In the traditional retirement scenario, individuals work full-time or part-time until a given age, and then stop working abruptly. From the individual's point of view, it seems more attractive to have a smooth transition, with gradual retirement. In Sweden and other European countries, specific gradual retirement programs have been created in the past 20 years, first in combination with early retirement programs and later to increase labour market participation of older workers. This paper surveys the existing literature on gradual retirement in the US and Europe and analyzes the relevance of gradual retirement in the Netherlands as a tool to keep people employed longer.

We study medical progress within a two-sector economy of overlapping generations subject to endogenous mortality. Individuals demand health care with a view to lowering mortality over their life-cycle. We characterise the individual optimum and the general equilibrium, and study the impact of a major medical innovation leading to an improvement in the effectiveness of health care. We find that general equilibrium effects dampen strongly the increase in health care usage following medical innovation. Moreover, an increase in savings offsets the negative impact on GDP per capita of a decline in the support ratio. Finally, we show that the reallocation of resources between the final goods and health care sector, following the innovation, plays a crucial role in shaping the general equilibrium impact.

Using panel data on the age group 50-70 in 15 European countries, we analyze the effects of providing informal care to parents, parents-in-law, stepparents, and grandparents on employment status and work hours. We account for fixed individual effects and test for endogeneity of caregiving using moments exploiting standard instruments (e.g., parental death) as well as higher-order moment conditions (Lewbel instruments). Specification tests suggest that informal care provision and daily caregiving can be treated as exogenous variables. We find a significant and negative effect of daily caregiving on employment status and work hours. This effect is particularly strong for women. On the other hand, providing care at a weekly (or less than weekly) frequency does not significantly affect paid work. We do not find evidence of heterogeneous effects of caregiving on paid work across European regions.

This paper aims to analyze the determinants of cash usage in a selection of European Union (EU) countries over the 2003-2016 period, based on a set of technological, socioeconomic, and socio-cultural indicators and cost components. Our results reveal the existence of both common and region-specific determinants for the EU advanced and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In both groups cash usage is determined by payment system characteristics. Additionally, in the EU advanced countries cash usage can also be explained by the level of economic development and income inequalities and proliferation of Internet. In contrast, cash usage in CEE countries is negatively associated with consumer confidence and is inversely related to the technological progress, expressed in terms of mobile users.

We explore the impact of COVID-19 hotspots and regional lockdowns on the Dutch labour market during the outbreak of COVID-19. Using weekly administrative panel microdata for 50 per cent of Dutch employees until the end of March 2020, we study whether individual labour market outcomes, as measured by employment, working hours and hourly wages, were more strongly affected in provinces where COVID-19 confirmed cases, hospitalizations and mortality were relatively high. The evidence suggests that labour market outcomes were negatively affected in all regions and local higher virus case numbers did not reinforce this decline. This suggests that preventive health measures should be at the regional level, isolating hotspots from low-risk areas.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s10645-021-09389-y.].

There has been a pronounced increase in online shopping since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the effect of the pandemic on demand for online grocery shopping specifically, using municipality-level data from a Dutch online supermarket. We find that an additional hospital admission increased app traffic by 7.3 percent and sales per order by 0.31 percent. Local hospital admissions do not correlate with the variety of groceries ordered, but online search behavior does, suggesting that hoarding behavior is driven by the general perception and impact of the virus rather than local conditions. Local COVID-19 conditions also have different effects in urban versus non-urban municipalities, with local hospital admissions increasing app traffic in urban areas but lowering sales per order as compared to non-urban areas. It remains to be seen whether the demand for online grocery shopping will permanently increase as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trust in banks is key, especially in turbulent times. Using unique daily data for a representative panel of Dutch consumers, we examine to what extent the COVID-crisis has affected trust in banks' payment services. We have the following main findings. First, COVID-19 measures have affected trust in banks' payment services. The first lockdown increased narrow-scope trust (trust in consumers' own bank payment services) and broad-scope trust (trust in banks' payment services in general). The second lockdown decreased both notions of trust. The crisis measures impacted the trust of the elderly the strongest. Second, personal characteristics are significantly related to trust in banks' payment services. For example, we find that both types of trust are increasing with digital literacy and the ease of getting by with income. Third, narrow-scope trust is higher than broad-scope trust. The gap between trust in the own bank and trust in banks in general is highest for customers of small banks.

This research documents employment opportunities of labour-market entrants during the COVID-19 crisis in the Netherlands. Two recent cohorts of graduates are studied and compared to two pre-COVID-19 cohorts: the 2019 cohort was unexpectedly hit by the COVID-19 crisis about six months after entering the labour market and the 2020 cohort graduated and entered the labour market in the midst of a lockdown. Our estimation results suggest short-term effects of lockdowns on employment probabilities, specifically for relatively lower educated labour-market entrants. The effects appear to be relatively small in size and seem to fade when the lockdown measures are eased. Men seem to have suffered more than women and some sectors are hit harder than others, which could result in short-run mismatches. Overall the effects appear to be less severe than during an economic recession, which is most likely due to the tight labour market and the strong measures taken by the government to mitigate the labour-market impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Trust in pension providers by participants is essential because pension providers try to fulfill their pension promises in a fundamentally uncertain world. Reforms and crises are therefore the ultimate testing ground for pension trust. In this paper we estimate with repeated cross-sectional survey data how trust and distrust in Dutch pension funds and the government have evolved over the period 2004-2021 and what the impact of financial stability on trust in these two institutions has been. Financial stability of pension funds, measured by their funding ratio, is shown to affect trust positively, but it does not decrease distrust significantly. Based on the estimation results, achieving a situation where the majority of the adult population trusts pension funds is likely to be attained at funding ratios of 115 or higher. Financial stability of government (measured by government debt/GDP ratio) does not affect either trust or distrust levels. Underlying drivers of distrust and trust such as personal characteristics are also notable: self-employed are more prone to distrust pension funds than employees. Women are more than men likely to take a neutral position.

The central question in this paper is whether a market economy can theoretically and empirically deal with sustainability. A system analysis of the current neoclassical theory shows that the system components (goal function, interaction mechanisms, actors and outcomes) are predominantly defined in terms of economic growth and facilitated by market exchange. This fosters (over)production and consumption of private goods, crowding out public goods and preservation of the commons. The one size fits all 'economic mechanism design' cannot deliver social outcomes regarding sustainability. The explicit recognition that an economy has different domains (ecological, social, economic) broadens the options for incorporating sustainability within the economic system. This richer framework allows us to analyse the economic problem at hand: an efficient economic system in an inclusive society within biophysical boundaries. We show that the alternative for market economics does not only have to be government intervention but can also include private forms of collective decision-making.

We apply the synthetic control method to a case study of the Dutch State Treasury Agency's funding policy. We study empirically what effect a change in funding strategy by the Dutch treasury had on market conditions. First, our results suggest that introducing more uncertainty to the funding policy, by means of a target range for capital market issuances, does not lead to a higher risk premium on Dutch government debt. Second, our paper shows that the synthetic control method, or the related constrained regression, is more suitable than a difference-in-differences method for this particular case study. The synthetic control method and constrained regression only include control units that are similar to the Netherlands. The difference-in-differences estimator includes all control countries, even ones that are not similar to the Netherlands. The difference-in-differences estimates incorrectly suggest that introducing more uncertainty in the funding policy leads to a higher risk premium. This shows that synthetic control and constrained regression are in some cases more suitable than a standard difference-in-differences. Furthermore, the synthetic control and constrained regression results hold when time and unit placebo tests are applied, whereas difference-in-differences results are not robust for this case study.

This paper analyzes the impact of automatic wage indexation on employment. To boost competitiveness and increase employment, Belgium suspended its automatic wage indexation system in 2015. This resulted in a 2% fall in real wages for all workers. In the absence of a suitable control group, we use machine learning for the counterfactual analysis. We artificially construct the control group for a difference-in-difference analysis based on the pre-treatment evolution of treated firms. We find a positive impact on employment of 1.2%, which corresponds to a labor demand elasticity of - 0.6. This effect is more pronounced for manufacturing firms, where the elasticity reaches - 1. These results show that a suspension of the automatic wage indexation mechanism can be effective in preserving employment.

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its 'Global Britain' strategy in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that 'Global Britain' yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that secession from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be offset when secession from the UK is combined with regained EU membership.