Four great Asian trade collapses
This paper introduces a new dataset of commodity-specific, bilateral import data for four large Asian economies in the interwar period: China, the Dutch East Indies, India and Japan. It uses these data to describe the interwar trade collapses in the economies concerned. These resembled the post-2008 Great Trade Collapse in some respects but not in others: they occurred along the intensive margin, imports of cars were particularly badly affected, and imports of durable goods fell by more than those of non-durables, except in China and India which were rapidly industrialising. On the other hand the import declines were geographically imbalanced, while prices were more important than quantities in driving the overall collapse.
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Jan de Vries engages with Osamu Saito's discussion of Tokugawa Japan, in particular, his exploration of de Vries's concept of an industrious revolution for East Asia, which was published in this journal in 2010. The discussion bears on the ongoing debate over the timing and character of the Great Divergence, when advanced parts of Europe pulled ahead of Asia. de Vries argues that the constraint on the Japanese rural household to acquire and shed labour delayed the shift from supply-side industriousness to demand-motivated industriousness, which in turn meant that the Great Divergence was already in place before 1800.