatial panel regression model and a newly proposed geographically weighted panel regression model are applied to investigate the global and local relationships between the spread of COVID-19 and the various social distancing measures. Results from the combined global and local analyses confirm the effectiveness of NPI strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19. While global level strategies allow a nation to implement social distancing measures immediately at the beginning to minimize the impact of the disease, local level strategies fine tune such measures based on different times and places to provide targeted implementation to balance conflicting demands during the pandemic. The local level analysis further suggests that implementing different NPI strategies in different locations might allow us to battle unknown global pandemic more efficiently.
How consumer behaviours changed in response to COVID-19 lockdown stringency measures: A case study of Walmart
Walmart is a major player in the US retail sector and was one of the grocery corporations that bucked the trend of declining retail sales at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Particularly in the initial stages of the pandemic, governance priorities focussed on restricting the movement of people and closing non-essential retailers and service providers to slow the spread of the virus and keep people safe. This paper investigates the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, in the form of lockdown stringency measures, on consumer purchasing behaviours for essential goods over the onset of the pandemic. Focussing on both instore and online sales outcomes for Walmart in the US, we examine changes between pre-pandemic trends in two different sales outcomes, sales transactions and total spend, and trends in 2020. We then employ a series of multi-level regression models to estimate the impact that imposed stringency measures had on these sales outcomes, at both national and state level. Results indicate that nationally consumers were making fewer, larger physical shopping trips and huge increases in online sales was seen ubiquitously across the country. Novel and expansive insights from such a wide-spread retailer, such as Walmart, can help retailers, stakeholders and policy makers understand changing consumption trends to inform business strategies and resilience planning for the future. Furthermore, this study highlighted the value of examining spatial trends in sales outcomes and hopes to influence greater consideration of this in future research.
Segregation and the pandemic: The dynamics of daytime social diversity during COVID-19 in Greater Stockholm
In this study, we set out to understand how the changes in daily mobility of people during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020 influenced daytime spatial segregation. Rather than focusing on spatial separation, we approached this task from the perspective of daytime socio-spatial diversity - the degree to which people from socially different neighbourhoods share urban space during the day. By applying mobile phone data from Greater Stockholm, Sweden, the study examines weekly changes in 1) daytime social diversity across different types of neighbourhoods, and 2) population groups' exposure to diversity in their main daytime activity locations. Our findings show a decline in daytime diversity in neighbourhoods when the pandemic broke out in mid-March 2020. The decrease in diversity was marked in urban centres, and significantly different in neighbourhoods with different socio-economic and ethnic compositions. Moreover, the decrease in people's exposure to diversity in their daytime activity locations was even more profound and long-lasting. In particular, isolation from diversity increased more among residents of high-income majority neighbourhoods than of low-income minority neighbourhoods. We conclude that while some COVID-19-induced changes might have been temporary, the increased flexibility in where people work and live might ultimately reinforce both residential and daytime segregation.
Spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the international trade resilience during COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have created immeasurable health and economic crises, leading to unprecedented disruptions to world trade. The COVID-19 pandemic shows diverse impacts on different economies that suffer and recover at different rates and degrees. This research aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of international trade network vulnerabilities in the current crisis to understand the global production resilience and prepare for the future crisis. We applied a series of complex network analysis approaches to the monthly international trade networks at the world, regional, and country scales for the pre- and post- COVID-19 outbreak period. The spatio-temporal patterns indicate that countries and regions with an effective COVID-19 containment such as East Asia show the strongest resilience, especially Mainland China, followed by high-income countries with fast vaccine roll-out (e.g., U.S.), whereas low-income countries (e.g., Africa) show high vulnerability. Our results encourage a comprehensive strategy to enhance international trade resilience when facing future pandemic threats including effective non-pharmaceutical measures, timely development and rollout of vaccines, strong governance capacity, robust healthcare systems, and equality via international cooperation. The overall findings elicit the hidden global trading disruption, recovery, and growth due to the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Assessing the spatial distribution of and inequality in 15-minute PCR test site accessibility in Beijing and Guangzhou, China
China has been planning to construct SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing sites within a 15-min walk in most major cities to timely identify asymptomatic cases and stop the transmission of COVID-19. However, little is known about the spatial distribution of 15-min accessibility to PCR test sites. In this study, we analyze the spatial distribution of and inequality in 15-min accessibility to PCR test sites in two major Chinese cities (Beijing and Guangzhou) based on the cumulative-opportunity model. The results indicate that the current distribution of 15-min accessibility to PCR test sites is satisfactory when normal commuting is not disrupted. However, disruptions of normal commuting (e.g., due to work-from-home restrictions) can negatively influence 15-min accessibility to PCR test sites and increase its inequality. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date knowledge about the spatial distribution of 15-min accessibility to PCR test sites, identifies the disadvantaged neighborhoods in terms of test site accessibility, and highlights the changes in accessibility and inequality because of travel disruptions.
Daily changes in spatial accessibility to ICU beds and their relationship with the case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 in the state of Texas, USA
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many patients could not receive timely healthcare services due to limited availability and access to healthcare resources and services. Previous studies found that access to intensive care unit (ICU) beds saves lives, but they overlooked the temporal dynamics in the availability of healthcare resources and COVID-19 cases. To fill this gap, our study investigated daily changes in ICU bed accessibility with an enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method in the state of Texas. Along with the increased temporal granularity of measurements, we uncovered two phenomena: 1) aggravated spatial inequality of access during the pandemic, and 2) the retrospective relationship between insufficient ICU bed accessibility and the high case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 in rural areas. Our findings suggest that those locations should be supplemented with additional healthcare resources to save lives in future pandemic scenarios.
Uneven impacts of COVID-19 on residents' utilization of urban parks: A case study of Guangzhou, China
As COVID-19 increased people's dependency on urban parks for physical and psychological well-being, it also has uncertain impacts on park utilization. Understanding these impacts and how the pandemic has contributed to them is an issue that warrants urgent attention. We used multi-source spatio-temporal data to examine urban park use before and during COVID-19 in Guangzhou, China, and constructed a set of regression models to evaluate the associated factors. We found that COVID-19 has significantly reduced the overall utilization of urban parks while also exacerbating spatial unevenness. This was due to residents' limited movement distance, and the diminished role of urban transportation affecting the efficient citywide use of parks. Meanwhile, residents' increased demand for nearby parks amplified the importance of community parks, which exacerbated the consequences caused by the uneven distribution of park resources. We propose that city administrators improve the efficiency of existing parks and prioritize the adequate placement of community parks at urban fringes to improve access. Furthermore, cities with similar layouts as Guangzhou should plan for urban parks from a multi-perspective and consider the sub-city level differences to address unevenness during the current pandemic and in the future.
Associations between COVID-19 risk, multiple environmental exposures, and housing conditions: A study using individual-level GPS-based real-time sensing data
Few studies have used individual-level data to explore the association between COVID-19 risk with multiple environmental exposures and housing conditions. Using individual-level data collected with GPS-tracking smartphones, mobile air-pollutant and noise sensors, an activity-travel diary, and a questionnaire from two typical neighborhoods in a dense and well-developed city (i.e., Hong Kong), this study seeks to examine 1) the associations between multiple environmental exposures (i.e., different types of greenspace, PM, and noise) and housing conditions (i.e., housing types, ownership, and overcrowding) with individuals' COVID-19 risk both in residential neighborhoods and along daily mobility trajectories; 2) which social groups are disadvantaged in COVID-19 risk through the perspective of the neighborhood effect averaging problem (NEAP). Using separate multiple linear regression and logistical regression models, we found a significant negative association between COVID-19 risk with greenspace (i.e., NDVI) both in residential areas and along people's daily mobility trajectories. Meanwhile, we also found that high open space and recreational land exposure and poor housing conditions were positively associated with COVID-19 risk in high-risk neighborhoods, and noise exposure was positively associated with COVID-19 risk in low-risk neighborhoods. Further, people with work places in high-risk areas and poor housing conditions were disadvantaged in COVID-19 risk.
Geographic and demographic variation in worry about extreme heat and COVID-19 risk in summer 2020
Extreme heat is a major health hazard that is exacerbated by ongoing human-caused climate change. However, how populations perceive the risks of heat in the context of other hazards like COVID-19, and how perceptions vary geographically, are not well understood. Here we present spatially explicit estimates of worry among the U.S. public about the risks of heat and COVID-19 during the summer of 2020, using nationally representative survey data and a multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) model. Worry about extreme heat and COVID-19 varies both across states and across demographic groups, in ways that reflect disparities in the impact of each risk. Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino populations, who face greater health impacts from both COVID-19 and extreme heat due to institutional and societal inequalities, also tend to be much more worried about both risks than white, non-Hispanic populations. Worry about heat and COVID-19 were correlated at the individual and population level, and patterns tended to be related to underlying external factors associated with the risk environment. In the face of a changing climate there is an urgent need to address disparities in heat risk and develop responses that ensure the most at-risk populations are protected.
Structural change and spatial pattern of intentional travel groups: A case study of metro riders in Hong Kong
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, face-to-face contacts decreased but still existed despite people's fear of virus infection and governments' social gathering restrictions. These interactions influenced virus transmission routes, if any and reflected people's essential social interactive demands in the city. In this article, we identified people who intentionally travel as groups (ITGs) to characterize social interactions before and amid COVID-19. To systematically understand ITGs' mobility patterns, an ITG structure was defined and measured in multiple dimensions, including composition, function, size, intensity, quality, and spatiotemporal distribution. Based on a longitudinal smartcard dataset in Hong Kong spanning the year of 2020, we operationalized the ITG structure in the local metro system and examined whether and to what degree the structure changed during the pandemic. We found that ITGs' activities fluctuated as the pandemic progressed and their changes differed across different ITG groups. The long-distance ITGs saw the most significant change. The spatial distribution of persistent ITG trips before and amid the pandemic became spatiotemporally more concentrated. Stations with similar ITG indices clustered in proximity, and features of station areas like residents' education level and quantity of commercial facilities could well predict stations' ITG indices. In other words, inequal distribution of essential facilities and opportunities could notably influence ITGs, social contacts, and socioeconomic benefits brought about by them amid COVID-19. The findings provide insights concerning both resilience management amid the crisis and the long-term planning of essential facilities and services that facilitate group-based outgoings and activities.
Commercial dynamics in urban China during the COVID-19 recession: Vulnerability and short-term adaptation of commercial centers in Shanghai
Studying the commercial dynamics during the COVID-19 recession could help deepen our understanding of how the pandemic damages the commercial economy and how to against the pandemic. This study aims to explore the vulnerability and adaptation of commercial centers using a weekly consumption data of UnionPay cards in Shanghai. A vulnerability index and multiscale geographically weighted regressions (MGWR) are employed. Our results suggest that retail, leisure, and entertainment sectors are less vulnerable to the pandemic at the early stage, when catering, life service, and wholesale sectors are more influenced. Catering, life service, and wholesale sectors were better adapted to the second wave of the pandemic, while the retail and entertainment sectors were even more vulnerable. Further analysis using MGWR models suggests that the commercial centers with higher consumption volume are better adapted to the shock. The diversity of commercial sectors mainly reduces low-level commercial centers' vulnerability to the pandemic. The commercial centers targeting high-end consumers with wider hinterland were less adapted to the pandemic. These research outcomes reveal the disparities in commercial centers' vulnerability against COVID-19 and highlight adaptation's role during the pandemic.
Improved air quality leads to enhanced vegetation growth during the COVID-19 lockdown in India
The direct effect of pandemic induced lockdown (LD) on environment is widely explored, but its secondary impacts remain largely unexplored. Therefore, we assess the response of surface greenness and photosynthetic activity to the LD-induced improvement of air quality in India. Our analysis reveals a significant improvement in air quality marked by reduced levels of aerosols (AOD, -19.27%) and Particulate Matter (PM 2.5, -23%) during LD (2020)from pre-LD (March-September months for the period 2017-2019). The vegetation exhibits a positive response, reflected by the increase in surface greenness [Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, +10.4%)] and photosynthetic activity [Solar Induced Fluorescence (SiF, +11%)], during LD from pre-LD that coincides with two major agricultural seasons of India; Zaid (March-May) and Kharif (June-September). In addition, the croplands show a higher response [two-fold in EVI (14.45%) and four-fold in SiF (17.7%)] than that of forests. The prolonged growing period (phenology) and high rate of photosynthesis (intensification) led to the enhanced greening during LD owing to the reduced atmospheric pollution. This study, therefore, provides new insights into the response of vegetation to the improved air quality, which would give ideas to counter the challenges of food security in the context of climate pollution, and combat global warming by more greening.
Promissory shock, broken future: COVID-19 and state-led speculations in biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries in South Korea
This research examines institutional responses to shocking events, in this case, the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. I argue that our analysis should consider state-led nationalism in finance and financialization especially when new modes of financial accumulation can be correlated with state projects of crisis management. Also, in dealing with shocking events, which are an inevitable aspect of capitalism, I claim nationalistic deregulations and speculation stimulated by institutional discourse can put ordinary people into permanently unpayable debt and reshape social exclusion. Drawing from interpretative policy analysis, I examine how early COVID-19 management by the Korean government took advantage of sloganeering of upper-K words, initiated by the Korean Wave, as discursive tools in invoking nationalistic sentiments. The instutional nationalism in the upper-case K as prefix is examined in promoting Korean biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies and their stocks. Further, I demonstrate how the accumulation strategies of this nationalistic COVID-19 management regarding bio and pharma industries were already practiced before COVID-19 in Korea, by the regulatory sandbox policy along with the Korean legitimation crisis. This set of practices has eventually accelerated the financialization of everyday life and Othering. I call for a critical lens to analyze the pressing agenda of discursive practices in institutional crisis responses.
What North American retail food environment indices miss in Guatemala: Cultural considerations for the study of place and health
We evaluated the cross-context validity and equivalence of the US- and Canada-originated Retail Food Environment Index (RFEI) and modified RFEI (mRFEI) against a retail food environment dataset from the indigenous-majority city of Quetzaltenango (Xela), Guatemala. The RFEI/mRFEI failed to identify 77% of retailers and misclassified the healthiness of 42% of the remaining retailers in Xela, inaccurately labeling the city a food swamp. The RFEI/mRFEI are not currently suitable for mapping retail food environments in places like Quetzaltenango. Alternative functional and temporal classifications of retail food environments may provide measures with greater contextual fit, highlighting important cultural considerations for the study of place and dietary health.