Multi-Criteria Performance Analysis Based on Physics of Decision - Application to COVID-19 and Future Pandemics
The purpose of this study is to present a novel perspective on decision support based on the conventional SEIR pandemic model paradigm considering the risks and opportunities as physical forces deviating the expected performance trajectory of a system. The impact of a pandemic is measured by the deviation of the social system's performance trajectory within the geometrical framework of its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). According to the overall premise of utilizing Ordinary Differential Equations to simulate epidemics, the deviations are connected to several alternative interventions. The model is essentially built on two sets of parameters: (i) social system parameters and (ii) pandemic parameters. The ultimate objective is to propose a multi-criteria performance framework to control pandemics that includes a combination of timely measures. On the one hand, the current study optimizes prospective strategies to manage the potential future pandemic, while on the other hand, it explores the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Georgia (USA).
A Generic Deep Learning Based Cough Analysis System From Clinically Validated Samples for Point-of-Need Covid-19 Test and Severity Levels
In an attempt to reduce the infection rate of the COrona VIrus Disease-19 (Covid-19) countries around the world have echoed the exigency for an economical, accessible, point-of-need diagnostic test to identify Covid-19 carriers so that they (individuals who test positive) can be advised to self isolate rather than the entire community. Availability of a quick turn-around time diagnostic test would essentially mean that life, in general, can return to normality-at-large. In this regards, studies concurrent in time with ours have investigated different respiratory sounds, including cough, to recognise potential Covid-19 carriers. However, these studies lack clinical control and rely on Internet users confirming their test results in a web questionnaire (crowdsourcing) thus rendering their analysis inadequate. We seek to evaluate the detection performance of a primary screening tool of Covid-19 solely based on the cough sound from ( Covid-19 positive and Covid-19 negative) under quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) from certified laboratories. All collected samples were clinically labelled, i.e., Covid-19 positive or negative, according to the results in addition to the disease severity based on the qRT-PCR threshold cycle (Ct) and lymphocytes count from the patients. Our proposed generic method is an algorithm based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) for cough sound detection with subsequent classification based on a tensor of audio sonographs and deep artificial neural network classifier with convolutional layers called . Two different versions of DeepCough based on the number of tensor dimensions, i.e., DeepCough2D and DeepCough3D, have been investigated. These methods have been deployed in a multi-platform prototype web-app . Covid-19 recognition results rates achieved a promising AUC (Area Under Curve) of [Formula: see text] , sensitivity of [Formula: see text] , and specificity of [Formula: see text] and average AUC of [Formula: see text] for the recognition of three severity levels. Our proposed web tool as a point-of-need primary diagnostic test for Covid-19 facilitates the rapid detection of the infection. We believe it has the potential to significantly hamper the Covid-19 pandemic across the world.
A Framework for Dynamic Composition and Management of Emergency Response Processes
An emergency response process outlines the workflow of different activities that need to be performed in response to an emergency. Effective emergency response requires communication and coordination with the operational systems belonging to different collaborating organizations. Therefore, it is necessary to establish information sharing and system-level interoperability among the diverse operational systems. Unlike typical e-government processes that are well structured and have a well-defined outcome, emergency response processes are knowledge-centric and their workflow structure and execution may evolve as the incident unfolds. It is impractical to define static plans and response process workflows for every possible situation. Instead, a dynamic response should be adaptable to the changing situation. We present an integrated approach that facilitates the dynamic composition of an executable response process. The proposed approach employs ontology-based reasoning to determine the default actions and resource requirements for the given incident and to identify relevant response organizations based on their jurisdictional and mutual aid agreement rules. The Web service APIs of the identified response organizations are then used to generate an executable response process that evolves dynamically. The proposed approach is implemented and experimentally validated using an example scenario derived from the FEMA Hazardous Materials Tabletop Exercises Manual.
Collaborative Business Process Fault Resolution in the Services Cloud
The emergence of cloud and edge computing has enabled rapid development and deployment of Internet-centric distributed applications. There are many platforms and tools that can facilitate users to develop distributed business process (BP) applications by composing relevant service components in a plug and play manner. However, there is no guarantee that a BP application developed in this way is fault-free. In this paper, we formalize the problem of collaborative BP fault resolution which aims to utilize information from existing fault-free BPs that use similar services to resolve faults in a user developed BP. We present an approach based on association analysis of pairwise transformations between a faulty BP and existing BPs to identify the smallest possible set of transformations to resolve the fault(s) in the user developed BP. An extensive experimental evaluation over both synthetically generated faulty BPs and real BPs developed by users shows the effectiveness of our approach.