Longitudinal and Life Course Studies

Mediation of risk factors for high blood pressure in four racial and ethnic populations
Zamora-Kapoor A, Hebert L, Mellacheruvu P, Buchwald D and Sinclair K
This study evaluated the extent to which body mass index (BMI) mediates associations between risk factors and incident high blood pressure in American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs), Non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs), Non-Hispanic Blacks (NHBs) and Hispanics. There were 7,793 participants from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health: 312 AI/ANs, 1,091 Hispanics, 1,567 NHBs and 4,823 NHWs. Risk factors for high blood pressure included adolescent BMI, TV watching, fast-food consumption, smoking, parental obesity, parental educational attainment and financial instability. Relative risk regression models stratified by race/ethnicity were used to examine associations between risk factors and incident high blood pressure. Path analysis was used to assess mediation by BMI. Female sex was a protective factor against high blood pressure, and higher BMI was a risk factor in all populations. Smoking increased high blood pressure risk in AI/ANs (Incident Rate Ratio [IRR]: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02-1.27), but not in other groups. BMI partially mediated the effect of parental obesity on high blood pressure in NHWs and completely mediated the effect of parental obesity in NHBs. In AI/ANs and Hispanics, BMI did not mediate the relationship between incident high blood pressure and any risk factor. This study assessed the extent to which BMI mediates risk factors for high blood pressure in four populations, and showed important differences across populations. Further research is needed to improve knowledge about relationships between BMI, risk factors and incident high blood pressure, and their potential variability by race/ethnicity.
Creating our legacy
Robertson T
Socio-economic gradients in pupils' self-efficacy: evidence, evolution and main drivers during the primary school years in France
Bonomi Bezzo F, Panico L and Solaz A
Socio-emotional skills, vital for navigating life's challenges, significantly influence educational success and well-being. Thus, socio-economic disparities in these skills may contribute to broader inequalities in achievement. Despite their importance, research in certain contexts, like France, remains limited. Self-efficacy, a cornerstone of socio-emotional well-being, develops early and it is influenced by familial and contextual factors. The primary school years are central for self-efficacy development. During this period, socio-economic gaps in self-efficacy may emerge, influenced by family environments and experiences at school. Using data from the 2011 Panel of Pupils we find that French pupils have similar academic self-efficacy whatever their socio-economic background at the start of primary school. However, at the end of primary school, children coming from more disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds exhibit lower academic self-efficacy as compared to more advantaged peers, and this socio-economic gap is particularly strong among girls. The findings of this work underscore the need for educational policies to focus on socio-emotional skills development alongside cognitive skills from an early age to reduce socio-economic inequalities.
SHARE Corona Surveys: study profile
Bergmann M, Wagner M, Yilmaz Y, Axt K, Kronschnabl J, Pettinicchi Y, Schmidutz D, Schuller K, Stuck S and Börsch-Supan A
At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) was in a unique position to respond to the need for high quality survey data on people's changing living situations. Implemented as two telephone interviews in the summer of 2020 and 2021 in 27 European countries and Israel, the SHARE Corona Surveys present a great advantage by their integration into the longitudinal, multidisciplinary and ex-ante harmonised design of the SHARE study. This allows researchers to trace changes from the pre-pandemic period, through the different stages of the pandemic, and the post-pandemic situation. This article lays out the research aims and how the two Corona Surveys fit in the general design of SHARE. It presents the main design features of the SHARE Corona Surveys following the survey life cycle. It starts with information on procurement, contracting, funding, ethics, and data protection and sampling, followed by information on instrument design, translations, questionnaire content and interviewer training. Last, fieldwork, panel care and data processing are described. Focused on topics of health behaviour, health care, economics and social relationships, the balanced panel sample of the two SHARE Corona Surveys comprises more than 48,000 interviews and provides valuable information on how the 50+ population coped with the COVID-19 pandemic. The experience of implementing the SHARE Corona Surveys also offers insights into use of agile project management methods for large survey infrastructures and moving towards a multi-mode design in an ongoing panel data collection project.
Normalising sequence lengths using the relative duration of episodes: an application to doctoral trajectories in Germany
Brandt G and de Vogel S
To address significant variation of sequence lengths of doctoral trajectories, we propose sequence normalisation using the relative duration of episodes. We employ episode data from a panel study of doctorate holders in Germany where doctoral trajectories are measured in single months and differ in length up to several years. Utilising normalised sequences instead of absolute sequences, we are better able to identify typical trajectories. The graphical presentation of the cluster solutions more accurately depicts the underlying processes. Furthermore, it offers the possibility to define reference sequences without a fixed length. Normalising sequences instead of distances thus proves an easily implementable method to compare sequences of different lengths when the identification of patterns is a priority.
Like mama always said: family socio-economic status, maternal attitudes and leader role occupancy in adulthood
Reitan T and Stenberg SÅ
Leadership research has always recognised the importance of childhood factors for the occupation of formal or informal leader positions later in life. Still, empirical research in the field has mainly been based on retrospective accounts from selective and small samples. Such research has also concentrated on individual traits and experiences, less on characteristics of the family. Our aim is to fill this void by prospectively examining the role of the family of origin on educational attainment and holding a managerial position in adulthood. Analyses were based on the Stockholm Multigenerational Study, including register and survey data, regarding 3,088 males born between 1950 and 1976 and their mothers' attitudes to education and child-rearing in the late 1960s. Our results showed a significant effect of family socio-economic status (SES) on managerial role occupancy in late adulthood. This effect was mainly mediated through educational level. However, a noteworthy share of the total effect of family SES was channelled through maternal attitudes towards education. Positive attitudes towards education in the home environment accounted for an equally large share of the total indirect effect of family SES as the offspring's cognitive capacity did. Authoritarian attitudes to child-rearing among mothers were also found to have a negative impact on cognitive capacity and educational level - two well-known antecedents to leader emergence. Parental attitudes may boost or modify structural characteristics and individual traits associated with holding formal leader roles such as a managerial position - but also showed an independent effect several decades later.
Life is anything but static
Robertson T
Linked lives: intergenerational transmission of labour-market pathways between parent dyads and children
Brydsten A and Kalucza S
While a vast number of studies confirm the transmission of labour-market disadvantages from one generation to the next, less is known about how parents' interconnected labour-market pathways co-evolve and shape the opportunities and obstacles for their children's future careers. This study uses a multidimensional view of intergenerational transmission by describing the most typical pathways of parents' occupational careers and assesses how these patterns are associated with their children's labour-market outcomes. Drawing on Swedish longitudinal register data, we used multichannel sequence analysis to follow a cohort of people born in 1985 (n = 72,409) and their parents across 26 years. We identified four parental earning models, differentiating between (1) dual earners with high wages, (2) dual earners with low-wage, (3) one-and-a-half-earners and (4) mother as the main breadwinner. Regression analysis shows strong intergenerational transmission among the most advantageous trajectories, with education as a key determinant for young people to become less dependent on family resources. This study stresses the importance of intra-couple perspectives in life course research to understand how inequalities are shaped and preserved across generations.
Early school leaving in Spain: a longitudinal analysis by gender
Martín-González M, González-Betancor SM and Pérez-Esparrells C
Spain is one of the eight EU-27 countries that failed to reduce early school leaving (ESL) below 10% in 2020, and now faces the challenge of achieving a rate below 9% by 2030. The determinants of this phenomenon are usually studied using cross-sectional data at the micro level and without differentiation by gender. In this study, we analyse it for the first time for Spain using panel data (between 2002 and 2020), taking into account the high regional inequalities at the macroeconomic level and the masculinisation of the phenomenon. The results show a positive relationship between ESL and socio-economic variables such as the adolescent fertility rate, immigration, unemployment or the weight of the industrial and construction sectors in the regional economy, with significant gender differences that invite us to discuss educational policies. Surprisingly, youth unemployment has only small but significant impact on female ESL.
Revisiting longitudinal qualitative studies in social work: considerations for design and methodological insights
de-Toro X, Rubilar G and Saracostti M
This paper undertakes an analysis and discussion of the methodological challenges and insights derived from three longitudinal qualitative studies, all conducted in Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic and subject to comprehensive theoretical-methodological reflection processes centred on their respective designs. This analysis makes a significant contribution to interdisciplinary discussions within social research, with a particular emphasis on longitudinal trajectories. First, we present a comparative analysis of three studies in social work, utilising Saldaña's questions addressing changes and learning in longitudinal studies. The first study explores the labour trajectories of researchers, the second focuses on the educational trajectories of students, and the last examines therapeutic alliance trajectories between social workers and families within the child protection system. Following this, we delve into the methodological decisions made by the research group during the execution of these longitudinal studies. This encompasses an examination of participant involvement, temporal definitions of the adopted designs, and the most suitable methodological tools for analysing change processes over time. The outcomes of this comparative analysis reveal the distinctive characteristics of the three longitudinal studies, providing insights into how the time dimension is explored within them. We highlight key criteria essential for consideration in longitudinal qualitative research, particularly regarding participants and methodology. In conclusion, we advocate for an expanded reflection within the realm of longitudinal qualitative methodology, encompassing aspects such as design choices, approaches to data analysis, integration of technology in information processing, and strategies for maintaining participant engagement.
Can life events predict first-time suicide attempts? A nationwide longitudinal study
Christoffersen MN and Khan L
The prevention paradox describes circumstances in which the majority of cases with a suicide attempt come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a 'high-risk' group. The assumption is that a low base rate in combination with multiple causes makes it impossible to identify a high-risk group with all suicide attempts. The best way to study events such as first-time suicide attempts and their causes is to collect event history data. Administrative registers were used to identify a group at higher risk of suicidal behaviour within a population of six national birth cohorts (N = 300,000) born between 1980 and 1985 and followed from age 15 to 29 years. Estimation of risk parameters is based on the discrete-time logistic odds-ratio model. Lifetime prevalence was 4.5% for first-time suicide attempts. Family background and family child-rearing factors were predicative of later first-time suicide attempts. A young person's diagnosis with psychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD, anxiety, depression, PTSD), and being a victim of violence or sex offences contributed to the explanatory model. Contrary to the prevention paradox, results suggest that it is possible to identify a discrete high-risk group (<12%) among the population from whom two thirds of all first-time suicide attempts occur, but one third of observed suicide attempts derived from low- to moderate-risk groups. Findings confirm the need for a combined strategy of universal, targeted and indicated prevention approaches in policy development and in strategic and practice responses, and some promising prevention strategies are presented.
Socio-economic differences in remote schoolwork during the COVID-19 pandemic: a trend analysis of the 2020 and 2021 school-closure periods using the UK Understanding Society data
Pensiero N, Kelly A and Bokhove C
In the United Kingdom, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 led to two extended periods of school closures. Research on inequality of learning opportunity as a result of these closures used a single indicator of socio-economic status, neglecting important determinants of remote learning. Using data from the Understanding Society (USoc) COVID-19 surveys we analysed the levels and differentials in the uptake of remote schoolwork using parental social class, information technology (IT) availability in the home and parental working patterns to capture the distinct resources that families needed to complete remote schoolwork. This is also the first study to assess the extent to which the differentials between socio-economic groups changed between the first and second school-closure periods caused by the pandemic. We found that each of the three factors showed an independent association with the volume of remote schoolwork and that their effect was magnified by their combination. Children in families where the main parent was in an upper-class occupation, where both parents worked from home and where the children had their own IT spent more time doing remote schoolwork than other groups, particularly compared to children of single parents who work from home, children in families where the main parent was in a working-class occupation, where the child had to share IT, and where the parents did not work regularly from home. The differentials between socio-economic groups in the uptake of schoolwork were found to be stable between the two school-closure periods.
The trend of the quality of cause-of-death data and its association with socio-economic indicators in Serbia in the period 2005-19
Andjelković Apostolović M, Stojanović M, Bogdanović D, Apostolović B, Milošević Z and Ignjatović A
This study aims to evaluate the temporal trend in the quality of cause-of-death data and garbage code profiles and to determine its association with socio-economic status in Serbia. A longitudinal study was assessed using data from mortality registers from 2005 to 2019. Computer application Analysis of Causes of National Deaths for Action (ANACONDA) calculates the distribution of garbage codes by severity and composite quality indicator: Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)). A relationship between VSPI(Q) and country development was estimated by analysing two socio-economic indicators: the Socio-demographic Index and the Human Development Index (HDI). Serbia indicates progress in strengthening cause-of-death statistics. The steady upward trend of the VSPI(Q) index has risen from 55.6 (medium quality) to 70.2 (high quality) over the examined years. Significant reduction of 'Insufficiently specified causes with limited impact' (Level 4) and an increase in the trend of 'High-impact garbage codes' (Levels 1 to 3) were evident. Decreased deaths of no policy value (annual percentage change of -1.41%) have manifested since 2014. A strong positive association between VSPI(Q) and socio-economic indicators was assessed, where the HDI has shown a stronger association with VSPI(Q). Improved socio-economic conditions on the national level are followed by enhanced cause-of-death data quality. Upcoming actions to improve quality should be directed at high-impact garbage codes. The study underlines the need to prioritise the education and training of physicians with a crucial role in death certification to overcome many cause-of-death quality issues identified in this assessment.
Studying social change in human lives: a conversation
Settersten RA, Dannefer D, Elder GH, Mortimer JT and Kelley JA
This commentary reinforces a central commitment of life course research: to make visible how social change matters in human lives. This paper captures a moderated conversation with four senior scholars about how they came to study the intersection between social change and life experience, why this intersection is so important to life course studies, and theoretical and methodological imperatives and challenges that come with it.
What future are we creating?
Robertson T
The SLLS in uncertain times: an opportunity to develop an impactful and responsive society. A reply to 'Studying social change in human lives: a conversation' by Richard Settersten et al
Spini D and Morton S
The 'lifeworld' of health and disease and the design of public health interventions
Russo F and Kelly MP
The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are still working through health systems worldwide, and further reflections about the nature of health and disease, and about how to design and implement effective public health interventions are much needed. For numerous diseases and conditions, as well as for COVID-19, our knowledge base is rich. We know a lot about the biology of the disease, and we have plenty of statistics that relate health to socio-economic factors. In this paper, we argue that we need to add a third dimension to this knowledge base, namely a thorough description of the lifeworld of health and disease, in terms of the mixed biosocial mechanisms that operate in it. We present the concepts of lifeworld and of mixed mechanisms, and then illustrate how they can be operationalised and measured through mixed methodologies that combine qualitative and quantitative approaches. Finally, we explain the complementarity of our approach with the biological and statistical dimensions of health and disease for the design of public health interventions.
Age at arrival and integration outcomes of refugee youth and emerging adults: a longitudinal study
Wong CY and Edwards B
Age at arrival is one factor that could influence the integration of humanitarian migrants, especially for children and teenagers. Previous research has focused on the influence of the age at arrival on education, employment, social and language learning outcomes, but there is limited research, especially for longitudinal study, on other important measures of integration. Moreover, young adult and adolescent refugees, and the relationship between age and integration outcomes are under-studied. To address these gaps, this study examined the relationships between age at arrival and different dimensions of integration of young refugees in Australia, using five years' panel data from the Building a New Life in Australia (BNLA) longitudinal study from 2013 to 2018 (282 individuals). Our findings indicate that age at arrival is significantly correlated with multiple integration outcomes. Old entrants tend to have a higher probability of having a paid job but have poorer mental health and English proficiency. On the other hand, older entrants were more likely to know their rights well compared to younger entrants at arrival. However, younger entrants' knowledge of their rights overtook older entrants four to five years after their arrival. These findings suggest that a shorter assessment process and enabling earlier entry especially among refugee youth and young adults could effectively improve their future settlement outcomes under the current humanitarian policies and system.
Explaining disparities in cognitive functioning: a test of competing hypotheses
Liew HP
This study seeks to examine how the trajectories of total cognition scores exhibited by two birth cohorts vary by race/ethnicity, gender and the level of education. The empirical work of this study is be based on the 1998-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the HRS Cross-Wave Tracker file. The analysis is limited to individuals with available information on cognitive functioning, sex, race/ethnicity, wave, highest level of education, and the physical comorbidities associated with cognitive functioning (20,985 from the Traditionalist cohort and 11,077 from the Baby Boomer cohort). Growth curve modelling is used to assess the aims of this study. Findings reveal that the cumulative advantage (disadvantage), persistent inequality and age-as-leveller hypotheses explain heterogeneity in total cognition scores for different race/ethnicity-sex groups, race/ethnicity-education and education-sex groups. These findings suggest that the development of an integrated treatment and screening mechanisms for physical comorbidities and cognitive functioning, and for the design of preventive strategies with the purpose of slowing or avoiding cognitive decline and maintaining healthy cognitive function should have a particular focus on females, racial ethnic minorities and those with low education.
Education, health indicators and fertility outcomes: a longitudinal analysis of couples in Britain
Peri-Rotem N
Previous studies have shown that highly educated women are more likely to realise their fertility aspirations, or experience a faster progression to a higher order birth, compared to lower educated women. This is often explained by improved economic or social resources among the higher educated. However, it is unclear whether educational differences in health behaviours may also contribute to these differential fertility outcomes. In this study, we use data from Waves 1-7 of the UK Longitudinal Household Study, combined with data from the Nurse Health Assessment from Wave 2 to estimate couples' likelihood of experiencing additional childbirth within six years. A discrete-time event history model is employed to analyse the transition to a higher order birth, while accounting for both partners' level of education as well as smoking patterns and body mass index. We find that couples in which the female partner is highly educated are more likely to experience childbirth within six years compared to others. In addition, female smoking is negatively associated with the likelihood of childbirth, while no significant effect has been found for male health factors. Female health indicators explain some of the variation in fertility outcomes for women with lower secondary education compared to degree-educated women. However, education remains a significant predictor of the transition to higher order births, also after accounting for male and female health indicators. It is therefore important to consider both socio-economic and health factors in order to understand variations in fertility outcomes.
Impact of New Zealand teenagers' fertility intentions on childbearing
Sligo JL, Hohmann-Marriott BE, McAnally HM and Hancox RJ
To assess the impact of age 15 fertility intentions on childbearing outcomes three decades later.