NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL

New Evidence on the Cycle in the Women, Infants, and Children Program: What Happens When Benefits Expire
Bitler M, Cook J, Oh S and Rowberry P
We provide evidence of a benefit redemption cycle in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Using novel administrative data on item-level redemptions, we show that unlike SNAP, WIC redemptions peak at both the beginning and end of the month. Beginning-of-the-month excess redemptions are concentrated among more popular items such as infant formula, while end-of-the-month excess redemptions are concentrated among less popular items such as infant meats. We document that a substantial share of beneficiaries go at least one month without redeeming anything and discuss how administrative burdens may drive the WIC cycle.
CIGARETTE TAXES AND TEEN MARIJUANA USE
Anderson DM, Matsuzawa K and Sabia JJ
The spillover effect of cigarette taxes on youth marijuana use has been the subject of intense public debate. Opponents of cigarette taxes warn that tax hikes will cause youths to substitute toward marijuana. On the other hand, public health experts often claim that because tobacco is a "gateway" drug, higher cigarette taxes will deter youth marijuana use. Using data from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) for the period 1991-2017, we explore the relationship between state excise taxes on cigarettes and teen marijuana use. In general, our results fail to support either of the above hypotheses. Rather, we find little evidence to suggest that teen marijuana use is sensitive to changes in the state cigarette tax. This null result holds for the sample period where cigarette taxes are observed to have the largest effect on teen cigarette use and across a number of demographic groups in the data. Finally, we find preliminary evidence that the recent adoption of state e-cigarette taxes is associated with a reduction in youth marijuana use.
BORROWING FROM THE FUTURE? 401(K) PLAN LOANS AND LOAN DEFAULTS
Lu TJ, Mitchell OS, Utkus SP and Young JA
Most employers permit 401(k) plan participants to borrow from their retirement plan assets. Using an administrative dataset tracking over 800 plans for five years, we show that 20 percent of workers borrow at any given time, and almost 40 percent borrow at some point over five years. Also, workers borrow more when a plan permits multiple loans. Ninety percent of loans are repaid, but 86 percent of workers changing jobs with a loan default on the outstanding balance. We estimate that $5 billion per year in defaulted plan loans generate federal revenues of $1 billion annually, more than previously thought.
THE EFFECT OF TAX PREFERENCES ON HEALTH SPENDING
Cogan JF, Hubbard RG and Kessler DP
In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tax preference for health insurance on health care spending using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys from 1996-2005. We use the fact that Social Security taxes are only levied on earnings below a statutory threshold to identify the impact of the tax preference. Because employer-sponsored health insurance premiums are excluded from Social Security payroll taxes, workers who earn just below the Social Security tax threshold receive a larger tax preference for health insurance than workers who earn just above it. We find a significant effect of the tax preference, consistent with previous research.
The marriage tax and the rate and timing of marriage
Sjoquist DL and Walker MB
"The effect of the differential tax treatment of married and unmarried couples, the so-called marriage tax, on the rate and timing of [U.S.] marriages is analyzed. Using time-series data, we study the effect of the marriage tax on the fraction of unmarried women over the age of 15 years who marry in each year. We find no effect. We also investigate whether couples shift the timing of their marriage from the end of one year to the beginning of the next year in response to an increase in the marriage tax. We find empirical support for this behavior."
Does the income tax affect marital decisions?
Alm J and Whittington LA
"This paper discusses new empirical evidence on the role of income tax incentives in marital decisions [in the United States]. Time-series evidence suggests that taxes have a small but statistically significant effect on the aggregate marriage rate; however, this evidence is sensitive to the time period and the measure of marriage. Additional evidence, based on household longitudinal data, indicates that the probability of marriage falls and that of divorce rises with an increase in the so-called marriage tax, and that the timing of marriage (though not of divorce) is also affected by taxes. In short, there is strong evidence that taxes affect some marital decisions."
Financing child care: who will pay for the kids?
Reishus D
Simulating alternative social security responses to the demographic transition
Auerbach AJ and Kotlikoff LJ
"This paper uses a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model to examine the dynamic economic effects of baby 'booms' and baby 'busts' as well as the interaction of such demographic changes with social security policy. Demographic change can have sizeable short and long-run effects on saving rates and factors returns." The geographic focus is on the United States. "The model predicts long-run improvement in welfare associated with a prolonged baby bust. This improvement holds even in the absence of accommodating social security policy. It reflects a long-run decline in the dependency ratio, with the reduction in dependent children per worker more than offsetting the increase in retirees per worker."