JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY

Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America
Recalde-Coronel GC, Zaitchik B, Pan WK, Zhou Y and Badr H
Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.
An EnKF-based method to produce rainfall maps from simulated satellite-to-ground MW-link signal attenuation
Ortolani A, Caparrini F, Melani S, Baldini L and Giannetti F
Measuring rainfall is complex, due to the high temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, especially in a changing climate, but it is of great importance for all the scientific and operational disciplines dealing with rainfall effects on the environment, human activities, and economy. Microwave (MW) telecommunication links carry information on rainfall rates along their path, through signal attenuation caused by raindrops, and can become measurements of opportunity, offering inexpensive chances to augment information without deploying additional infrastructures, at the cost of some smart processing. Processing satellite telecom signals bring some specific complexities related to the effects of rainfall boundaries, melting layer, and non-weather attenuations, but with the potential to provide worldwide precipitation data with high temporal and spatial samplings. These measurements have to be processed according to the probabilistic nature of the information they carry. An EnKF-based (Ensemble Kalman Filter) method has been developed to dynamically retrieve rainfall fields in gridded domains, which manages such probabilistic information and exploits the high sampling rate of measurements. The paper presents the EnKF method with some representative tests from synthetic 3D experiments. Ancillary data are assumed as from worldwide-available operational meteorological satellites and models, for advection, initial and boundary conditions, rain height. The method reproduces rainfall structures and quantities in a correct way, and also manages possible link outages. It results computationally viable also for operational implementation and applicable to different link observation geometries and characteristics.
Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall
Li Z, Wright DB, Zhang SQ, Kirschbaum DB and Hartke SH
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional "grid-by-grid analysis," the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG's accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for "hybrid" data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.
Evaluation of Precipitation Vertical Profiles Estimated by GPM-Era Satellite-Based Passive Microwave Retrievals
Utsumi N, Turk FJ, Haddad ZS, Kirstetter PE and Kim H
Precipitation estimation based on passive microwave (MW) observations from low-Earth-orbiting satellites is one of the essential variables for understanding the global climate. However, almost all validation studies for such precipitation estimation have focused only on the surface precipitation rate. This study investigates the vertical precipitation profiles estimated by two passive MW-based retrieval algorithms, i.e., the emissivity principal components (EPC) algorithm and the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF). The passive MW-based condensed water content profiles estimated from the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GMI) are validated using the GMI + Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar combined algorithm as the reference product. It is shown that the EPC generally underestimates the magnitude of the condensed water content profiles, described by the mean condensed water content, by about 20%-50% in the middle-to-high latitudes, while GPROF overestimates it by about 20%-50% in the middle-to-high latitudes and more than 50% in the tropics. Part of the EPC magnitude biases is associated with the representation of the precipitation type (i.e., convective and stratiform) in the retrieval algorithm. This suggests that a separate technique for precipitation type identification would aid in mitigating these biases. In contrast to the magnitude of the profile, the profile shapes are relatively well represented by these two passive MW-based retrievals. The joint analysis between the estimation performances of the vertical profiles and surface precipitation rate shows that the physically reasonable connections between the surface precipitation rate and the associated vertical profiles are achieved to some extent by the passive MW-based algorithms.
PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared-Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset
Nguyen P, Ombadi M, Gorooh VA, Shearer EJ, Sadeghi M, Sorooshian S, Hsu K, Bolvin D and Ralph MF
This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15-60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm's fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017-18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.
Incorporation of Satellite Precipitation Uncertainty in a Landslide Hazard Nowcasting System
Hartke SH, Wright DB, Kirschbaum DB, Stanley TA and Li Z
Many existing models that predict landslide hazards utilize ground-based sources of precipitation data. In locations where ground-based precipitation observations are limited (i.e., a vast majority of the globe), or for landslide hazard models that assess regional or global domains, satellite multisensor precipitation products offer a promising near-real-time alternative to ground-based data. NASA's global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product to issue hazard "nowcasts" in near-real time for areas that are currently at risk for landsliding. Satellite-based precipitation estimates, however, can contain considerable systematic bias and random error, especially over mountainous terrain and during extreme rainfall events. This study combines a precipitation error modeling framework with a probabilistic adaptation of LHASA. Compared with the routine version of LHASA, this probabilistic version correctly predicts more of the observed landslides in the study region with fewer false alarms by high hazard nowcasts. This study demonstrates that improvements in landslide hazard prediction can be achieved regardless of whether the IMERG error model is trained using abundant ground-based precipitation observations or using far fewer and more scattered observations, suggesting that the approach is viable in data-limited regions. Results emphasize the importance of accounting for both random error and systematic satellite precipitation bias. The approach provides an example of how environmental prediction models can incorporate satellite precipitation uncertainty. Other applications such as flood and drought monitoring and forecasting could likely benefit from consideration of precipitation uncertainty.
On the Propagation of Satellite Precipitation Estimation Errors: From Passive Microwave to Infrared Estimates
Upadhyaya SA, Kirstetter PE, Gourley JJ and Kuligowski RJ
The launch of NOAA's latest generation of geostationary satellites known as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R Series has opened new opportunities in quantifying precipitation rates. Recent efforts have strived to utilize these data to improve space-based precipitation retrievals. The overall objective of the present work is to carry out a detailed error budget analysis of the improved Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval (SCaMPR) algorithm for GOES-R and the passive microwave (MW) combined (MWCOMB) precipitation dataset used to calibrate it with an aim to provide insights regarding strengths and weaknesses of these products. This study systematically analyzes the errors across different climate regions and also as a function of different precipitation types over the conterminous United States. The reference precipitation dataset is Ground-Validation Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS). Overall, MWCOMB reveals smaller errors as compared to SCaMPR. However, the analysis indicated that that the major portion of error in SCaMPR is propagated from the MWCOMB calibration data. The major challenge starts with poor detection from MWCOMB, which propagates in SCaMPR. In particular, MWCOMB misses 90% of cool stratiform precipitation and the overall detection score is around 40%. The ability of the algorithms to quantify precipitation amounts for the Warm Stratiform, Cool Stratiform, and Tropical/Stratiform Mix categories is poor compared to the Convective and Tropical/Convective Mix categories with additional challenges in complex terrain regions. Further analysis showed strong similarities in systematic and random error models with both products. This suggests that the potential of high-resolution GOES-R observations remains underutilized in SCaMPR due to the errors from the calibrator MWCOMB.
GRACE improves seasonal groundwater forecast initialization over the U.S
Getirana A, Rodell M, Kumar S, Beaudoing HK, Arsenault K, Zaitchik B, Save H and Bettadpur S
We evaluate the impact of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data assimilation (GRACE-DA) on seasonal hydrological forecast initialization over the U.S., focusing on groundwater storage. GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates are assimilated into a land surface model for the 2003-2016 period. Three-month hindcast (i.e., forecast of past events) simulations are initialized using states from the reference (no data assimilation) and GRACE-DA runs. Differences between the two initial hydrological condition (IHC) sets are evaluated for two forecast techniques at 305 wells where depth-to-water-table measurements are available. Results show that using GRACE-DA-based IHC improves seasonal groundwater forecast performance in terms of both RMSE and correlation. While most regions show improvement, degradation is common in the High Plains, where withdrawals for irrigation practices affect groundwater variability more strongly than the weather variability, which demonstrates the need for simulating such activities. These findings contribute to recent efforts towards an improved U.S. drought monitor and forecast system.
NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment
Jasinski MF, Borak JS, Kumar SV, Mocko DM, Peters-Lidard CD, Rodell M, Rui H, Beaudoing HK, Vollmer BE, Arsenault KR, Li B, Bolten JD and Tangdamrongsub N
Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125°× 1258° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm yr in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm yr in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from 10.05 to 10.20 W m yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W m yr in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03 K yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days yr while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W m yr, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.
A Prognostic Nested -Nearest Approach for Microwave Precipitation Phase Detection over Snow Cover
Takbiri Z, Ebtehaj A, Foufoula-Georgiou E, Kirstetter PE and Turk FJ
Monitoring changes of precipitation phase from space is important for understanding the mass balance of Earth's cryosphere in a changing climate. This paper examines a Bayesian nearest neighbor approach for prognostic detection of precipitation and its phase using passive microwave observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite. The method uses the weighted Euclidean distance metric to search through an a priori database populated with coincident GPM radiometer and radar observations as well as ancillary snow-cover data. The algorithm performance is evaluated using data from GPM official precipitation products, ground-based radars, and high-fidelity simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Using the presented approach, we demonstrate that the hit probability of terrestrial precipitation detection can reach to 0.80, while the probability of false alarm remains below 0.11. The algorithm demonstrates higher skill in detecting snowfall than rainfall, on average by 10%. In particular, the probability of precipitation detection and its solid phase increases by 11% and 8%, over dry snow cover, when compared to other surface types. The main reason is found to be related to the ability of the algorithm in capturing the signal of increased liquid water content in snowy clouds over radiometrically cold snow-covered surfaces.
A water balance based, spatiotemporal evaluation of terrestrial evapotranspiration products across the contiguous United States
Carter E, Hain C, Anderson M and Steinschneider S
Accurate gridded estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) are essential to the analysis of terrestrial water budgets. In this study, ET estimates from three gridded energy-balance based products (ET) with independent model formations and data forcings are evaluated for their ability to capture long term climatology and inter-annual variability in ET derived from a terrestrial water budget (ET) for 671 gaged basins across the CONUS. All three ET products have low spatial bias and accurately capture inter-annual variability of ET in the central US, where ET and ancillary estimates of change in total surface water storage (ΔTWS) from the GRACE satellite project appear to close terrestrial water budgets. In humid regions, ET products exhibit higher long-term bias, and the covariability of ET and ET decreases significantly. Several factors related to either failure of ET, such as errors in ΔTWS and precipitation, or failure of ET, such as treatment of snowfall and horizontal heat advection, explain some of these discrepancies. These results mirror and build on conclusions from other studies: on inter-annual timescales, ΔTWS and error in precipitation estimates are non-negligible uncertainties in ET estimates based on a terrestrial water budget, and this confounds their comparison to energy balance ET models. However, there is also evidence that in at least some regions, climate and landscape features may also influence the accuracy and long-term bias of ET estimates from energy balance models, and these potential errors should be considered when using these gridded products in hydrologic applications.
Improved Hydrological Simulation Using SMAP Data: Relative Impacts of Model Calibration and Data Assimilation
Koster RD, Liu Q, Mahanama SPP and Reichle RH
The assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture information into a land surface model has been shown in past studies to contribute accuracy to the simulated hydrological variables. Remotely sensed data, however, can also be used to improve the model itself through the calibration of the model's parameters, and this can also increase the accuracy of model products. Here, data provided by the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) satellite mission are applied to the land surface component of the NASA GEOS Earth system model using both data assimilation and model calibration in order to quantify the relative degrees to which each strategy improves the estimation of near-surface soil moisture and streamflow. The two approaches show significant complementarity in their ability to extract useful information from the SMAP data record. Data assimilation reduces the ubRMSE (the RMSE after removing the long-term bias) of soil moisture estimates and improves the timing of streamflow variations, whereas model calibration reduces the model biases in both soil moisture and streamflow. While both approaches lead to an improved timing of simulated soil moisture, these contributions are largely independent; joint use of both approaches provides the highest soil moisture simulation accuracy.
Verification of land-atmosphere coupling in forecast models, reanalyses and land surface models using flux site observations
Dirmeyer PA, Chen L, Wu J, Shin CS, Huang B, Cash BA, Bosilovich MG, Mahanama S, Koster RD, Santanello JA, Ek MB, Balsamo G, Dutra E and Lawrence DM
We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.
Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics
Reichle RH, De Lannoy GJM, Liu Q, Koster RD, Kimball JS, Crow WT, Ardizzone JV, Chakraborty P, Collins DW, Conaty AL, Girotto M, Jones LA, Kolassa J, Lievens H, Lucchesi RA and Smith EB
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with ~2.5day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of ~0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under ~3 K), the soil moisture increments (under ~0.01 m m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under ~1 K). Typical instantaneous values are ~6 K for O-F residuals, ~0.01 (~0.003) m m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and ~0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.
Validation of IMERG precipitation in Africa
Dezfuli AK, Ichoku CM, Huffman GJ, Mohr KI, Selker JS, van de Giesen N, Hochreutener R and Annor FO
Our understanding of hydroclimatic processes in Africa has been hindered by the lack of in-situ precipitation measurements. Satellite-based observations, in particular, the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) have been pivotal to filling this void. The recently-released Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) project aims to continue the legacy of its predecessor, TMPA, and provide higher resolution data. Here, we validate IMERG-V04A precipitation data using in-situ observations from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) project. Various evaluation measures are examined over a select number of stations in West and East Africa. In addition, continent-wide comparisons are made between IMERG and TMPA. The results show that the performance of the satellite-based products varies by season, region and the evaluation statistics. Precipitation diurnal cycle is relatively better captured by IMERG than TMPA. Both products exhibit a better agreement with gauge data in East Africa and humid West Africa than in the Southern Sahel. However, a clear advantage for IMERG is not apparent in detecting the annual cycle. Although all gridded products used here reasonably capture the annual cycle, some differences are evident during the short rains in East Africa. Direct comparison between IMERG and TMPA over the entire continent reveals that the similarity between the two products is also regionally heterogeneous. Except for Zimbabwe and Madagascar, where both satellite-based observations present a good agreement, the two products generally have their largest differences over mountainous regions. IMERG seems to have achieved a reduction in the positive bias evident in TMPA over Lake Victoria.
Satellite Precipitation Characterization, Error Modeling, and Error Correction Using Censored Shifted Gamma Distributions
Wright DB, Kirschbaum DB and Yatheendradas S
Satellite multisensor precipitation products (SMPPs) have a variety of potential uses, but suffer from relatively poor accuracy due to systematic biases and random errors in precipitation occurrence and magnitude. We use the Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) to characterize the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), a commonly-used SMPP, and to compare it against the rain gage-based North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) reference precipitation dataset across the conterminous United States. The CSGD describes both the occurrence and the magnitude of precipitation. Climatological CSGD characterization reveals significant regional differences between TMPA and NLDAS-2 in terms of magnitude and probability of occurrence. We also use a flexible CSGD-based error modeling framework to quantify errors in TMPA relative to NLDAS-2. The framework can model conditional bias as either a linear or nonlinear function of satellite precipitation rate and can produce a "conditional CSGD" of describing the distribution of "true" precipitation based on a satellite observation. The framework is also used to "merge" TMPA with atmospheric variables from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) to reduce SMPP errors. Despite the coarse resolution of MERRA-2, this merging offers robust reductions in random error due to the better performance of numerical models in resolving stratiform precipitation. Improvements in the near-realtime version of TMPA are relatively greater than for the higher-latency research version.
TOTAL AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
Huang H, Winter JM, Osterberg EC, Horton RM and Beckage B
The Northeastern United States has experienced a large increase in precipitation over recent decades. Annual and seasonal changes of total and extreme precipitation from station observations in the Northeast are assessed over multiple time periods spanning 1901-2014. Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast have increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation has experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996-2014 was 53% higher than from 1901-1995. Spatially, coastal areas received more total and extreme precipitation on average, but increases across the changepoints are distributed fairly uniformly across the domain. Increases in annual total precipitation across the 2002 changepoint have been driven by significant total precipitation increases in fall and summer, while increases in annual extreme precipitation across the 1996 changepoint have been driven by significant extreme precipitation increases in fall and spring. The ability of gridded observed and reanalysis precipitation data to reproduce station observations was also evaluated. Gridded observations perform well in reproducing averages and trends of annual and seasonal total precipitation, but extreme precipitation trends show significantly different spatial and domain-averaged trends than station data. North American Regional Reanalysis generally underestimates annual and seasonal total and extreme precipitation means and trends relative to station observations, and also shows substantial differences in the spatial pattern of total and extreme precipitation trends within the Northeast.
The role of low-level terrain-induced jets in rainfall variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters
Dezfuli AK, Zaitchik BF, Badr HS, Evans J and Peters-Lidard CD
Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, we have implemented the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by NCEP/DOE R2, to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle-East. The extended simulation period (1983-2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRF's ability to resolve two low-level terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in NCEP/DOE: one parallel to western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the East Turkish Highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50% of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.
A Data-Driven Approach for Daily Real-Time Estimates and Forecasts of Near-Surface Soil Moisture
Koster RD, Reichle RH and Mahanama SPP
NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides global surface soil moisture retrievals with a revisit time of 2-3 days and a latency of 24 hours. Here, to enhance the utility of the SMAP data, we present an approach for improving real-time soil moisture estimates ("nowcasts") and for forecasting soil moisture several days into the future. The approach, which involves using an estimate of loss processes (evaporation and drainage) and precipitation to evolve the most recent SMAP retrieval forward in time, is evaluated against subsequent SMAP retrievals themselves. The nowcast accuracy over the continental United States (CONUS) is shown to be markedly higher than that achieved with the simple yet common persistence approach. The accuracy of soil moisture forecasts, which rely on precipitation forecasts rather than on precipitation measurements, is reduced relative to nowcast accuracy but is still significantly higher than that obtained through persistence.
Utility of Satellite Remote Sensing for Land-Atmosphere Coupling and Drought Metrics
Roundy JK and Santanello JA
Feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere can play an important role in the water cycle and a number of studies have quantified Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions and feedbacks through observations and prediction models. Due to the complex nature of L-A interactions, the observed variables are not always available at the needed temporal and spatial scales. This work derives the Coupling Drought Index (CDI) solely from satellite data and evaluates the input variables and the resultant CDI against in-situ data and reanalysis products. NASA's AQUA satellite and retrievals of soil moisture and lower tropospheric temperature and humidity properties are used as input. Overall, the AQUA-based CDI and its inputs perform well at a point, spatially, and in time (trends) compared to in-situ and reanalysis products. In addition, this work represents the first time that in-situ observations were utilized for the coupling classification and CDI. The combination of in-situ and satellite remote sensing CDI is unique and provides an observational tool for evaluating models at local and large scales. Overall, results indicate that there is sufficient information in the signal from simultaneous measurements of the land and atmosphere from satellite remote sensing to provide useful information for applications of drought monitoring and coupling metrics.
Performance of IMERG as a Function of Spatiotemporal Scale
Tan J, Petersen WA, Kirstetter PE and Tian Y
The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), a global high-resolution gridded precipitation data set, will enable a wide range of applications, ranging from studies on precipitation characteristics to applications in hydrology to evaluation of weather and climate models. These applications focus on different spatial and temporal scale and thus average the precipitation estimates to coarser resolutions. Such a modification of scale will impact the reliability of IMERG. In this study, the performance of the Final run of MERG is evaluated against ground-based measurements as a function of increasing spatial resolution (from 0.1° to 2.5 ) and accumulation periods (from 0.5 h to 24 h) over a region in the southeastern US. For ground reference, a product derived from the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor suite, a radar- and gauge-based operational precipitation dataset, is used. The TRMM Multi satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is also included as a benchmark. In general, both IMERG and TMPA improve when scaled up to larger areas and longer time periods, with better identification of rain occurrences and consistent improvements in systematic and random errors of rain rates. Between the two satellite estimates, IMERG is slightly better than TMPA most of the time. These results will inform users on the reliability of IMERG over the scales relevant to their studies.