Epidemic Spread on One-Way Circular-Coupled Networks
Real epidemic spreading networks are often composed of several kinds of complex networks interconnected with each other, such as Lyme disease, and the interrelated networks may have different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human infectious diseases are derived from animals, and zoonotic infections always spread on directed interconnected networks. So, in this article, we consider the epidemic dynamics of zoonotic infections on a unidirectional circular-coupled network. Here, we construct two unidirectional three-layer circular interactive networks, one model has direct contact between interactive networks, the other model describes diseases transmitted through vectors between interactive networks, which are established by introducing the heterogeneous mean-field approach method. Then we obtain the basic reproduction numbers and stability of equilibria of the two models. Through mathematical analysis and numerical simulations, it is found that basic reproduction numbers of the models depend on the infection rates, infection periods, average degrees, and degree ratios. Numerical simulations illustrate and expand these theoretical results very well.
Analysis of the Genomic Distance Between Bat Coronavirus RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Origins of COVID-19
The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 was discovered on December 31, 2019 in China. Subsequently, many COVID-19 cases were reported in many other countries. However, some positive COVID-19 samples had been reported earlier than those officially accepted by health authorities in other countries, such as France and Italy. Thus, it is of great importance to determine the place where SARS-CoV-2 was first transmitted to human. To this end, we analyze genomes of SARS-CoV-2 using k-mer natural vector method and compare the similarities of global SARS-CoV-2 genomes by a new natural metric. Because it is commonly accepted that SARS-CoV-2 is originated from bat coronavirus RaTG13, we only need to determine which SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence has the closest distance to bat coronavirus RaTG13 under our natural metric. From our analysis, SARS-CoV-2 most likely has already existed in other countries such as France, India, Netherland, England and United States before the outbreak at Wuhan, China.
A Diffusive Sveir Epidemic Model with Time Delay and General Incidence
In this paper, we consider a delayed diffusive SVEIR model with general incidence. We first establish the threshold dynamics of this model. Using a Nonstandard Finite Difference (NSFD) scheme, we then give the discretization of the continuous model. Applying Lyapunov functions, global stability of the equilibria are established. Numerical simulations are presented to validate the obtained results. The prolonged time delay can lead to the elimination of the infectiousness.
Traveling Waves in a SIRH Model with Spatio-Temporal Delay and Nonlocal Dispersal
This paper deals mainly with the existence and asymptotic behavior of traveling waves in a SIRH model with spatio-temporal delay and nonlocal dispersal based on Schauder's fixed-point theorem and analysis techniques, which generalize the results of nonlocal SIRH models without relapse and delay. In particular, the difficulty of obtaining the asymptotic behavior of traveling waves for the appearance of spatio-temporal delay is overcome by the use of integral techniques and analysis techniques. Finally, the more general nonexistence result of traveling waves is also included.
Probing a Stochastic Epidemic Hepatitis C Virus Model with a Chronically Infected Treated Population
The hepatitis C virus is hitherto a tremendous threat to human beings, but many researchers have analyzed mathematical models for hepatitis C virus transmission dynamics only in the deterministic case. Stochasticity plays an immense role in pathology and epidemiology. Hence, the main theme of this article is to investigate a stochastic epidemic hepatitis C virus model with five states of epidemiological classification: susceptible, acutely infected, chronically infected, recovered or removed and chronically infected, and treated. The stochastic hepatitis C virus model in epidemiology is established based on the environmental influence on individuals, is manifested by stochastic perturbations, and is proportional to each state. We assert that the stochastic HCV model has a unique global positive solution and attains sufficient conditions for the extinction of the hepatotropic RNA virus. Furthermore, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we obtain sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution of the solutions to the stochastic HCV model. Moreover, this article confirms that using numerical simulations, the six parameters of the stochastic HCV model can have a high impact over the disease transmission dynamics, specifically the disease transmission rate, the rate of chronically infected population, the rate of progression to chronic infection, the treatment failure rate of chronically infected population, the recovery rate from chronic infection and the treatment rate of the chronically infected population. Eventually, numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of our theoretical conclusions.
Utility basis of consumption and investment decisions in a risk environment
Using expectations regarding utilities to make decisions in a risk environment hides a paradox, which is called the expected utility enigma. Moreover, the mystery has not been solved yet; an imagined utility function on the risk-return plane has been applied to establish the mean-variance model, but this hypothetical utility function not only lacks foundation, it also holds an internal contradiction. This paper studies these basic problems. Through risk preference VNM condition is proposed to solve the expected utility enigma. How can a utility function satisfy the VNM condition? This is a basic problem that is hard to deal with. Fortunately, it is found in this paper that the VNM utility function can have some concrete forms when individuals have constant relative risk aversion. Furthermore, in order to explore the basis of mean-variance utility, an MV function is founded that is based on the VNM utility function and rooted in underlying investment activities. It is shown that the MV function is just the investor's utility function on the risk-return plane and that it has normal properties. Finally, the MV function is used to analyze the laws of investment activities in a systematic risk environment. In doing so, a tool, TRR, is used to measure risk aversion tendencies and to weigh risk and return.